The Ecological Detective :Confronting Models with Data (MPB-28) ( Monographs in Population Biology )

Publication subTitle :Confronting Models with Data (MPB-28)

Publication series :Monographs in Population Biology

Author: Hilborn Ray;Mangel Marc;;  

Publisher: Princeton University Press‎

Publication year: 2013

E-ISBN: 9781400847310

P-ISBN(Paperback): 9780691034966

Subject: Q141 mathematical ecology and biological model

Keyword: 普通生物学

Language: ENG

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Description

The modern ecologist usually works in both the field and laboratory, uses statistics and computers, and often works with ecological concepts that are model-based, if not model-driven. How do we make the field and laboratory coherent? How do we link models and data? How do we use statistics to help experimentation? How do we integrate modeling and statistics? How do we confront multiple hypotheses with data and assign degrees of belief to different hypotheses? How do we deal with time series (in which data are linked from one measurement to the next) or put multiple sources of data into one inferential framework? These are the kinds of questions asked and answered by The Ecological Detective.

Ray Hilborn and Marc Mangel investigate ecological data much as a detective would investigate a crime scene by trying different hypotheses until a coherent picture emerges. The book is not a set of pat statistical procedures but rather an approach. The Ecological Detective makes liberal use of computer programming for the generation of hypotheses, exploration of data, and the comparison of different models. The authors' attitude is one of exploration, both statistical and graphical. The background required is minimal, so that students with an undergraduate course in statistics and ecology can profitably add this work to their tool-kit for solving ecological problems.

Chapter

Types and Uses of Models

Nested Models

Model Complexity

3. Probability and Probability Models: Know Your Data

Descriptions of Randomness

Always Plot Your Data

Experiments, Events, and Probability

Process and Observation Uncertainties

Some Useful Probability Distributions

The Monte Carlo Method

4. Incidental Catch in Fisheries: Seabirds in the New Zealand Squid Trawl Fishery

Motivation

The Ecological Setting

"Statistically Meaningful Data"

The Data

A Negative Binomial Model of By-Catch

A Monte Carlo Approach for Estimating the Chance of Success in an Observer Program

Implications

5. The Confrontation: Sum of Squares

The Basic Method

Goodness-of-Fit Profiles

Model Selection Using Sum of Squares

6. The Evolutionary Ecology of Insect Oviposition Behavior

Motivation

The Ecological Setting

The Data

The Models

The Confrontation

Implications

7. The Confrontation: Likelihood and Maximum Likelihood

Overview

Likelihood and Maximum Likelihood

Determining the Appropriate Likelihood

Model Selection Using Likelihoods

Robustness: Don't Let Outliers Ruin Your Life

Bounding the Estimated Parameter: Confidence Intervals

The Bootstrap Method

Linear Regression, Analysis of Variance, and Maximum Likelihood

8. Conservation Biology of Wildebeest in the Serengeti

Motivation

The Ecological Setting

The Data

The Models: What Happens When Rainfall Returns to Normal (the 1978 Question)?

The Models: What Is the Intensity of Poaching (the 1992 Question)?

The Confrontation: The Effects of Rainfall

The Confrontation: The Effects of Poaching

Implications

9. The Confrontation: Bayesian Goodness of Fit

Why Bother with Bayesian Analysis?

Some Examples

More Technical Examples

Model versus Model versus Model

10. Management of Hake Fisheries in Namibia Motivation

The Impact of Environmental Change

The Ecological Setting

The Data

The Models

The Confrontation

Bayesian Analysis of the LRSG Parameters

Implications

11. The Confrontation: Understanding How the Best Fit Is Found

Introduction

Direct Search and Graphics

Newton's Method and Gradient Search

Nongradient Methods: Avoiding the Derivative

The Art of Fitting

Hints for Special Problems

Appendix: "The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses"

References

Index

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