Defeating Authoritarian Leaders in Postcommunist Countries ( Cambridge Studies in Contentious Politics )

Publication series :Cambridge Studies in Contentious Politics

Author: Valerie J. Bunce; Sharon L. Wolchik  

Publisher: Cambridge University Press‎

Publication year: 2011

E-ISBN: 9781139089357

P-ISBN(Paperback): 9781107006850

Subject: D082 Democracy, human rights, civil rights

Keyword: 政治理论

Language: ENG

Access to resources Favorite

Disclaimer: Any content in publications that violate the sovereignty, the constitution or regulations of the PRC is not accepted or approved by CNPIEC.

Defeating Authoritarian Leaders in Postcommunist Countries

Description

From 1998 to 2005, six elections took place in postcommunist Europe that had the surprising outcome of empowering the opposition and defeating authoritarian incumbents or their designated successors. Valerie J. Bunce and Sharon L. Wolchik compare these unexpected electoral breakthroughs. They draw three conclusions. First, the opposition was victorious because of the hard and creative work of a transnational network composed of local opposition and civil society groups, members of the international democracy assistance community and graduates of successful electoral challenges to authoritarian rule in other countries. Second, the remarkable run of these upset elections reflected the ability of this network to diffuse an ensemble of innovative electoral strategies across state boundaries. Finally, elections can serve as a powerful mechanism for democratic change. This is especially the case when civil society is strong, the transfer of political power is through constitutional means, and opposition leaders win with small mandates.

Chapter

The Design of This Study

Key Terms

Organization and Arguments

2 Electoral Stability and Change in Mixed Regimes

Regime Vulnerability

It’s the Elections, Stupid

Electoral Strategies

International Diffusion

Conclusions

Part II: Case Studies

3 The 1998 Elections in Slovakia and the 2000 Elections in Croatia: The Model Solidifies and Is Transferred

Early Precedents: Romania and Bulgaria

Slovakia and Croatia on the Eve: The Context

The Slovak Democratic Coalition and OK’98

The Opposition Unites

Civil Society Organizations and Activities

The Role of Outside Actors

The Lessons of OK’98

The Slovak Example Moves to Croatia

The Opposition Coalesces

Civil Society in Croatia

The Role of Outside Actors

Conclusion

4 Defeating a Dictator at the Polls and in the Streets: The 2000 Yugoslav Elections

Domination in the Face of Disaster

Yugoslavia as a Mixed Regime

Strategic Interactions: Regime and Opposition

The Public Problem

The Ironic Consequences of Hard-Line Politics in Serbia, 1998 to 1999

The Rise of Otpor and CESID

Shifts in U.S. Policy

Missteps by a Master

Conclusions

5 Ukraine: The Orange Revolution

Ukrainian Politics after Independence

Opposition Cohesion

Civil Society and Citizens’ Mobilization

Other Actors: Business, the Security Forces, the Court, and Parliament

Outside Actors: Another “Engineered” Revolution?

Conclusion

6 Georgia and Kyrgyzstan: Fraudulent Parliamentary Elections, Mass Protests, and Presidential Abdications

Soviet and Georgian Disintegration

Regime Decline

Electoral Strategies of the Opposition

The 2005 Election in Kyrgyzstan

The Akaev Regime

Endgame

Conclusions

7 Failed Cases:Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Belarus

Azerbaijan, 2005 and 2003

The Regime

The Opposition Unifies

NGOs and the Media

The Role of Outside Actors

The Armenian Elections of 2003 and 2008

The Regime

The Opposition

Civil Society

Protesting Another Fraudulent Election

The Role of Outside Actors

Belarus in 2006

The 2001 Presidential Elections: Dress Rehearsal

The 2006 Presidential Elections

The Political Opposition Unifies

The Political Opposition Unifies

Civil Society Disarmed

Protest in Minsk

Outside Actors

Conclusion

Part III: Comparative Analyses

8 Explaining Divergent Electoral Outcomes: Regime Strength, International Democracy Assistance, and Electoral Dynamics

Regime Vulnerability and Electoral Continuity and Change

Political Pluralism and Economic Performance

Regime Capacity

The Case against Structural and Institutional Accounts

Variations among the Elections

International Democracy Assistance

Electoral Innovations

The Endogeneity Challenge

Conclusions

9 The Electoral Model: Evolution and Elements

Democratizing Elections: Premises

Opposition Unity

Electoral Procedures and Civil Society

Politics as Usual

Inventing the Model

Early Experiments

Moving to the Postcommunist Region

The Benefits of the Electoral Approach

Other Beneficiaries

Conclusions

10 The Cross-National Diffusion of Democratizing Elections

Burden of Proof

Diffusion: Definitions and Patterns

Supportive Factors

Competing Explanations

Patterns of Diffusion

Debating Diffusion

Competing Interpretations

U.S. Orchestration

The Benefits of the Electoral Model

Similar Conditions: Objective and Subjective Similarities

Self-Interest

Transnational Networks

Conclusions

11 After the Elections: Explaining Divergent Regime Trajectories

What Difference Did Success Make?

Variation among Successful Cases

Explaining Differing Developments after Successful Ousters of Authoritarian Leaders

Implications for Democratization

12 Conclusions: Democratizing Elections, International Diffusion, and U.S. Democracy Assistance

Negative Findings: Structural and Institutional Factors

The Electoral Model

International Diffusion

International Democracy Assistance

Postelection Trajectories

Mixed Regimes

Elections and Democratization

International Diffusion of Democracy

Two Cheers for Democracy Assistance?

Appendix: List of Interviews

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Bulgaria

Georgia

Kyrgyzstan

Serbia

Slovakia

Ukraine

Multiple Cases

Roundtables

Index

The users who browse this book also browse


No browse record.