Description
Why do organisms become extremely abundant one year and then seem to disappear a few years later? Why do population outbreaks in particular species happen more or less regularly in certain locations, but only irregularly (or never at all) in other locations? Complex population dynamics have fascinated biologists for decades. By bringing together mathematical models, statistical analyses, and field experiments, this book offers a comprehensive new synthesis of the theory of population oscillations.
Peter Turchin first reviews the conceptual tools that ecologists use to investigate population oscillations, introducing population modeling and the statistical analysis of time series data. He then provides an in-depth discussion of several case studies--including the larch budmoth, southern pine beetle, red grouse, voles and lemmings, snowshoe hare, and ungulates--to develop a new analysis of the mechanisms that drive population oscillations in nature. Through such work, the author argues, ecologists can develop general laws of population dynamics that will help turn ecology into a truly quantitative and predictive science.
Complex Population Dynamics integrates theoretical and empirical studies into a major new synthesis of current knowledge about population dynamics. It is also a pioneering work that sets the course for ecology's future as a predictive science.
Chapter
3.1.3 Delayed Differential Models
3.2.1 Stochastic Variation
3.2.2 Deterministic Exogenous Factors
3.3 Age- and Stage-Structured Models
3.3.1 Mathematical Frameworks
3.3.2 An Example: Flour Beetle Dynamics
3.4.1 Maternal Effect Hypothesis
3.4.2 Kin Favoritism Model
4.1 Responses of Predators to Fluctuations in Prey Density
4.1.1 Functional Response
4.1.2 Aggregative Response
4.2 Continuous-Time Models
4.2.1 Generalized Lotka-Volterra Models
4.2.2 Models Not Conforming to the LV Framework
4.2.3 Anatomy of a Predator-Prey Cycle
4.2.4 Generalist Predators
4.3 Discrete-Time Models: Parasitoids
4.3.1 Functional and Numerical Responses
4.4.1 Grazer’s Functional Response
4.4.2 Dynamics of Vegetation Regrowth
4.4.3 Dynamics of Grazer-Vegetation Interactions
4.5 Pathogens and Parasites
4.5.2 Microparasitism Models
4.5.3 Macroparasitism Models
5. Connecting Mathematical Theory to Empirical Dynamics
5.2 Qualitative Types of Deterministic Dynamics
5.2.2 Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions
5.3 Population Dynamics in the Presence of Noise
5.3.1 Simple Population Dynamics
5.3.2 Stable Periodic Oscillations
5.3.3 Chaotic Oscillations
5.3.4 Quasi-Chaotic Oscillations
5.3.5 Regular Exogenous Forcing
5.4 Population Regulation
5.4.1 Definition of Density Dependence
5.4.2 Regulation: Evolution of the Concept
5.4.3 The Stationarity Definition of Regulation
5.4.4 Beyond Stationarity: Stochastic Boundedness
6. Empirical Approaches: An Overview
6.2 Analysis of Population Fluctuations
6.2.1 The Structure of Density Dependence
6.2.2 Probes: Quantitative Measures of Time-Series Patterns
6.2.3 Phenomenological versus Mechanistic Approaches
6.3 Experimental Approaches
7. Phenomenological Time-Series Analysis
7.1.1 Variance Decomposition
7.1.2 Data Manipulations Prior to Analysis
7.2 Fitting Models to Data
7.2.2 Choosing the Base Lag
7.2.4 Model Selection by Cross-Validation
8. Fitting Mechanistic Models
8.2 Analysis of Ancillary Data
8.3 One-Step-Ahead Prediction
8.5 Fitting by Nonlinear Forecasting
9.2 Analysis of Time-Series Data
9.3 Hypotheses and Models
9.3.3 Putting It All Together: A Parasitism–Plant Quality Model
10.2 Analysis of Time-Series Data
10.3 Hypotheses and Models
10.3.1 General Review of Hypotheses
10.3.2 Interaction with Hosts
10.3.3 Interaction with Parasitoids
10.3.4 The Predation Hypothesis
10.4 An Experimental Test of the Predation Hypothesis
11.2 Hypotheses and Models
11.2.2 Parasite-Grouse Hypothesis
11.2.3 Kin Favoritism Hypothesis
11.3.1 Density Manipulation
11.3.2 Parasite Manipulation
12. Voles and Other Rodents
12.2 Analysis of Time-Series Data
12.2.1 Methodological Issues
12.2.2 Numerical Patterns
12.3 Hypotheses and Models
12.3.1 Maternal Effect Hypothesis
12.3.2 Interaction with Food
12.4 Fitting the Predation Model by NLF
12.5.1 Numerical Patterns
12.5.2 Testing Alternative Trophic Hypotheses
12.5.3 Lemming-Vegetation Dynamics at Barrow
12.6.1 Summary of Findings
12.6.2 Toward a General Trophic Theory of Rodent Dynamics
14.2 Interaction with Food
14.3 Interaction with Predators
15.1 What Mechanisms Drive Oscillations in Nature?
15.2 Structure of Density Dependence
15.4 Population Ecology: A Mature Science
Complex Population Dynamics
：A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis (MPB-35)
( Monographs in Population Biology )
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