Cover

Half-title

Title

Copyright

Contents

Contributors

Figures

Tables

Abbreviations

Preface

1 Introduction: food crises and the WTO

The end of poverty versus the end of low prices of food

Structural and cyclical factors

Small farm viability in a globalised economy

Lack of Green Revolutions

Climate change and food security

Market trends and biofuels

International trade and food security

The end of the Doha ‘Development’ Round?

Looking forward

References

Part I: Economics of the food crisis

2 The food price crisis, poverty and agricultural trade policy

Introduction

Impacts of food price changes on poverty in poor countries

Why might results differ between studies?

Country coverage

Commodity coverage

Methodology

Crisis and intersectoral linkages

Long-term impacts of food price rises on poverty

Should agricultural trade policy be reconsidered?

What should policies be?

What policy changes have occurred?

Long-term policy changes

Policy changes and the recent crisis

The potential role of the WTO

Summary

References

3 Globalisation of agriculture and food crises: then and now

1. Introduction

2. Size of the shocks

Agricultural prices (nominal)

Commodity prices (nominal)

Commodity prices (real)

Preliminary summing up

3. A broader view of commodity price cycles and trends

The run-up to the price events of the 1970s

The aftermath of the increases in commodity prices and inflation of the 1970s

Towards the price spike of the 2000s

The aftermath of the 2007–2008 price event: cyclical considerations

The aftermath of the 2007–2008 price event: possible trends

4. Final reflections

References

4 Solving the food crisis in Africa: achieving an African Green Revolution

Introduction

The role of agriculture in Africa’s economic growth and development

Africa faces a deepening food crisis

How did Asia deal with its food crisis in the 1960s and 1970s?

Technologies exist that can end the food crisis in Africa

Obstacles to achieving a Green Revolution in Africa

Negative effects of structural adjustment in Africa

Poorly developed markets and low prices for agricultural products

Underinvestment in infrastructure

Political will for rural economic transformation

Geopolitics of food

Declining support for public sector agricultural research

What kinds of policies are needed to achieve a Green Revolution in Africa?

Invest in raising agricultural productivity of staple food crops and expand value addition

Avoid competition for land between biofuel and food production

Develop rural input markets

Adopt bold public policies to support poor farmers

Provide equitable access to land and security of land tenure for farmers

Invest in the next generation of farmers

Finance global public goods in agriculture

Concentrate investments in Africa’s breadbasket areas

Develop and scale up innovative financing to leverage commercial banks to support agriculture

Expand agricultural development assistance to Africa

Establish a ‘Global Fund for a Green Revolution in Africa’

Develop crop insurance to reduce impacts of climate change on African agriculture

Conclusions

References

5 Rising food prices: causes, consequences and policy responses

What are the causes?

Key cyclical factors

Key structural factors

What are the medium-term prospects?

What if the assumptions are changed?

What are the impacts on developing countries?

Appropriate trade policy responses

Policy responses of developing countries

Agricultural policy reforms in OECD countries

A reconsideration of biofuel support policies

What are the key messages?

References

6 Shift and swing factors and the special role of weather and climate

1. Introduction

2. Swing and shift factors of price changes in global agriculture

Short-term swing factors

Supply-side factors

Demand-side shocks

Long-term shift factors

Shifters of demand trends

Shifters of supply trends

3. Long-term perspectives of climate change impacts

Climate change scenarios

How will climate change affect the four dimensions of food security?

Dimension 1: food availability

Dimension 2: food stability

Dimension 3: utilisation

Dimension 4: access to food

Quantifying the impact of climate change on food security

4. Conclusion

References

Part 2 Trade and law: WTO and beyond

7 Agricultural policies: past, present and prospective under Doha

Worsening disarray until the 1980s, but then some reforms

Key indicators of distortions to agricultural incentives

Summary of estimates of distortions since the 1950s

Effects of past reforms and of remaining policies: results of economy-wide modelling

Prospects for agricultural reform under Doha

References

8 The food crisis and the role of the EC’s Common Agricultural Policy

Introduction

Agriculture in the EU

Agricultural production in the EU

Cereals

Meat

Sugar

Agricultural imports into, and exports from, the EU

Overview of EU imports

Imports from developing countries

Overview of EU exports

EU market access

Export programmes

The original CAP system for the management of markets

A brief history of the CAP to the present day

CAP objectives

CAP mechanisms

CAP reform

Domestic price support

Direct payments

Supply control

Border measures

Additional aspects of 2003 reform

Market management mechanisms other than subsidies

Import licences

Import duties

Import quota management

Export prohibitions and restrictions

Export refunds

Special safeguards

Responses to the food crisis

Conclusions

References

9 WTO disciplines and economic dimensions of the 2008 US Farm Bill

Introduction

US farm policy under the Uruguay Round

The 2008 FCE Act

Overview

Ethanol

New revenue guarantees

Other farm support programmes

Nutrition and food aid

Possible further WTO disciplines

Future prospects

References

10 Impact of the food crisis on developing countries and implications for agricultural trade policy

Introduction

Economic effects

Trade patterns

Terms of trade

Short-term versus medium-term effects

Policy challenges

The promise of commodity agreements

The importance of diversification

The effect of past trade liberalisation

Directions in ongoing trade negotiations

Import restrictions on agricultural goods

Export restrictions on agricultural goods

Conclusions

References

11 Responses by the international trade and aid community to food security

Introduction

Factors behind the recent food price rise

Immediate policy response mechanisms

The efficacy of food aid

The ‘Marrakesh Decision’

Trade policy measures to ameliorate short-erm threats to food security

Existing mechanisms – IMF, World Bank and UN support

Time for an ex ante mechanism to respond to short-term threats of food security?

Food stocks

Cash support

Medium-to long-term response mechanisms

Background and rationale for Aid for Trade

Evidence of aid practices

Taking international trade theory seriously

Aid for Trade and adjustment

Preferences and Aid for Trade

Fiscal and macroeconomic impact

Trade reform and facilitating agricultural trade in developing countries

Policy conclusions

References

12 Food security and WTO rules

1. Introduction

2. Agricultural and trade policies at national level

Agricultural and trade policies in rich countries

Impact on food-importing developing countries

3. The Uruguay Round provisions and food security

Market access

Domestic support

Export competition

The Marrakesh Ministerial Decision on measures concerning the possible negative effects of the reform programme on least-developed and net food-importing developing countries (NFIDCs)

4. Would the Doha Round results, as currently envisaged, improve or diminish food security?

Market access

Domestic support

Export competition

Export subsidies

Export credits

Food Aid

Supply management?

General assessment

Export prohibitions and restrictions and differential export taxes

5. Summing up: policy recommendations

References

13 Conclusions and policy recommendations

1. Different price hike impacts on poverty call for differentiated solutions

2. Invest in small farms throughout the developing world

3. Invest in ‘greener’ and ‘rainbow’ revolutions in low-income countries

4. Invest in new-eneration technologies designed to address local variations

5. Develop new institutional approaches, including public–private partnerships, to enhance research, development and extension services

6. Develop new institutional approaches addressing food insecurity in the context of new political and economic challenges

7. Provide food aid as a short-term response

8. Carefully negotiate the new forms of foreign direct investment in agriculture

9. Reconsider biofuels support policies

10. Take into account environmental challenges, prioritise climate change adaptation

11. Deepen international markets in agricultural commodities

12. Reform the WTO rules in agriculture relevant to food security

13. Provide more market access to stimulate production in competitive developing countries

14. Reduce developed country domestic support

15. Eliminate export competition instruments

16. Progressively prohibit export restrictions in line with bound tariff reductions

17. Replace anti-agricultural biases with aid for trade

18. New international commodity agreements?

19. Conclude the Doha Round – wisely

20. Invest in global public goods

The way forward

References

Index