Table of Figures

Abbreviations

PART ONE INTRODUCTION

1. The Oracle of Delphi and the Precautionary Principle

1.1. Setting the Stage

1.2. Purpose and Method

The Research Question

Method and Use of Terms

Scope: On Environment, Health and Security

1.3. A Brief Preview

PART TWO DEFINITION

2. Apollo's Tripod: Defining Rights and Duties under the Precautionary Principle

2.1. Unity in Diversity?

2.2. Risk: A Framework for Understanding the Precautionary Principle

2.3. Core Elements of the Precautionary Principle

The Precautionary Tripod

The Umbrella of Sustainable Development

3. First Leg of the Tripod: Threat of Environmental Harm

3.1. Threat of Environmental Harm

3.2. Threshold of 'Significant' Harm

Formulations Lacking a Threshold of Harm

'Significant' Harm as a Threshold

The Meaning of the Term 'Significant'

3.3. Threshold of 'Serious or Irreversible' Harm

'Serious or Irreversible' Harm as a Threshold

'Serious' Harm

'Irreversible' Harm

Combining the Thresholds of 'Significant' and 'Serious or Irreversible' Harm

3.4. Conclusions

4. Second Leg of the Tripod: Uncertainty

4.1. Uncertainty

Uncertainty Due to Lack of Information

Uncertainty Due to Complexity and Variability

Other Sources of Uncertainty

Quantifiable Risk, Uncertainty Proper and Ignorance

Uncertainty and the Scope of the Precautionary Principle

4.2. Asking the Right Question

Taking Action Because of Uncertainty

...Or Taking Action in Spite of Uncertainty?

In Search of the Maximum Tolerable Level of Uncertainty

4.3. A Threshold of Proof

The Existence of a Threshold of Proof

The Height ofthe Threshold of Proof

Jurisprudence and Doctrine

The Threshold of Reasonable Groundsf or Concern

4.4. Conclusions

5. Third Leg of the Tripod: Action 121 5.1. Action

5.1. Action

Some Observations on the Right and the Duty to Take Precautionary Action

5.2. Where? - The Reach of the Precautionary Principle

What Geographic Areas?

What Issue Areas?

What Activities?

5.3. When? - A Closer Look at Thresholds

Is the Anticipated Impact Adverse?

Is the Anticipated Impact Significant?

Is the Anticipated Impact Serious?

Is the Anticipated Impact Irreversible?

Are There Reasonable Grounds for Concern?

5.4. How? - Effectiveness and Proportionality

Effective Action

Proportional Action

5.5. Conclusions

6. Assembling the Tripod: Synthesis

The Right and the Duty of States to Take Precautionary Action Defined

PART THREE IMPLEMENTATION

7. Precautionary Measures

7.1. What Precautionary Measure(s)?

7.2. Typical Precautionary Measures in Practice

Precautionary Bans

Safety Margins

Precautionary Measures in the Context of Pollution

Research

Other Precautionary Measures

7.3. General Features of Precautionary Measures

Any Measure can be a Precautionary Measure

Guidelines for Choosing the Right Precautionary Action

Choosing Between One Risk and Another

The Duration of Precautionary Measures

7.4. Conclusions

8. The Precautionary Principle and the Burden of Proof

8.1. Precaution and Proof

The Traditional Model Versus the Precautionary Model

8.2. The Burden of Proof in Practice

The Precautionary Burden of Proof in State Practice and Jurisprudence at the International Level

The Precautionary Burden of Proof in State Practice at the National Level

The Big Picture

8.3. The Burden of Proof under the Precautionary Principle

Doctrine

The Burden of Proof under the Precautionary Principle in General International Law

8.4. Conclusions

9. The Precautionary Principle and Socio-Economic Interests

9.1. Precaution, People and Progress

Cost-Benefit Analysis as a Check on the Costs of Precautionary Action

The Socio-Economic Rationale of Precautionary Action

Cost-Benefit Analysis as Incompatible with Precautionary Action

A Middle Way

9.2. Socio-Economic Interests in Practice

State Practice and the Rationale of the Precautionary Principle

State Practice and Cost-Effectiveness

State Practice and the Balancing of Interests

9.3. Socio-Economic Interests under the Precautionary Principle

Socio-Economic Interests under the Precautionary Principle in General International Law

9.4. Conclusions

PART FOUR CONCLUSIONS

10.The Pythia Replaced: Conclusions

10.1. Bird's-Eye Vievv of Outcomes

Definition

Implementation

10.2. Putting the Outcomes in Perspective

Bibliography

Table of Instruments

Legally Binding International Instruments

Non-Legally Binding International Insrruments

European Union Instruments

Table of Cases

International Court of Justice

International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea

WTO Dispute Settlement

Arbitration

European Union Court ofJustice

National Cases

Country Index

Keyword Index