Description
Risk Analysis, Second Edition
Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway
A practical guide to the varied challenges presented in the ever-growing field of risk analysis.
Risk Analysis presents an accessible and concise guide to performing risk analysis, in a wide variety of field, with minimal prior knowledge required. Forming an ideal companion volume to Aven's previous Wiley text Foundations of Risk Analysis, it provides clear recommendations and guidance in the planning, execution anduse of risk analysis.
This new edition presents recent developments related to risk conceptualization, focusing on related issues on risk assessment and their application. New examples are also featured to clarify the reader's understanding in the application of risk analysis and the risk analysis process.
Key features:
- Fully updated to include recent developments related to risk conceptualization
and related issues on risk assessments and their applications.
- Emphasizes the decision making context of risk analysis rather than
just computing probabilities
- Demonstrates how to carry out predictive risk analysis using a variety of case studies and examples.
- Written by an experienced expert in the field, in a style suitable for both
i
Chapter
1.3 Examples: decision situations
1.3.1 Risk analysis for a tunnel
1.3.2 Risk analysis for an offshore installation
1.3.3 Risk analysis related to a cash depot
2.1 The risk concept and its description
2.3 How to describe risk quantitatively
2.3.1 Description of risk in a financial context
2.3.2 Description of risk in a safety context
2.4 Qualitative judgements
Chapter 3 The risk analysis process: planning
3.2 Selection of analysis method
3.2.1 Checklist-based approach
3.2.2 Risk-based approach
Chapter 4 The risk analysis process: risk assessment
4.1 Identification of initiating events
4.4 Probabilities and uncertainties
4.5 Risk picture: risk presentation
4.5.1 Handling the background knowledge
Chapter 5 The risk analysis process: risk treatment
5.1 Comparisons of alternatives
5.1.1 How to assess measures?
5.2 Management review and judgement
Chapter 6 Risk analysis methods
6.3 Failure modes and effects analysis
6.3.1 Strengths and weaknesses of an FMEA
6.4 Hazard and operability studies
6.6.1 Qualitative analysis
6.6.2 Quantitative analysis
6.7.1 Barrier block diagrams
6.9 Monte Carlo simulation
Chapter 7 Safety measures for a road tunnel
7.1.2 Selection of analysis method
7.2.1 Identification of initiating events
7.2.3 Consequence analysis
7.3.1 Comparison of alternatives
7.3.2 Management review and decision
Chapter 8 Risk analysis process for an offshore installation
8.1.2 Selection of analysis method
8.2.1 Hazard identification
8.2.3 Consequence analysis
8.3 Risk picture and comparison of alternatives
8.4 Management review and judgement
Chapter 9 Production assurance
9.2.1 Identification of failures
9.2.3 Consequence analysis
9.3 Risk picture and comparison of alternatives
9.4 Management review and judgement. Decision
Chapter 10 Risk analysis process for a cash depot
10.1.1 Problem definition
10.1.2 Selection of analysis method
10.2.1 Identification of hazards and threats
10.2.3 Consequence analysis
10.4 Risk-reducing measures
10.4.1 Relocation of the NOKAS facility
10.4.2 Erection of a wall
10.5 Management review and judgement. Decision
Chapter 11 Risk analysis process for municipalities
11.1.1 Problem definition
11.1.2 Selection of analysis method
11.2.1 Hazard and threat identification
11.2.2 Cause and consequence analysis. Risk picture
Chapter 12 Risk analysis process for the entire enterprise
12.1.1 Problem definition
12.1.2 Selection of analysis method
12.2.3 Health, environment and safety (HES)
12.3 Overall risk picture
13.1 Risk analysis as a decision support tool
13.2 Risk is more than the calculated probabilities and expected values
13.3 Risk analysis has both strengths and weaknesses
13.3.1 Precision of a risk analysis: uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
13.3.3 Risk acceptance criteria (tolerability limits)
13.4 Reflection on approaches, methods and results
13.5 Limitations of the causal chain approach
13.8 The implications of the limitations of risk assessment
13.9 Critical systems and activities
13.10 On the difference between risk as seen from the perspectives of the analysts and management
Appendix A Probability calculus and statistics
A.1 The meaning of a probability
A.3 Probability distributions: expected value
A.3.1 Binomial distribution
A.4 Statistics (Bayesian statistics)
Appendix B Introduction to reliability analysis
B.1 Reliability of systems composed of components
Appendix C Approach for selecting risk analysis methods
C.1 Expected consequences
C.4 Selection of a specific method
D.1 Risk management: Relationships between key terms
Risk Analysis
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