Uncertain Science ... Uncertain World

Author: Henry N. Pollack  

Publisher: Cambridge University Press‎

Publication year: 2005

E-ISBN: 9780511074653

P-ISBN(Paperback): 9780521619103

Subject: N49 popular editions

Keyword: 自然科学教育与普及

Language: ENG

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Uncertain Science ... Uncertain World

Description

Is the world warming due to the Greenhouse Effect? Can nuclear weapon arsenals be relied upon without periodic testing? Is the world running out of oil? What action should be taken against an outbreak of foot-and-mouth or BSE? Why can't scientists provide certain answers to these and many other questions? The uncertainty of science is puzzling. It arises when scientists have more than one answer to a problem or disagree amongst themselves. In this engaging book, Henry Pollack guides the reader through the maze of contradiction and uncertainty, acquainting them with the ways that uncertainty arises in science, how scientists accommodate and make use of uncertainty, and how in the face of uncertainty they reach their conclusions. Taking examples from recent science headlines and every day life, Uncertain Science … Uncertain World enables the reader to evaluate uncertainty from their own perspectives, and find out more about how science actually works.

Chapter

SOWERS OF UNCERTAINTY

"PEOPLE LOVE SCIENCE. THEY JUST DON’T UNDERSTAND IT"

TESTING, TESTING…

3 Can the media help?

THE SCIENTISTS

THE MEDIA

IT’S TOUGH TO GET IT RIGHT

4 Unfamiliarity breeds uncertainty

GETTING OUR ATTENTION

CLIMATE IS WHAT YOU EXPECT, WEATHER IS WHAT YOU GET

BEYOND THE HORIZON

AT A SNAIL’S PACE

REARRANGING THE FURNITURE

CAN SMALL CHANGES HAVE BIG IMPACTS?

AN EVOLUTIONARY SPECULATION

5 Fever or chill?

STANDARD MEASURES

LOST AT SEA

“THE EAGLE HAS LANDED”

COUNTING VOTES

BEYOND MEASUREMENTS

COUNTING PEOPLE

READING BETWEEN THE LINES

6 A fifty–fifty chance

STATISTICS AND PROBABILITIES

MISUNDERSTANDING PROBABILITIES

THE HUNDRED-YEAR FLOOD

ESTIMATING FROM SAMPLES

CENSUS TAKING

7 I’m not quite sure how this works…

CONCEPTUAL MODELS

INCOMPLETE CONCEPTUALIZATIONS

FLAWED CONCEPTUALIZATIONS

CONTINENTS ADRIFT

IN AND OUT OF RUTS

PHYSICAL MODELS

NUMERICAL MODELS

SOCIAL SECURITY

8 Let’s see what happens if…

INSIDE THE EARTH

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS

THE AMERICA'S CUP

TESTING NUCLEAR WEAPONS

EXPERIMENTS IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES

INADVERTENT EXPERIMENTS

THE OZONE HOLE

CHANGING CLIMATE

9 Reconstructing the past

A PLANE IS DOWN…

IN THE COURTROOM

SUBMERGED

BAYES AND BOREHOLES

CORRELATION AND CAUSATION

IDEOLOGICAL DISTORTION

10 Predicting the future

SEEING THE FUTURE

GETTING IT WRONG

DEFICIT OR SURPLUS?

RUNNING OUT OF OIL?

CLIMATE OF THE FUTURE

11 Out of the blue

EMERGENCY AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS

INSURANCE

SURPRISES

CLIMATE SURPRISES

AN OUNCE OF PREVENTION…

THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE: BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY

12 In a climate of uncertainty

HAS EARTH BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST CENTURY?

WHAT ARE THE CAUSES OF THE CHANGE?

Solar variability

Changes in the greenhouse

Atmospheric particles

What drivers of change are significant?

WHAT WILL BE THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE CHANGE?

WHAT CAN BE DONE TO REMEDIATE OR ACCOMMODATE THE CHANGE?

Index

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