Computing Risk for Oil Prospects: Principles and Programs :Principles and Programs ( Volume 14 )

Publication subTitle :Principles and Programs

Publication series :Volume 14

Author: Harbaugh   J. W.;Davis   J. C.;Wendebourg   J.  

Publisher: Elsevier Science‎

Publication year: 1995

E-ISBN: 9780080529509

P-ISBN(Paperback): 9780080418902

P-ISBN(Hardback):  9780080418902

Subject: P5 Geology

Language: ENG

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Description

The petroleum industry is enduring difficult financial times because of the continuing depressed price of crude oil on the world market. This has caused major corporate restructuring and reductions in staff throughout the industry. Because oil exploration must now be done with fewer people under more difficult economic constraints, it is essential that the most effective and efficient procedures be used. Computing Risk for Oil Prospects describes how prospect risk assessment — predicting the distribution of financial gains or losses that may result from the drilling of an exploration well — can be done using objective procedures implemented on personal computers. The procedures include analyses of historical data, interpretation of geological and geophysical data, and financial calculations to yield a spectrum of the possible consequences of decisions. All aspects of petroleum risk assessment are covered, from evaluating regional resources, through delineating an individual prospect, to calculation of the financial consequences of alternative decisions and their possible results. The bottom lines are given both in terms of the probable volumes of oil that may be discovered and the expected monetary returns. Statistical procedures are linked with computer mapping and interpretation algorithms, which feed their results directly into routines for financial analysis. The programs in the included library of computer programs are tailored to fit seamlessly together, and are

Chapter

Front Cover

pp.:  1 – 4

Copyright Page

pp.:  5 – 8

CONTENTS

pp.:  8 – 11

Foreword

pp.:  11 – 12

Preface: Getting Things Rolling

pp.:  12 – 16

Chapter 2. Field Size Distributions

pp.:  44 – 70

Chapter 3. Success, Sequence, and Gambler’s Ruin

pp.:  70 – 86

Chapter 4. Estimating Discovery Size from Prospect Size

pp.:  86 – 104

Chapter 5. Outcome Probabilities and Success Ratios

pp.:  104 – 126

Chapter 6. Modeling Prospects

pp.:  126 – 152

Chapter 7. Mapping Properties and Uncertainties

pp.:  152 – 188

Chapter 8. Discriminating Discoveries and Dry Holes

pp.:  188 – 230

Chapter 9. Forecasting Cash Flow for a Prospect

pp.:  230 – 280

Chapter 10. The Worth of Money

pp.:  280 – 294

Chapter 11. RATS, Decision Tables, and Trees

pp.:  294 – 338

Chapter 12. Bringing it Together

pp.:  338 – 368

Bibliography

pp.:  368 – 398

Appendix A – SOFTWARE INSTALLATION of RISK: Software to perform probabilistic assessments and financial calculations in Computing Risk for Oil Prospects

pp.:  398 – 402

Appendix B – RISKSTAT MANUAL: Linked computer programs that perform statistical analyses in RISK

pp.:  402 – 420

Appendix C – RISKMAP MANUAL: Linked computer programs that perform the mapping function in RISK

pp.:  420 – 442

Appendix D – RISKTAB MANUAL: Linked computer programs that perform financial calculations in RISK

pp.:  442 – 458

Index

pp.:  458 – 468

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