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Diagnosis and reduction of bullwhip in supply chains

Author: McCullen Peter   Towill Denis  

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing Ltd

ISSN: 1359-8546

Source: Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, Vol.7, Iss.3, 2002-08, pp. : 164-179

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Abstract

"Bullwhip" describes the general tendency for small changes in end-customer demand to be amplified within a production-distribution system. A 10 per cent increase in sales to end-customers can precipitate a 40 per cent upswing in production and subsequent downswing (as excess stocks are depleted) within a three-echelon supply chain. It is shown how proven material flow control principles significantly reduce bullwhip in a global supply chain. The evidence demonstrates that a methodology, which has evolved over several decades, provides a suitable framework for effective change. Bullwhip is not a new problem; it is a new name coined to describe a very well-known problem. Some observed barriers to change are briefly reviewed.