Volatility Persistence and Switching ARCH in Japanese Stock Returns

Author: Mun Fong W.  

Publisher: Springer Publishing Company

ISSN: 1387-2834

Source: Financial Engineering and the Japanese Markets, Vol.4, Iss.1, 1997-01, pp. : 37-57

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Abstract

Standard ARCH-GARCH models usually impute a high degree of persistence to conditional volatility. This persistence may be spurious if the conditional volatility is subject to structural change. This paper applies the Switching ARCH(SWARCH) model of Hamilton and Susmel (1994) to investigate regime shifts and volatility persistence in the Japanese stock market. We find that the SWARCH model provides a better description of the data and implies a much lower degree of volatility persistence than conventional ARCH models.