Economic Forecasting ：An Introduction

Publication subTitle ：An Introduction

Author： Ken Holden; David A. Peel; John L. Thompson  

Publisher： Cambridge University Press‎

Publication year： 1991

E-ISBN: 9781139240192

P-ISBN(Paperback): 9780521356923

Subject： F201 经济预测

Keyword： 经济预测economic prediction

Language： ENG

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Economic Forecasting

Description

This book provides an introduction to the methods employed in forecasting the future state of the economy. It provides a comprehensive coverage of methods and applications in this fast-growing area and is intended for use in postgraduate and upper-level undergraduate courses. Part I outlines the available techniques, particularly those used in business forecasting and econometric forecasting. The state of the art in time series modelling is reviewed and includes a discussion of Box-Jenkins models, the vector autogressive approach and cointegration. Ways of combining forecasts are also examined in detail. Part II considers the most important applications of forecasting. Applications in microeconomics include demand and sales forecasting, the use of anticipations data, leading indicators and scenario analysis. In macroeconomics the emphasis is on why errors occur in forecasting asset market prices, including implications of the efficient markets hypothesis for foreign markets, stock market prices and commodity market prices. The book ends with a discussion of the appropriateness of various techniques, recent developments in forecasting, and the links between economic forecasting and government policy.

Chapter

Cover

Title

Copyright

Contents

List of figures

List of tables

Preface

PART 1 Techniques

CHAPTER 1 Introduction to forecasting methods

1.1 Why forecasts are needed

1.2 Methods of forecasting

1.3 A review of business forecasting techniques

1.4 Econometric forecasting

1.5 Evaluating forecasts

1.6 Conclusions

CHAPTER 2 Time-series methods

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Stochastic models of time series

2.3 Box-Jenkins modelling

2.4 A worked example

2.5 Vector autoregression models

2.6 Cointegration

2.7 Deterministic and stochastic trends

2.8 Non-linear time series

CHAPTER 3 Combining forecasts

3.1 Introduction

3.2 The variance-covariance method

3.3 The regression method

3.4 Serial correlation problems

3.5 Other methods of combination

3.6 Practical suggestions for combining forecasts

3.7 The Makridakis forecasting competition

PART 2 Applications

CHAPTER 4 Microeconomic forecasting

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Demand forecasting

4.3 Sales and market share forecasting for companies

4.4 Anticipations data and leading indicators

4.5 Scenario analysis

4.6 Other techniques

CHAPTER 5 Forecasting with macroeconomic models

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Nature of macroeconomic models

5.3 A simple macroeconomic model

5.4 Preparing the forecast

5.5 Judgemental adjustments and forecast errors

5.6 Forecasting the 1980-1982 recession

5.7 Decomposition of macroeconomic forecasts

5.8 Accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts

5.9 Conclusions

CHAPTER 6 Forecasting asset market prices

6.1 Introduction

6.2 The efficient markets hypothesis

6.3 Foreign exchange markets

6.4 Stock market prices

6.5 Commodity prices

6.6 Conclusions

CHAPTER 7 Conclusions

7.1 The choice between different techniques

7.2 Current developments

7.3 Economic forecasting and government policy

References

Author index

Subject index

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