Chapter
Losses to Individual Workers
The Controversies and a Framework for Their Analysis
2. Measuring the Business Cycle
Definition of the Business Cycle
Reference Cycles Versus Specific Cycles
Leading, Lagging, and Coincident Indicators
The Business Cycle as a Unit
Appendixes for Reference to Data
3. History of the Business Cycle
Production for the Market
Production for Private Profit
The Spread of the Business Cycle
Stages in U.S. Capitalism
Long-Run Changes and Regularity in the Business Cycle
Cycles in the U.S. Economy
Consumption and Investment in Three Eras
Cyclical Movements of Income
4. Endogenous and Exogenous Cycle Theories
Critiques and Defenses of Say's Law
Three Arguments for Say's Law
Neoclassical-Keynesian Critique of Say's Law
Post-Keynesian Critique of Say's Law
The New Chssical Economists
Neoclassical Microfoundations Of Neoclassical-Keynesian Macroeconomics
Exogenous Shocks and Adjustment Barriers
Conclusions and Policy Implications of Exogenous Theories
Endogenous Theories of the Business Cycle
Demand Theories: The Multiplier-Accelerator Theory
Demand Theories: Underconsumption
Supply Theories: Real Overinvestment
Supply Theories: Monetary Overinvestment
Supply Theories: The Reserve Army
Profit Squeeze (Or the Nutcracker Effect) In Marx, Mitchell, Keynes, and Kalecki
The Framework of Analysis
The Method of Successive Approximations
Appendix 4.1: Marx on Reproduction and Growth
Part 2: The Basic Model—Demand and Supply over the Cycle
Keynes's View of Consumption
The Life Cycle Hypothesis
The Permanent Income Hypothesis
Evaluation of Neoclassical-Keynesian Theories
The Class Income Hypothesis
Workers' and Capitalists' Propensities to Consume
Propensity to Consume and Labor Share
6. Investment: The Profit Hypothesis
Consumption and Investment
Expectations and Uncertainty
Cost Theories of Investment
Investment, Profits, and Profit Rates, 1949-1970
Investment, Profits, and Profit Rates, 1970-1982
Time Lags in the Investment Process
Timing in Different Industries
Depreciation and Replacement
Tentative Conclusions on Investment
Appendix 6.1: Investment Equations
7. The Multiplier-Accelerator Model
Limitations and Qualifications of the Accelerator
The Investment Multiplier
Qualifications and Limitations of the Multiplier
The Multiplier-Accelerator Model
How the Multiplier-Accelerator Model Works
Appendix 7.1: Formalizing the Multiplier-Accelerator Model
8. Income Distribution: The Utilization- Unemployment Hypothesis
Framework and Definitions
Determinants of the Labor Share
The Overhead Labor Thesis
The Reserve Army Hypothesis
The Utilization-Unemployment Hypothesis
Present U.S. Income and Wealth Distribution
Problems with Measuring Profits, Wages, and Productivity
Cyclical Changes in Income Distribution, 1921-1938
Long-Run Changes from 1949-1970 to 1970-1982
Cyclical Pattern of Labor Income and Labor Share, 1949-1970
Wages and Productivity, 1949-1970
Labor Income and Labor Share, 1970-1982
Wages and Productivity, 1970-1982
Unemployment and Capacity Utilization
Explanation of Cyclical Movements of Labor Share by Cycle Phase
Appendix 8.1: Models of the Labor Share
9. Demand-Side Theories; The Underconsumption Hypothesis
Nonsocialist Underconsumptionist Long-Run Stagnation Theories
Socialist Underconsumptionist Long-Run Stagnation Theories
Criticisms of Underconsumptionist Long-Run Stagnation Theories
Marx and Underconsumption
Keynes and Underconsumption
An Underconsumptionist (Or Realization or Demand-Side) Business Cycle Theory
Operation of the Underconsumptionist Cycle Model
Evaluation of the Underconsumptionist Cycle Theory
Appendix 9.1: Formalizing the Underconsumption Cycle Model
10. Cost of Plant, Equipment, and Raw Materials
Theoretical Views of Capital Costs over the Cycle
Previous Empirical Studies of Differential Price Changes
Cyclical Price Movements, 1949-1970
Cyclical Price Movements, 1970-1982
Appendix 10.1: Formal Econometrics Expfoining the Ratio of Raw Materials Prices to Finished Goods Prices
11. Overinvestment and Reserve Army Theories of the Business Cycle: A Walk on the Supply Side
Marx on Cyclical Behavior of Short-Run Capital Costs
Nonmonetary Overinvestment Theory
Hayek's Theory of Capital Costs
An Overinvestment Model of the Cycle
Operation of the Overinvestment Theory
Evaluation of the Overinvestment Theory
Marx on the Reserve Army of Labor
A Reserve Army Theory of Long-Run Stagnation
A Reserve Army Cycle Theory
A Model of the Reserve Army Theory
Operation of the Reserve Army Model
Evaluation of the Reserve Army Cycle Theory
Appendix 11.1: Formalization of the Overinvestment and Reserve Army Modeh
12. Profits and Profit Rates
Definitions and Biases in Profit Data
Long-Run Profit Rate Trends
Weisskopf's Analysis of the Rate of Profit
Cyclical Behavior of Total Property Income and Corporate Profits, 1949-1970
Cyclical Behavior of Corporate Profits and Total Property Income, 1970-1982
Other Components of Property Income, 1970-1982
Cyclical Behavior of Profit Rates, 1949-1970
Cyclical Behavior of Profit Rates, 1970-1982
Comparison with Weisskopf's Findings
Disagreement with Weisskopf's Theoretical Conclusions
13. Profit Squeeze (Or Nutcracker) Theory of the Cycle: A Production-Realization Hypothesis
Karl Marx and Profit Squeeze (Or Nutcracker) Theory
John Maynard Keynes and Profit Squeeze (Or Nutcracker) Theory
Wesley Mitchell and Profit Squeeze (Or Nutcracker) Theory
Weisskopf Bowles, and Gordon on Profit Squeeze
Refaionships of the Profit Squeeze (Or Nutcracker) Theory
Operation of the Profit Squeeze Model
Evaluation of the Profit Squeeze (Or Nutcracker) Theory
Appendix 13.1: A Formal Model of the Profit Squeeze (Ornutcracker) Theory
Part 3: More Realistic Approximations
14. Credit and Financial Crises
Common Points in Marx, Keynes, and Mitchell
The Marxist Approach to Money and Crisis
Early Monetary and Monetary Overinvestment Theories
Historical Changes in the Finance System
Financial International Trends
Trends in the Interest Rate
The Increase in Cyclical Instablity
Continuity and Change in Financial Behavior
Money Supply and Velocity
Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates
The Timing of Real and Financial Factors
Conclusion: The Cyclical Role of Finance
Appendix 14.1: How Does Credit Modify the Profit Squeeze Model?
15. Monopoly Power and Business Cycles
Cyclical Inflation and Deflation Before World War II
Cyclical Price Behavior Since World War II
The Increase of Monopoly Power
Monopoly Power and Administered Prices
Explanation of Price Behavior
Monopoly and Profit Rates
Monopoly Profit Rates over the Cycle
Concentration by Multinational (Or Global) Firms
Appendix 15.1: A Profit Squeeze (Nutcracker) Model with Monopoly Power
Bibliographic Essay on Monopoly Power
16. The International Economy and Business Cycles
Decline of the U.S. Empire, Mid-1960s to the Present
Theory of Business Cycle Spread
Investment and Spread of Cycles
Behavior of Investment and Trade in the Great Depression
Cyclical Pattern of Imports and Exports Since World War II
International Finance and Transmission of Cycles
Previous Empirical Studies of Synchronization of Business Cycles
Data on Synchronization of Business Cycles
Appendix 16.1: Formal Model of International Cycles
17. Government Fiscal Behavior and the Business Cycle
The Endogeneity of Government Behavior
The Limited Impact of Fiscal Behavior
Long-Run Trends in Fiscal Behavior
Cyclical Spending Patterns in War and Peace
Total Federal Expenditures
Federal Receipts and Deficits
State and Local Fiscal Behavior over the Cycle
Cyclical Behavior of Total Government Fiscal Activity
Conflicting Interpretations of the Fiscal Data
Appendix 17.1: Government in a Formal Cycle Model
18. Can Reform Policies Lessen the Business Cycle Under Capitalism? Fiscal, Monetary, and Income Policies
Some Implications of the Analytic Conclusions
Neochssical-Keynesian Fiscal Policy
Administrative Constraints upon Fiscal Policy
Political Constraints upon Fiscal Policy
Economic Constraints upon Fiscal Policy
Impact of Monetary Policy
Limitations of Monetary Policy
Monetary Policy, Wages, and Inflation
Income Policy: Direct Controls on Wages and Prices
A Coherent Liberal Macro Policy
Problems with the Liberal Program
19 Can the Business Cycle Be Eliminated? Economic Democracy and Democratic Planning
International Implications
Democratic Planning Versus Soviet Planning
Full Employment: Institutions, Laws, and Performance
A. Definitions of Variables
B. Cycle Bases in Seven Cycles
C. Cycle Relatives, Average, Seven Cycles, 1949-1982
D. Cycle Relatives, Average, Four Cycles, 1949-1970
E. Cycle Relatives, Average, Three Cycles, 1970-1982
F. Growth per Quarter, Average, Seven Cycles, 1949-1982
G. Growth per Quarter, Average, Four Cycles, 1949-1970
H. Growth per Quarter, Average, Three Cycles, 1970-1982
The Business Cycle
：Growth and Crisis under Capitalism
( Princeton Legacy Library )
Disclaimer: Any content in publications that violate the sovereignty, the constitution or regulations of the PRC is not accepted or approved by CNPIEC.
