Mathletics :How Gamblers, Managers, and Sports Enthusiasts Use Mathematics in Baseball, Basketball, and Football

Publication subTitle :How Gamblers, Managers, and Sports Enthusiasts Use Mathematics in Baseball, Basketball, and Football

Author: Winston Wayne L.  

Publisher: Princeton University Press‎

Publication year: 2012

E-ISBN: 9781400842070

P-ISBN(Paperback): 9780691154589

Subject: G80-32 sports statistics

Keyword: 体育,数理科学和化学

Language: ENG

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Description

Mathletics is a remarkably entertaining book that shows readers how to use simple mathematics to analyze a range of statistical and probability-related questions in professional baseball, basketball, and football, and in sports gambling. How does professional baseball evaluate hitters? Is a singles hitter like Wade Boggs more valuable than a power hitter like David Ortiz? Should NFL teams pass or run more often on first downs? Could professional basketball have used statistics to expose the crooked referee Tim Donaghy? Does money buy performance in professional sports?

In Mathletics, Wayne Winston describes the mathematical methods that top coaches and managers use to evaluate players and improve team performance, and gives math enthusiasts the practical tools they need to enhance their understanding and enjoyment of their favorite sports--and maybe even gain the outside edge to winning bets. Mathletics blends fun math problems with sports stories of actual games, teams, and players, along with personal anecdotes from Winston's work as a sports consultant. Winston uses easy-to-read tables and illustrations to illuminate the techniques and ideas he presents, and all the necessary math concepts--such as arithmetic, basic statistics and probability, and Monte Carlo simulations--are fully explained in the examples.

After reading Mathletics, you will understand why baseball teams should almost never bun

Chapter

5. Evaluating Baseball Pitchers and Forecasting Future Pitcher Performance

6. Baseball Decision-Making

7. Evaluating Fielders: Sabermetrics’ Last Frontier

8. Player Win Averages

9. The Value of Replacement Players: Evaluating Trades and Fair Salary

10. Park Factors

11. Streakiness in Sports

12. The Platoon Effect

13. Was Tony Perez a Great Clutch Hitter?

14. Pitch Count and Pitcher Effectiveness

15. Would Ted Williams Hit .406 Today?

16. Was Joe DiMaggio’s 56-Game Hitting Streak the Greatest Sports Record of All Time?

17. Major League Equivalents

Part II: Football

18. What Makes NFL Teams Win?

19. Who’s Better, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning?

20. Football States and Values

21. Football Decision-Making 101

22. A State and Value Analysis of the 2006 Super Bowl Champion Colts

23. If Passing Is Better Than Running, Why Don’t Teams Always Pass?

24. Should We Go for a One-Point or Two-Point Conversion?

25. To Give Up the Ball Is Better Than to Receive: The Case of College Football Overtime

26. Why Is the NFL’s Overtime System Fatally Flawed?

27. How Valuable are High Draft Picks in the NFL?

Part III: Basketball

28. Basketball Statistics 101: The Four-Factor Model

29. Linear Weights for Evaluating NBA Players

30. Adjusted+/-Player Ratings

31. NBA Lineup Analysis

32. Analyzing Team and Individual Matchups

33. NBA Players’ Salaries and the Draft

34. Are NBA Officials Prejudiced?

35. Are College Basketball Games Fixed?

36. Did Tim Donaghy Fix NBA Games?

37. End-Game Basketball Strategy

Part IV: Playing with Money, and Other Topics for Serious Sports Fans

38. Sports Gambling 101

39. Freakonomics Meets the Bookmaker

40. Rating Sports Teams

41. Which League Has Greater Parity, the NFL or the NBA?

42. The Ratings Percentage Index (RPI)

43. From Point Ratings to Probabilities

44. Optimal Money Management: The Kelly Growth Criteria

45. Ranking Great Sports Collapses

46. Can Money Buy Success?

47. Does Joey Crawford Hate the Spurs?

48. Does Fatigue Make Cowards of Us All?: The Case of NBA Back-to-Back Games and NFL Bye Weeks

49. Can the Bowl Championship Series Be Saved?

50. Comparing Players from Different Eras

51. Conclusions

Epilogue to the Paperback Edition

Index of Databases

Annotated Bibliography

Index

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