Chapter
Part I Roots And Causes Of Complexity And Contingency In Water Problems
Chapter One Complexity and Contingency: Understanding and Managing Complex Water Problems
From Clock to Confusion: Origin of Complexity
Complexity Science: Foundational Ideas and Concepts
Complicated and Complex Systems
Different Faces of Complexity Science
Diagnosis of Sources of Complexity
Systems Engineering and Complex Systems
Understanding the Complexity of Water
Water: Object or a Resource?
Sources of Complexity in Water: Interactions of Knowledge and Political Communities
Complexity Introduced through Growth in Know- How in the Knowledge Community
Complexity Introduced through Competing Values and Interests in the Political Community
Managing Complexity of Water Resources
Complexity Creates Contingency
Contingent Management of Water Resources: Search for Actionable Space
Chapter Two Leveraging Diplomacy For Resolving Transboundary Water Problems
Transboundary Waters: Conflict and Peace
Transboundary Water and Hydro-Diplomacy
International Community and Transboundary Water Management
Need for a Strategic Approach
Part II Tools, Techniques, Models And Analyses To Resolve Complex Water Problems
Chapter Three Ten Bankruptcy Methods for Resolving Natural Resource Allocation Conflicts
Bankruptcy Solution Methods
Adjusted Proportional (AP)
Constrained Equal Award (CEA)
Constrained Equal Loss (CEL)
Constrained Egalitarian (CE)
Generalized IBN Ezra (GIE)
Chapter Four Flexible Design Of Water Infrastructure Systems
Recognizing Uncertainty in Planning
Conventional Approaches to Water Resources Planning
Decision Analysis and Scenario Planning
Sources of Flexibility in Design
Flexibility Analysis Method
Chapter Five Extreme Value Analysis for Modeling Nonstationary Hydrologic Change
Background on Extreme Value Theory for Hydrologic Frequency Analysis
Extreme Value Models under Nonstationarity
Estimation of Design Quantiles
Uncertainty in Estimation of Design Quantiles
Alternate Approaches for Risk Communication
Chapter Six The Water–Food Nexus And Virtual Water Trade
Drivers of Virtual Water Trade
Methods for Network Reconstruction
Trade, Inequality and the Right to Water
Virtues and Vices of Virtual Water Trade
Chapter Seven A Hybrid Analytical Approach For Modeling The Dynamics Of Interactions For Complex Water Problems
Knowledge Gaps and Research Questions
A Hybrid Network Model for a Coupled Natural and Societal System
Accounting for Subjectivity and Non-linearity in a System’s Agent Behavior
Negotiating Transboundary Water Issues: Application of the Network Model
Assumptions Related to the Network Model
Average Annual Growth Rate (AVR)
Overall System Performance (OSP)
Synergistic Response Per Agent (SPI)
Competitive Response Per Agent (CPI)
Equity in Benefit Sharing (EBS)
Dynamics of Interactions among Agents
Scenario Analyses and Findings
Analysis of Optimal System Connectivity
Emergence of Structural Attractors and the System Self-Organization Property
Sensitivity analysis of agent behavior and associated system response
Sensitivity of System Competition and Resource Parameters
Chapter Eight A Call for Capacity Development for Improved Water Diplomacy
Columbia River Treaty Review Transboundary Dialogue: A Case Study in Capacity Development for Water Diplomacy
Capacity Development for Improved Water Diplomacy
Individual Capacity Development Training in Water Conflict Management
Institutional Capacity Development in Facilitation and Mediation
Society’s Capacities–Public Participation
The Four Worlds of Conflict Transformation Applied to Capacity Development
Conclusions and Recommendations
Chapter Nine Water Complexity And Physics-Guided Data Mining
The Grand Water Challenge
Climate Stress on Water Systems
Water as a Data Challenge
Physics-Guided Data Mining
Premise of Physics-Guided Data Mining
Case Study I: Statistical Downscaling
Case Study II: Uncertainty Quantification
Case Study III: Role of Internal Variability in Climate Change
Chapter Ten The Nature of Enabling Conditions of Transboundary Water Management: Learning From the Negotiation ...
Introduction: The Complexity of Transboundary Water Management
The Contingency of Cooperation under Complexity
Negotiation of the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan
Enabling Condition I: Active Recognition of Interdependence among Contending Stakeholders
Enabling Condition II: Framing Mutual Interests through Joint Fact-Finding and Creating Mutual Benefits
Enabling Condition III: Monitor Agreements through a Joint Authority and Build Up Its Capacity to ...
Negotiation of the Peace Treaty between Israel and Jordan
Enabling Condition I: Active Recognition of Interdependence among Contending Stakeholders
Enabling Condition II: Framing Mutual Interests through Joint Fact-Finding and Creating Mutual Benefits
Enabling Condition III: Monitoring Agreements through a Joint Authority and Building Their Capacity to ...
Chapter Eleven Mediation In The Israeli–Palestinian Water Conflict: A Practitioner’S View
Adaptive Water Management and Water Mediation
Case Study 1. NGO-Based Integrated and Transboundary Master Plan for the Lower Jordan River Basin
Case Study 2. Water Annex of the Geneva Accord
A Framework for Analyzing Different Levels of Policy Learning
Stakeholder Assessment and Engagement
GI Water Annex: Stakeholder Engagement
Master Plan LJRBL: Stakeholder Engagement
GI Water Annex: Joint Fact-Finding
Master Plan LJRB: Joint Fact-Finding
Facilitating Multiparty Problem-Solving
GI Water Annex: Multiparty Problem-Solving
Master Plan LJRB: Multiparty Problem-Solving
Developing Forms of Agreement That Take Adaptive Management into Account
GI Water Annex: Forms of Agreement
Master Plan LJRB: Forms of Agreement
Assessment of Policy Learning
Discussion: From Zero-Sum to Mutual Gains
Chapter Twelve Risk Distribution and the Adoption of Flexibility: Desalination Expansion in Qatar
Public–Private Partnerships and Their Risks
Case Study: Desalination in Qatar
Inflexible Design Base Case
Uncertainty Consideration
Waterfall Analysis and Results
Risk Analysis and Results for Risk-Neutral Participants
Risk Analysis and Results for Risk-Averse Participants
Reflections on Case Study
Chapter 13 The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Conflict and Water Diplomacy in the Nile Basin
Nile Basin Water in Perspective
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
Approaches to Analyzing and Synthesizing GERD
Efficient Use of Nile Water
Chapter Fourteen Engaging Stakeholders for Water Diplomacy: Lessons For Integrated Water Resources Management
Engagement for Water Diplomacy and Its Expectations
Concepts Leading to Practice: Frameworks and Models
Continuum of Engagement Levels
Stakeholder Analysis and Salience
Frameworks and Models on Specific Features
Responsible Treatment of Stakeholders
Sample Surveys versus Action Conversations
Engagement for Adaptive and Integrated Management
Impact of Trust on Participation Strategy
Techniques and Modelling Tools in Engagement
Techniques for Engaging Stakeholders
Lower-Level Involvement Techniques
Higher-Level Involvement Techniques
Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) Techniques
Modelling Tools for Engaging Stakeholders
Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS)
Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Models
Bayesian Belief Network (BN)
Lessons from the Stakeholder Engagement Process
What Can We Do to Achieve Effective Stakeholder Engagement?
Chapter Fifteen Strategic Insights For California’S Delta Conflict
California’s Delta Crisis
Delta Salinity and Deteriorating Water Quality
Delta Ecosystem Degradation
Water Resources Availability and Management
Method: Graph Model for Conflict Resolution
Upstream and In-Delta Water Users
Preparing Input Information for GMCR II
Generation and Elimination Scenario
Specifying DM Preferences
Water Diplomacy in Action
：Contingent Approaches to Managing Complex Water Problems
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