Chapter
Solar variability and climate
Solar variability and climate
Records of the solar cycle in terrestrial archives
Records of the solar cycle in terrestrial archives
Records of the solar hydromagnetic variability
Records of the solar hydromagnetic variability
Records of the solar bolometric variability
Records of the solar bolometric variability
The 200 y variability in terrestrial archives: solar forcing?
The 200 y variability in terrestrial archives: solar forcing?
Cosmogenic isotope records
Cosmogenic isotope records
Records in the shallow-water cores of the Gallipoli terrace
Records in the shallow-water cores of the Gallipoli terrace
The cores and their dating
The cores and their dating
The total carbonate time series
The total carbonate time series
Comparison of the carbonate record with the tree ring radiocarbon record
Comparison of the carbonate record with the tree ring radiocarbon record
The thermoluminescence (TL) time series
The thermoluminescence (TL) time series
The solar-irradiance variability re~orded by thermoluminescence in shallow Ionian Sea sediments
The solar-irradiance variability re~orded by thermoluminescence in shallow Ionian Sea sediments
Spectral properties of the TL profiles
Spectral properties of the TL profiles
Solar cylces recorded in meteorites
Solar cylces recorded in meteorites
Solar modulation of GCR in the inner heliosphere
Solar modulation of GCR in the inner heliosphere
Modelling of cosmogenic nuclide production in meteorites
Modelling of cosmogenic nuclide production in meteorites
The 11 y and the century scale solar cycle in meteorites
The 11 y and the century scale solar cycle in meteorites
The century scale solar cycle
The century scale solar cycle
Radiocarbon time scale of the Mediterranean core CT85-5: the last 40 000 years
Radiocarbon time scale of the Mediterranean core CT85-5: the last 40 000 years
Dating method and radiocarbon time scale
Dating method and radiocarbon time scale
Radiocarbon dating of the deep-sea core CT85-5
Radiocarbon dating of the deep-sea core CT85-5
Long-term global change from Mediterranean Sea sediments
Long-term global change from Mediterranean Sea sediments
Comparison of carbonate profiles in Tyrrhenian and North Atlantic cores
Comparison of carbonate profiles in Tyrrhenian and North Atlantic cores
Records of solar activity in planetary objects
Records of solar activity in planetary objects
Charge particle environment in the interplanetary space
Charge particle environment in the interplanetary space
Interaction of charged particles with matter
Interaction of charged particles with matter
Rates of production of tracks and their depth profiles
Rates of production of tracks and their depth profiles
Tracks due to VVH (Z more or equal 30) nuclei
Tracks due to VVH (Z more or equal 30) nuclei
Rates of production of stable and radio nuclides
Rates of production of stable and radio nuclides
Isotope production by solar particles
Isotope production by solar particles
Production of nuclides by GCR protons
Production of nuclides by GCR protons
Application of cosmogenic effects for paleosolar activity
Application of cosmogenic effects for paleosolar activity
Paleoactivity of the Sun: Meteoritic perspective
Paleoactivity of the Sun: Meteoritic perspective
Meteorite records over decades to century
Meteorite records over decades to century
Meteorite records over 10^6-10^9 years
Meteorite records over 10^6-10^9 years
Meteorite records relating to the earliest stages of the solar system
Meteorite records relating to the earliest stages of the solar system
Meteorite records of the early activity of the Sun
Meteorite records of the early activity of the Sun
The Sun through time: The lunar and planetary perspective
The Sun through time: The lunar and planetary perspective
Lunar samples as monitors of solar processes
Lunar samples as monitors of solar processes
The diagnostic signatures of the Sun and possible interferences
The diagnostic signatures of the Sun and possible interferences
Lunar rocks as monitors of solar-flare fluxes and their variation over the past few million years
Lunar rocks as monitors of solar-flare fluxes and their variation over the past few million years
Lunar breccias and soils as monitors of solar processes and long-term secular variations in solar-wind characteristics
Lunar breccias and soils as monitors of solar processes and long-term secular variations in solar-wind characteristics
The exposure history of grains and rocks
The exposure history of grains and rocks
The characteristic signatures of the contemporary Sun
The characteristic signatures of the contemporary Sun
Measurements and possible interferences
Measurements and possible interferences
Observed long-term changes in isotopic ratios
Observed long-term changes in isotopic ratios
Evidence of solar variability from other planetary records
Evidence of solar variability from other planetary records
Advanced spectral-analysis methods
Advanced spectral-analysis methods
Classical spectral estimation
Classical spectral estimation
Maximum-entropy method (MEM)
Maximum-entropy method (MEM)
Parametric spectral estimation
Parametric spectral estimation
Some problems with MEM spectra
Some problems with MEM spectra
Singular-spectrum analysis (SSA)
Singular-spectrum analysis (SSA)
Reconstruction and power spectrum
Reconstruction and power spectrum
Windowed Fourier transform (WFT)
Windowed Fourier transform (WFT)
The wavelet transform (WT)
The wavelet transform (WT)
Dynamics of forced and coupled systems
Dynamics of forced and coupled systems
Time series analysis: A matter of motivations
Time series analysis: A matter of motivations
Phase space reconstruction
Phase space reconstruction
Self-similar random processes and surrogate data
Self-similar random processes and surrogate data
Systems with on / off intermittency
Systems with on / off intermittency
Conclusions and perspectives
Conclusions and perspectives
The maintenance of uncertainty
The maintenance of uncertainty
Linearized dynamics of infinitesimal uncertainties
Linearized dynamics of infinitesimal uncertainties
Instantaneous infinitesimal dynamics
Instantaneous infinitesimal dynamics
Finite-time evolution of infinitesimal uncertainties
Finite-time evolution of infinitesimal uncertainties
Lyapunov exponents and predictability
Lyapunov exponents and predictability
The Baker's apprentice map
The Baker's apprentice map
Infinitesimals and predictability
Infinitesimals and predictability
The Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm
The Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm
Towards a better estimate from Takens' estimators
Towards a better estimate from Takens' estimators
Space-time-separation diagrams
Space-time-separation diagrams
Intrinsic limits to the analysis of geometry
Intrinsic limits to the analysis of geometry
Prediction, prophecy, and pontification
Prediction, prophecy, and pontification
Simulations, models and physics
Simulations, models and physics
Data-based models: dynamic reconstructions
Data-based models: dynamic reconstructions
Accountable forecasts of chaotic systems
Accountable forecasts of chaotic systems
Evaluating ensemble forecasts
Evaluating ensemble forecasts
Aids for more reliable nonlinear analysis
Aids for more reliable nonlinear analysis
Significant results: surrogate data, synthetic data and self-deception
Significant results: surrogate data, synthetic data and self-deception
Surrogate data and the bootstrap
Surrogate data and the bootstrap
Surrogate predictors: Is my model any good?
Surrogate predictors: Is my model any good?
Hints for the evaluation of new techniques
Hints for the evaluation of new techniques
Avoiding simple straw men
Avoiding simple straw men
Feasibility tests for the identification of chaos
Feasibility tests for the identification of chaos
On detecting "tiny" data sets
On detecting "tiny" data sets
Building models consistent with the observations
Building models consistent with the observations
t-shadowing: Is my model any good? (reprise)
t-shadowing: Is my model any good? (reprise)
Casting infinitely long shadows (out-of-sample)
Casting infinitely long shadows (out-of-sample)
Distinguishing model error and system sensitivity
Distinguishing model error and system sensitivity
Forecast error and model sensitivity
Forecast error and model sensitivity
Deterministic or stochastic dynamics?
Deterministic or stochastic dynamics?
Using ensembles to distinguish the expectation from the expected
Using ensembles to distinguish the expectation from the expected
Numerical Weather Prediction
Numerical Weather Prediction
Probabilistic prediction with a deterministic model
Probabilistic prediction with a deterministic model
Constructing and interpreting ensembles
Constructing and interpreting ensembles
Solar variability: Simple models and proxy data
Solar variability: Simple models and proxy data
Subject and methods of qualitative analysis
Subject and methods of qualitative analysis
Bifurcation phenomena in the nonlinear dynamo model
Bifurcation phenomena in the nonlinear dynamo model
Reconstruction of grand minima of solar activity from Delta 14C data
Reconstruction of grand minima of solar activity from Delta 14C data
Historical sunspot observations and grand minima
Historical sunspot observations and grand minima
Determination of a record of grand minima from proxy data
Determination of a record of grand minima from proxy data
Appendix A - Testing the AR model
Appendix A - Testing the AR model
Phase synchronization of chaotic oscillators and analysis of bivariate data
Phase synchronization of chaotic oscillators and analysis of bivariate data
Instantaneous phase of signals and systems
Instantaneous phase of signals and systems
Phase synchronization of chaotic self-sustained oscillators
Phase synchronization of chaotic self-sustained oscillators
Looking for synchronization phenomena in real data
Looking for synchronization phenomena in real data
Search for low-dimensional chaos in observational data
Search for low-dimensional chaos in observational data
A test case: the Rossler oscillator
A test case: the Rossler oscillator
A real system: the light curve of R Scuti
A real system: the light curve of R Scuti
The evolution of the solar cycle
The evolution of the solar cycle
The reconstruction of the solar cycle back to 1609
The reconstruction of the solar cycle back to 1609
Original measurement devices
Original measurement devices
Solar-diameter measurements
Solar-diameter measurements
Original techniques and data
Original techniques and data
Comparison of historical radius with modern values
Comparison of historical radius with modern values
Period analysis of the solar-diameter data
Period analysis of the solar-diameter data
Butterfly diagram and rotation distributions
Butterfly diagram and rotation distributions
Further evidences from solar-type stars
Further evidences from solar-type stars
Alpha-omega dynamo and solar cycle
Alpha-omega dynamo and solar cycle
Catastrophes, chaos and cycles
Catastrophes, chaos and cycles
Variable solar maccularity
Variable solar maccularity
A model solar oscillation
A model solar oscillation
Physics of the solar dynamo
Physics of the solar dynamo
Origins of the Sun's magnetic field
Origins of the Sun's magnetic field
The kinematic dynamo problem
The kinematic dynamo problem
Modulation of activity cycles
Modulation of activity cycles
Solar activity and climatic change
Solar activity and climatic change
Observational correlations
Observational correlations
Mechanisms and speculations
Mechanisms and speculations
Dynamics of the solar convection zone
Dynamics of the solar convection zone
Multiple discrete scales of convection
Multiple discrete scales of convection
Probing of structure and flows with helioseismology
Probing of structure and flows with helioseismology
Multitude of magnetic structures and dynamo action
Multitude of magnetic structures and dynamo action
Structures and inverse cascades in turbulence
Structures and inverse cascades in turbulence
Dynamical range of solar turbulence
Dynamical range of solar turbulence
Local models of rotating compressible convection
Local models of rotating compressible convection
Formulation of local f-plane models
Formulation of local f-plane models
Nature of rotating turbulent convection
Nature of rotating turbulent convection
Driving of mean flows and implications for differential rotation
Driving of mean flows and implications for differential rotation
Penetrative convection and intermittency in transport of heat
Penetrative convection and intermittency in transport of heat
Global models of spherical convection
Global models of spherical convection
Formulation of anelastic convection in rotating shells
Formulation of anelastic convection in rotating shells
Nature of global convection and the mean flows
Nature of global convection and the mean flows
Recent developments in the theory of large-scale dynamos
Recent developments in the theory of large-scale dynamos
Large-scale magnetic fields in the Sun
Large-scale magnetic fields in the Sun
Traditional alpha Omega dynamos
Traditional alpha Omega dynamos
The effective alpha in accretion disc simulations
The effective alpha in accretion disc simulations
Strengths of fluctuations
Strengths of fluctuations
Quenching of alpha and eta_t
Quenching of alpha and eta_t
Forced turbulence with shear
Forced turbulence with shear
Variety of solar dynamo models
Variety of solar dynamo models
Modeling and simulation of climate and climate change
Modeling and simulation of climate and climate change
Calibration: simulation of the present-day seasonal cycle
Calibration: simulation of the present-day seasonal cycle
Simulation of 2 x CO2-induced temperature and sea-level changes
Simulation of 2 x CO2-induced temperature and sea-level changes
Radiative-convective models
Radiative-convective models
Model specification and initialization
Model specification and initialization
Simulation of the present-day temperature
Simulation of the present-day temperature
Simulation of the temperature change induced by doubling the CO2 concentration
Simulation of the temperature change induced by doubling the CO2 concentration
General circulation models
General circulation models
Formulation of atmospheric GCMs
Formulation of atmospheric GCMs
Formulation of ocean/sea-ice models
Formulation of ocean/sea-ice models
Model validation: simulation of the present climate
Model validation: simulation of the present climate
Simulation of 2 x CO2-induced climate change
Simulation of 2 x CO2-induced climate change
Appendix A - Description of the UIUC 11-layer atmospheric general circulation/mixed-layer-ocean model
Appendix A - Description of the UIUC 11-layer atmospheric general circulation/mixed-layer-ocean model
Atmospheric general circulation model
Atmospheric general circulation model
Predicted quantities and numerical solution methods
Predicted quantities and numerical solution methods
Parameterizations-Treatment of unresolved-scale physical processes
Parameterizations-Treatment of unresolved-scale physical processes
Surface and planetary boundary layer
Surface and planetary boundary layer
Subgrid-scale transports, convection, large-scale condensation, precipitation and clouds
Subgrid-scale transports, convection, large-scale condensation, precipitation and clouds
Atmospheric variability: modelling, diagnostics, and forecasting
Atmospheric variability: modelling, diagnostics, and forecasting
The atmosphere: a component of the climate system
The atmosphere: a component of the climate system
Modelling: conceptual and comprehensive
Modelling: conceptual and comprehensive
Stochastic analysis (and the two-time-scale approach)
Stochastic analysis (and the two-time-scale approach)
A new general circulation model
A new general circulation model
Numerics, physics, and climatology
Numerics, physics, and climatology
Diagnostics: stormtracks and Grosswetter
Diagnostics: stormtracks and Grosswetter
A toy weather model: linear quasi-geostrophic flow
A toy weather model: linear quasi-geostrophic flow
The textbook linear 2-layer model
The textbook linear 2-layer model
Midlatitude cyclone tracks: a Lagrangian view
Midlatitude cyclone tracks: a Lagrangian view
Time series analysis: degrees of freedom and dimension
Time series analysis: degrees of freedom and dimension
Linear analysis: degrees of freedom
Linear analysis: degrees of freedom
Non-linear analysis: dimension
Non-linear analysis: dimension
Forecasting: persistence, hurricanes, and rain
Forecasting: persistence, hurricanes, and rain
A toy predictability model: persistence in red noise
A toy predictability model: persistence in red noise
Chance, climate, and persistence
Chance, climate, and persistence
Tropical-cyclone tracks: linear and non-linear forecasts
Tropical-cyclone tracks: linear and non-linear forecasts
Linear combination of forecasts
Linear combination of forecasts
Probability of precipitation (PoP)
Probability of precipitation (PoP)
Past and Present Variability of the Solar-Terrestrial System
( International School of Physics “Enrico Fermi” )
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