Misconceptions of Risk

Author: Terje Aven  

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc‎

Publication year: 2009

E-ISBN: 9780470686560

P-ISBN(Hardback):  9780470683880

Subject: F272.3 operating decisions

Language: ENG

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Description

We all face risks in a variety of ways, as individuals, businesses and societies. The discipline of risk assessment and risk management is growing rapidly and there is an enormous drive for the implementation of risk assessment methods and risk management in organizations. There are great expectations that these tools provide suitable frameworks for obtaining high levels of performance and balance different concerns such as safety and costs.

The analysis and management of risk are not straightforward. There are many challenges. The risk discipline is young and there area a number of ideas, perspectives and conceptions of risk out there. For example many analysts and researchers consider it appropriate to base their risk management policies on the use of expected values, which basically means that potential losses are multiplied with their associated consequences. However, the rationale for such a policy is questionable.

A number of such common conceptions of risk are examined in the book, related to the risk concept, risk assessments, uncertainty analyses, risk perception, the precautionary principle, risk management and decision making under uncertainty. The Author discusses these concepts, their strenghts and weaknesses, and concludes that they are often better judged as misconceptions of risk than conceptions of risk.

Key Features:

  • Discusses common conceptions of risk with supporting examples.
  • Provides recommendations and guidance to risk analysis and risk management.
  • Relevant for all types of applications, including engineering and business.
  • Presents the Author’s overall conclusions on the issues addressed throughout the book.

All those working with risk-related problems need to understand the fundamental ideas and concepts of risk. Professionals in the field of risk, as well as researchers and graduate sutdents will benefit from this book. Policy makers and business people will also find this book of interest.

Chapter

Contents

pp.:  1 – 7

Preface

pp.:  7 – 9

Acknowledgements

pp.:  9 – 11

3 Risk equals a probability distribution quantile (value-at-risk)

pp.:  29 – 47

4 Risk equals uncertainty

pp.:  47 – 55

5 Risk is equal to an event

pp.:  55 – 67

6 Risk equals expected disutility

pp.:  67 – 73

7 Risk is restricted to the case of objective probabilities

pp.:  73 – 83

8 Risk is the same as risk perception

pp.:  83 – 95

9 Risk relates to negative consequences only

pp.:  95 – 105

10 Risk is determined by the historical data

pp.:  105 – 109

11 Risk assessments produce an objective risk picture

pp.:  109 – 119

12 There are large inherent uncertainties in risk analyses

pp.:  119 – 127

13 Model uncertainty should be quantified

pp.:  127 – 147

14 It is meaningful and useful to distinguish between stochastic and epistemic uncertainties

pp.:  147 – 157

15 Bayesian analysis is based on the use of probability models and bayesian updating

pp.:  157 – 161

16 Sensitivity analysis is a type of uncertainty analysis

pp.:  161 – 179

17 The main objective of risk management is risk reduction

pp.:  179 – 191

18 Decision-making under uncertainty should be based on science (analysis)

pp.:  191 – 203

19 The precautionary principle and risk management cannot be meaningfully integrated

pp.:  203 – 227

20 Conclusions

pp.:  227 – 239

Index

pp.:  239 – 251

LastPages

pp.:  251 – 252

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