Chapter
Bad Forecasters: One-Hit Wonders, Perennial Outliers, and Copycats
What Is “Success” in Forecasting?
Who Is More Likely to Go Out on a Limb?
Success Factors: Why Some Forecasters Excel
Does Experience Make Much of a Difference in Forecasting?
Chapter 2 The Art and Science of Making and Using Forecasts
Judgment Counts More Than Math
Habits of Successful Forecasters: How to Cultivate Them
Judging and Scoring Forecasts by Statistics
Chapter 3 What Can We Learn from History?
What Does U.S. Economic History Teach about the Future?
Some Key Characteristics of Business Cycles
National versus State Business Cycles: Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats?
U.S. Monetary Policy and the Great Depression
The Ghost of the Great Depression Has Returned to Haunt Business Forecasters
The Great Inflation Is Hard to Forget
The Great Moderation: Why It's Still Relevant
Why Was There Reduced Growth Volatility during the Great Moderation?
Chapter 4 When Forecasters Get It Wrong
The Granddaddy of Forecasting Debacles: The Great Depression
The Great Recession: Grandchild of the Granddaddy
The Great Recession: Lessons Learned
The Productivity Miracle and the "New Economy''
Productivity: Lessons Learned
Y2K: The Disaster That Wasn't
The Tech Crash Was Not Okay
Forecasters at Cyclical Turning Points: How to Evaluate Them
Realizing You Are in a Recession
Forecasting Recessions: Lessons Learned
Chapter 5 Can We Believe What Washington, D.C. Tells Us?
Does the U.S. Government "Cook the Books'' on Economic Data Reports?
To What Extent Are Government Forecasts Politically Motivated?
Can You Trust the Government's Analyses of Its Policies' Benefits?
The Beltway's Multiplier Mania
Could the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Create or Save over 5 Million Jobs?
Multiplier Effects: How Real Are They?
Why Are Some Assumed Output and Jobs Multipliers Larger Than Others?
Why Government Statistics Keep "Changing Their Mind''
Chapter 6 Four Gurus of Economics: Whom to Follow?
Four Competing Schools of Economic Thought
Minskyites: Should We Keep Listening to Them?
What Distinguished Minsky’s Theories?
Why Were Minskyites Largely Ignored for So Long?
What Are Minskyites Telling Post–Great Recession Forecasters to Do Differently?
What Should Forecasters Learn from Minskyites?
Monetarists: Do They Deserve More Respect?
A Quick Review of How the Money Supply Influences the Economy
Supply-Siders: Still a Role to Play?
Some Studies on Supply-Side Economics
Keynesians: Are They Just Too Old-Fashioned?
Chapter 7 The "New Normal'': Time to Curb Your Enthusiasm?
Must Forecasters Restrain Multiyear U.S. Growth Assumptions?
Supply-Side Forecasting: Labor, Capital, and Productivity
Are Demographics Destiny?
Pivotal Productivity Projections
Technological Change to the Rescue?
Chapter 8 Animal Spirits: The Intangibles Behind Business Spending
Animal Spirits on Main Street and Wall Street
Conference Board (CB) CEO Confidence Index (Wall Street)
Business Roundtable (BR) CEO Economic Outlook Index (Wall Street)
National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index (Main Street)
Are the Business Optimism Measures Politically Biased?
What Does Business Confidence Tell Us?
Can We Base Forecasts on Confidence Indexes?
Business Confidence and Inventory Building
How Do Animal Spirits Relate to Job Creation?
If Animal Spirits Are Not Necessarily Driving Job Formation, What Else Could Be?
Confidence and Capital Spending: Do They Move in Tandem?
Do Interest Rates Play a Big Role in Capital Spending?
Are Capital Spending Plans a Useful Leading or Coincident Indicator of Investment?
Animal Spirits and Capital Spending
Chapter 9 Forecasting Fickle Consumers
Making and Spending Money
How Do Americans Make Their Money?
Will We Ever Start to Save More Money?
Why Don't Americans Save More?
More Wealth = Less Saving
Saving and the Overall Balance Sheet
Interest Rates Were a Missing Link
Do More Confident Consumers Save Less and Spend More?
A Multivariate Approach to Explaining Savings
Does Income Distribution Make a Difference for Saving and Consumer Spending?
Pent-Up Demand and Household Formation
Chapter 10 What Will It Cost to Live in the Future?
Whose Prices Are You Forecasting?
Humans Cannot Live on Just Core Goods and Services
Sound Judgment Trumps Complexity in Forecasting Inflation
Short Run Energy and Food Price Swings Are Often Caused by Supply Imbalances
Evaluating Longer-Run Food and Energy Price Forecasts Is Important
Consumption Substitution Between Core and Noncore Goods and Services Affects the Inflation Rate
Monetarists Believe That Food and Energy Prices Have Only Limited Impact on Overall Inflation
Should We Forecast Inflation by Money Supply or Phillips Curve?
Hitting Professor Phillips' Curve
A Statistical Lesson from Reviewing Phillips Curve Research
How Important Is Finding NAIRU?
Chapter 11 Interest Rates: Forecasters' Toughest Challenge
Federal Open Market Committee
What Is the Fed's "Reaction Function''?
Is the Fed "Behind the Curve''?
Can the Fed "Talk Down'' Interest Rates?
Bond Yields: How Reliable Are "Rules of Thumb''?
Rule of Thumb #1: The Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Yield on the Benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note Should Return to Its Long-Run Average Level
Rule of Thumb #2: The Yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note Should Converge to the Rate of Nominal (Current Dollar) GDP Growth
Professor Bernanke's Expectations-Oriented Explanation of Long-Term Interest Rate Determinants
Supply and Demand Models of Interest Rate Determination
Global Savings and Investment as Longer-Run Real Rate Determinants
When Will OPEC, Japan, and China Stop Buying Our Bonds?
What Will Be the Legacy of QE for Interest Rates?
What Is the Effect of Fed MBS Purchases on Mortgage Rates?
Will Projected Future Budget Deficits Raise Interest Rates?
Chapter 12 Forecasting in Troubled Times
Natural Disasters: The Economic Cons and Pros
How to Respond to a Terrorist Attack
Why Oil Price Shocks Don't Shock So Much
Market Crashes: Why Investors Don't Jump from Buildings Anymore
Contagion Effects: When China Catches Cold, Will the United States Sneeze?
Chapter 13 How to Survive and Thrive in Forecasting
Surviving: What to Do When Wrong
Thriving: Ten Keys to a Successful Career
Inside the Crystal Ball
：How to Make and Use Forecasts
Disclaimer: Any content in publications that violate the sovereignty, the constitution or regulations of the PRC is not accepted or approved by CNPIEC.
