Description
Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles.
Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications.
An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide vari
Chapter
2.2 The Expansion Phase (1150–1260)
2.2 The Expansion Phase (1150–1260)
2.3 Stagflation (1260–1315)
2.3 Stagflation (1260–1315)
2.5 Depression (1400–1485)
2.5 Depression (1400–1485)
Chapter 3 Early Modern England: The Tudor-Stuart Cycle (1485–1730)
Chapter 3 Early Modern England: The Tudor-Stuart Cycle (1485–1730)
3.1 Overview of the Cycle
3.1 Overview of the Cycle
3.2 Expansion (1485–1580)
3.2 Expansion (1485–1580)
3.3 Stagflation (1580–1640)
3.3 Stagflation (1580–1640)
3.5 Depression (1660–1730)
3.5 Depression (1660–1730)
Chapter 4 Medieval France: The Capetian Cycle (1150–1450)
Chapter 4 Medieval France: The Capetian Cycle (1150–1450)
4.1 Overview of the Cycle
4.1 Overview of the Cycle
4.2 Expansion (1150–1250)
4.2 Expansion (1150–1250)
4.3 Stagflation (1250–1315)
4.3 Stagflation (1250–1315)
4.5 Depression (1365–1450)
4.5 Depression (1365–1450)
4.6 Conclusion: "A Near Perfect Multi-secular Cycle"
4.6 Conclusion: "A Near Perfect Multi-secular Cycle"
Chpater 5 Early Modern France: The Valois Cycle (1450–1660)
Chpater 5 Early Modern France: The Valois Cycle (1450–1660)
5.2 Expansion (1450–1520)
5.2 Expansion (1450–1520)
5.3 Stagflation (1520–70)
5.3 Stagflation (1520–70)
5.5 A Case Study: The Norman Nobility
5.5 A Case Study: The Norman Nobility
5.6 Depression (1600–1660)
5.6 Depression (1600–1660)
Chapter 6 Rome: The Republican Cycle (350–30 BCE)
Chapter 6 Rome: The Republican Cycle (350–30 BCE)
6.1 Overview of the Cycle
6.1 Overview of the Cycle
6.2 An Unusually Long Expansion (350–180 BCE)
6.2 An Unusually Long Expansion (350–180 BCE)
6.3 Stagflation (180–130 BCE)
6.3 Stagflation (180–130 BCE)
6.4 The Late Republican Crisis (130–30 BCE)
6.4 The Late Republican Crisis (130–30 BCE)
6.5 The End of the Disintegrative Trend
6.5 The End of the Disintegrative Trend
Chapter 7 Rome: The Principate Cycle (30 BCE–285 CE)
Chapter 7 Rome: The Principate Cycle (30 BCE–285 CE)
7.1 Overview of the Cycle
7.1 Overview of the Cycle
7.2 Expansion (27 BCE–96 CE)
7.2 Expansion (27 BCE–96 CE)
7.3 Stagflation (96–165 CE)
7.3 Stagflation (96–165 CE)
7.5 Depression (197–285 CE)
7.5 Depression (197–285 CE)
Chapter 8 Russia: The Muscovy Cycle (1460–1620)
Chapter 8 Russia: The Muscovy Cycle (1460–1620)
8.1 The Fifteenth-Century Crisis
8.1 The Fifteenth-Century Crisis
8.2 Expansion (1460–1530)
8.2 Expansion (1460–1530)
8.3 Stagflation (1530–65)
8.3 Stagflation (1530–65)
Chapter 9 Russia: The Romanov Cycle (1620–1922)
Chapter 9 Russia: The Romanov Cycle (1620–1922)
9.1 Expansion (1620–1800)
9.1 Expansion (1620–1800)
9.2 Stagflation (1800–1905)
9.2 Stagflation (1800–1905)
Chapter 10 General Conclusions
Chapter 10 General Conclusions
10.4 Sociopolitical Instability
10.4 Sociopolitical Instability
10.5 Are There General Laws of Historical Dynamics?
10.5 Are There General Laws of Historical Dynamics?
Secular Cycles
：Secular Cycles
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