The Second Leg Down :Strategies for Profiting after a Market Sell-Off ( The Wiley Finance Series )

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Description

Cut risk and generate profit even after the market drops

The Second Leg Down offers practical approaches to profiting after a market event. Written by a specialist in global macro, volatility and hedging overlay strategies, this book provides in-depth insight into surviving in a volatile environment. Historical back tests and scenario diagrams illustrate a variety of strategies for offsetting portfolio risks with after-the-fact options hedging, and the discussion explores how a mixture of trend following and contrarian futures strategies can be beneficial. Without a rational analysis-based approach, investors often find themselves having to cut risk and buy protection just as options are at their most over-priced. This book provides practical strategies, expert analysis and the knowledge base to assist you in recovering your portfolio.

Hedging strategies are often presented as expensive and unnecessary, especially during a bull market. When equity indices and other unstable assets drop, they find themselves stuck – hedging is now at its most expensive, but it is imperative to hedge or face liquidation. This book shows you how to salvage the situation, with strategies backed by expert analysis.

  • Identify the right hedges during high volatility
  • Generate attractive risk-adjusted returns
  • Learn new strategies for offsetting risk
  • Know your options for when losses have already occurred

Imagine this scenario: you've incurred significant losses, you're approaching risk limits, you must cut risk immediately, yet slashing positions would damage the portfolio – what do you do? The Second Leg Down is your emergency hotline, with practical strategies for dire conditions.

Chapter

The Bull Cycle

The Renegades

Claws of the Bear

Zugzwang

The Sceptics

A Sad Truth

Common Mistakes

Imprecise but Effective

Hedging Against Implausible Scenarios

A Black Swan in Correlation

Taking Profits

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

The Great Escape

Having a Plan

Trend Following as a Defensive Strategy

Taking the Offensive

The Pre-Conditions for Market Crises

Banks: The Great Multiplier

A Change in Risk Regime

Endnotes

Chapter 2: "Safe" Havens and the Second Leg Down

The Matterhorn

Mrs. Watanabe’s No. 1 Investment Club

The Risk of What Others are Holding

The Risk of What Others Are Likely to Do

Here We Go Again

Summary

Endnotes

Chapter 3: An Overview of Options Strategies

The Building Blocks: Calls and Puts

Why Buy a Call or Put?

The Black–Scholes Equation and Implied Volatility

The Implied Volatility Skew

Hedging Small Moves

Delta hedging: The Idealised Case

Practical Limits of Delta Hedging

Hedging Options with Other Options

Put and Call Spreads

Straddles and Strangles

The Deformable Sheet

Skew Dynamics for Risky Assets

The 1×2 Ratio Spread and Its Relatives

The Batman Trade

Implied Correlation and the Equity Index Skew

From Ratios to Butterflies

Calendar Spreads

Put/Call Parity Argument

Summary

Chapter 4: Hedging the Wings

Taking the Other Side of the 1×2

Comparing the 25 and 10 Delta Puts

Hedging Sovereign Bond Risk

Selling Put Ratio Spreads on the S&P 500

The Hypothetical Implied Distribution

Our Findings So Far

Back-Tests: A Cautionary Note

A Short Digression: Delta-Neutral or Comfortably Balanced?

The 665 Put

Implications of the Square Root Strategy

Futures vs Spot

A Dramatic Example

A Cross-Sectional Study

The "New" VIX: Model-Independent, Though Not Particularly Intuitive

The Spot VIX: Oasis or Mirage?

Migrating to VIX Options

Reflections on Figure 4.36

Migrating to Different Markets: The V2X

Risk-Regime Analysis

Conditional Performance of Hedging Strategies

Summary

Chapter 5: The Long and the Short of It

Short‐Dated Options

The Physicists Weigh In

Buying Time

Long‐Dated Options

Far from the Madding Crowd

R Minus D

The Lumberjack Plot

Vega Grows in T − t

Selective Application of the Weekly Options Strategy

Summary

Chapter 6: Trend Following as a Portfolio Protection Strategy

What is Trend Following?

Trend Following Dogma

The Crisis Alpha Debate

An Aside: Diversifying Across Time

Taking Advantage of a Correction

The Niederhoffer Argument

Chasing 1-Day Moves

Pushing the Analogy Too Far

Analysing the Data Directly

LEGO Trend Following

Summary

Notes

Chapter 7: Strategies for Taking Advantage of a Market Drop

The Elastic Band

Trading Reversals

More Texas-Style Hedging

Selling Index Put Spreads

Breathing Some Life into the Equity Risk Premium

Buying VIX Puts

Selling VIX Upside

The Remarkable Second Moment

Summary

Chapter 8: "Flash Crashes", Crises and the Limits of Prediction

Lord of the Fireflies

Cascading Sales

A Concrete Example

An Aside

Paths, Prints

The Role of the Central Bank

Credit Cycles at the Zero Bound

The Monetary Policy Palette

Reading the Tea Leaves

Summary and Conclusion

Glossary

References

Index

EULA

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