Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration

Author： Lerche Ian;MacKay John A.

Publisher： Elsevier Science‎

Publication year： 1999

E-ISBN: 9780080505008

P-ISBN(Paperback): 9780124441651

P-ISBN(Hardback): 9780124441651

Subject： F407.22 oil & gas industry

Language： ENG

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Description

Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration provides a total framework for assessing the uncertainties associated with exploration risk from beginning to end. Numerous examples with accompanying microcomputer algorithms illustrate how to quantitatively approach economic risk. The text compares detailed assumptions and models of economic risk, and presents numerical examples throughout to facilitate hands-on calculations using popular spread-sheet packages on personal computers.

Covers economic risk from exploration through production models
Brings methods to a level where all can be done on a PC
Analyzes numerical examples from the real world
Removes "mystery" from how economics is done
Addresses assumptions in models and shows how they influence projections

Chapter

Front Cover

pp.： 1 – 4

Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration

pp.： 4 – 5

pp.： 5 – 6

Contents

pp.： 6 – 14

Preface

pp.： 14 – 18

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION

pp.： 18 – 34

CHAPTER 2. RISK-ADJUSTED VALUE AND WORKING INTEREST

pp.： 34 – 48

CHAPTER 3. UNCERTAINTY AND PROBABILITY ESTIMATES FOR RISK-ADJUSTED VALUES AND WORKING INTEREST

pp.： 48 – 72

CHAPTER 4. PORTFOLIO BALANCING AND RISK-ADJUSTED VALUES UNDER CONSTRAINED BUDGET CONDITIONS

pp.： 72 – 104

CHAPTER 5. SIMILARITY, DEPENDENCE , AND CORRELATlON CONSIDERATIONS FOR RISK-ADJUSTED VALUES AND WORKING INTEREST

pp.： 104 – 154

CHAPTER 6. MODIFICATIONS TO RISK AVERSION IN HIGH GAIN SITUATIONS

pp.： 154 – 180

CHAPTER 7. CORPORATE FUNDING REQUESTS, FIXED BUDGETS, AND COST BALANCING

pp.： 180 – 204

CHAPTER 8. MAXIMIZING OIL FIELD PROFIT IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY

pp.： 204 – 228

CHAPTER 9. THE VALUE OF ADDED INFORMATION: CATEGORIES OF WORTH

pp.： 228 – 244

CHAPTER 10. COUNTING SUCCESSES AND BIDDING STATISTICS ANALYSES

pp.： 244 – 284

CHAPTER 11. ECONOMIC MODEL UNCERTAINTIES

pp.： 284 – 298

CHAPTER 12. BAYESIAN UPDATING OF AN OPPORTUNITY

pp.： 298 – 318

CHAPTER 13. OPTIONS IN EXPLORATION RISK ANALYSIS

pp.： 318 – 368

Epilogue

pp.： 368 – 370

Appendix: Numerical Methods and Spreadsheets

pp.： 370 – 410

Bibliography

pp.： 410 – 418

Index

pp.： 418 – 422

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