Chapter
3 RATIONALITY AS PROCESS AND AS PRODUCT OF THOUGHT
RATIONALITY IN AND OUT OF ECONOMICS
Rationality in the other social sciences: functional analysis
Functional analysis in economics
ON APPLYING THE PRINCIPLE OF RATIONALITY
Toward qualitative analysis
MIND AS THE SCARCE RESOURCE
Rational search procedures
Attention as the scarce resource
4 NORMATIVE THEORIES OF DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK AND UNDER UNCERTAINTY
2. THE THEORY OF VON NEUMANN AND MORGENSTERN
3. PROBLEMS IN THE FOUNDATIONS
6. SUBJECTIVE EXPECTED UTILITY
7. MORE PROBLEMS IN THE FOUNDATIONS
MONOTONICITY AND STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE
DECREASING MARGINAL VALUE AND CUMULATIVE ADVANTAGE
COMPLETE COMPARABILITY AND UTILITY
6 BEHAVIORAL DECISION THEORY: PROCESSES OF JUDGMENT AND CHOICE
ARE OPTIMAL DECISIONS REASONABLE?
Task vs. optimal model of task
Environment vs. problem space
Intuitive responses and optimal models
STRATEGIES AND MECHANISMS OF JUDGMENT AND CHOICE
The role of acquisition in evaluation
8 RESPONSE MODE, FRAMING, AND INFORMATION-PROCESSING EFFECTS IN RISK ASSESSMENT
CONCRETENESS AND THE FRAMING OF ACTS
PROTECTIVE ACTION AND THE FRAMING OF CONTINGENCIES
INSURANCE DECISIONS AND THE FRAMING OF OUTCOMES
RESPONSE MODE, FRAMING, AND INFORMATION PROCESSING
IMPLICATIONS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT
Informing people about risk
9 RATIONAL CHOICE AND THE FRAMING OF DECISIONS
A HIERARCHY OF NORMATIVE RULES
FRAMING AND EVALUATION OF OUTCOMES
THE FRAMING AND WEIGHTING OF CHANCE EVENTS
Certainty and pseudocertainty
Descriptive and normative considerations
1.1 Savage's normative interpretation
1.2 The existence and construction of preferences
2.3 The representation theorem
3. THE CONSTRUCTIVE NATURE OF PREFERENCE
3.1 Indecision and indifference
3.2 Where should we put our effort?
3.4 Constant and other imaginary acts
3.5 The empirical evidence
4. THE CONSTRUCTIVE NATURE OF SMALL WORLDS
4.1 Can value be purged of belief?
4.2 Can belief be discovered from preference?
4.3 The independence postulate
4.3.1 The counterexamples
4.3.2 Is the postulate absolutely convincing?
4.3.3 The sure thing principle
4.3.4 The mixing argument
4.3.5 The imaginary protocol
4.3.6 Goals and commodities
5. THE PROBLEM OF SMALL WORLDS
5.1 Are all utilities really expected utilities?
5.2 Refining small worlds
5.3 Savage's problem of small worlds
III BELIEFS AND JUDGMENTS ABOUT UNCERTAINTIES
11 LANGUAGES AND DESIGNS FOR PROBABILITY JUDGEMENT
1.2 The hominids of East Turkana
2. TWO PROBABILITY LANGUAGES
2.1 The Bayesian language
2.2 The language of belief functions
Semantics for belief functions
(i) A sometimes reliable truth machine
(ii) A two-stage truth machine
Syntax for belief functions
3.1 Total-evidence designs
Two total-evidence designs for the free-style race
Total-evidence designs based on frequency semantics
Likelihood-based conditioning designs
A likelihood-based observational design: the search for Scorpion
The choice of new evidence
A partitioning design that is not likelihood-based
3.3 Other Bayesian designs
4. BELIEF-FUNCTION DESIGN
4.2 The hominids of East Turkana
5. THE NATURE OF PROBABILITY JUDGMENT
12 UPDATING SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
1 .2 Bibliographical note on probability revision
2. JEFFREY'S RULE OF CONDITIONING
2.1 Bayesian conditioning
2.2 Jeffrey conditionalization and sufficiency
4. COMBINING SEVERAL BODIES OF EVIDENCE
5.1 Minimum distance properties
5.2 I projections and the IPFP
5.3 Comparing different metrics
6. ABSTRACT PROBABILITY KINEMATICS
13 PROBABILITY, EVIDENCE, AND JUDGMENT
THE CONSTRUCTIVE/PRESCRIPTIVE ATTITUDE
WHO IS THE MODELER/ANALYST/DECISION MAKER?
HARD AND SOFT PROBABILITIES
THE EFFECTIVES OF UNUSUAL EVENTS
H. RUBIN {Purdue University)
T. SEIDENFELD (Washington University, St. Louis)
REFERENCES IN THE DISCUSSION
14 THE EFFECTS OF STATISTICAL TRAINING ON THINKING ABOUT EVERYDAY PROBLEMS
Problem types and problem structure
Examples training condition
Overview of data analysis
Effect of training on frequency of statistical reasoning
Effect of training on quality of statistical reasoning
The effect of problem type on the use of statistical principles
Relationship between training and problem type
Relationships between training domain and test domain
Probabilistic - structure 1
Probabilistic - structure 2
Probabilistic - structure 3
Probabilistic — structure 4
Probabilistic - structure 5
Probabilistic - structure 6
15 THE MIND AS A CONSUMING ORGAN
16 DISAPPOINTMENT IN DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY
1. A SIMPLE MODEL OF DISAPPOINTMENT
An example: reacting to the odds
4. SENSITIVITY TO METHOD OF UNCERTAINTY RESOLUTION
5. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
17 MARGINAL VALUE AND INTRINSIC RISK AVERSION
1. VALUE FUNCTIONS, STRENGTH-OF-PREFERENCE FUNCTIONS, AND UTILITY FUNCTIONS
2. INTERPRETING STRENGTH OF PREFERENCE
2.1 Preferences for increments: a gambling interpretation
2.2 Preferences for increments: a conjoint interpretation
3. FROM STRENGTH OF PREFERENCE TO UTILITY
3.1 Strength of preference: using the derivative concept
3.2 Strength of preference: using the primitive concept
4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
18 KNOWING WHAT YOU WANT: MEASURING LABILE VALUES
WHEN AND HOW PEOPLE MIGHT NOT KNOW WHAT THEY WANT
What options and consequences are relevant?
How should options and consequences be labeled?
How should values be measured?
CONTROLLING THE RESPONDENT'S PERSPECTIVE
Altering the salience of perspectives
Altering the importance of perspectives
Choosing the time of inquiry
CHANGING CONFIDENCE IN EXPRESSED VALUES
Misattributing the source
Changing the apparent degree of coherence
Destroying existing perspectives
IMPLICATIONS FOR RESPONDENTS
IMPLICATIONS FOR ELICITORS
19 SOURCES OF BIAS IN ASSESSMENT PROCEDURES FOR UTILITY FUNCTIONS
TRANSFER VS. ASSUMPTION OF RISK
20 SIMPLICITY IN DECISION ANALYSIS: AN EXAMPLE AND A DISCUSSION
PRIORITIZING RESEARCH PROJECTS FOR THE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING RESEARCH LABORATORY
Judging location measures
FOUR THEMES FOR SIMPLIFICATION
Keeping the analyst's eye on the ball
Using strengths of preferences
Exploiting flatness of decision-theoretical maxima
OTHER FORMS OF SIMPLICITY: BEHN AND VAUPEL
21 VALUE-FOCUSED THINKING AND THE STUDY OF VALUES
1. IDENTIFYING DECISION OPPORTUNITIES
2. ELEMENTS OF SYSTEMATIZED THINKING ABOUT VALUES
Single-attribute utility functions
Multiattribute utility functions
3. INTERRELATED HIERARCHIES OF OBJECTIVES
Making the assessee comfortable
Providing insight quickly
Assessing the utility function
Identifying value dependencies
Involving the decision makers
State-of-the-knowledge utility assessments
5. CREATING ALTERNATIVES USING VALUES
Focusing thinking on particularly desirable alternatives
Clarifying individual preferences for group action
Advantages of value-focused thinking for creating alternatives
6. A DISCIPLINE TO STUDY VALUES
Procedures for systematically identifying values
Group and societal value structures
Conflict identification and consensus building
Fundamental objectives for a firm or organization
Communication and education about values
22 BEHAVIOR UNDER UNCERTAINTY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY
THE EXPECTED UTILITY HYPOTHESIS
MISCALCULATION OF PROBABILITIES
23 THE RELEVANCE OF QUASI RATIONALITY IN COMPETITIVE MARKETS
RATIONALITY, QUASI RATIONALITY, AND FRAMING
MARKETS WITH QUASI-RATIONAL AGENTS
Markets for characteristics
Comparison with results in finance
24 HOW SENIOR MANAGERS THINK
WHAT SENIOR MANAGERS THINK ABOUT
HOW SENIOR MANAGERS THINK
Making a network of problems
Perceiving and understanding novelty
WHAT TO DO ABOUT THINKING
Program rationality into the organization
Manage time by managing problems
25 PROBLEMS IN PRODUCING USABLE KNOWLEDGE FOR IMPLEMENTING LIBERATING ALTERNATIVES
LIBERATING ALTERNATIVES AND DOUBLE-LOOP LEARNING
RESPONDENTS DIAGNOSE Y's ACTIONS AS INEFFECTIVE
PARTICIPANTS' RESPONSES ARE ALSO COUNTERPRODUCTIVE
REASONING PROCESSES THAT PRODUCE COUNTERPRODUCTIVITY
AN EXPLANATION OF THE X-Y RESULTS
FACTORS THAT INHIBIT ORGANIZATIONAL DOUBLE-LOOP LEARNING
IMPLICATIONS FOR RESEARCH METHODOLOGY OF PRODUCING LIBERATING ALTERNATIVES
EMPIRICAL RESEARCH FEATURES PRODUCING KNOWLEDGE ABOUT DOUBLE-LOOP ISSUES
DISCONFIRMABILITY OF PROPOSITIONS
26 ON THE FRAMING OF MEDICAL DECISIONS
Format M (for mortality):
Format MS (for mortality and survival):
STUDY 2 : GENETIC COUNSELING
Format AN (for abnormal and normal):
Format C/A (conditional/abnormal):
27 WHETHER OR NOT TO ADMINISTER AMPHOTERICIN TO AN IMMUNOSUPPRESSED PATIENT WITH HEMATOLOGIC MALIGNANCY AND UNDIAGNOSED FEVER
SUMMARY OF AVAILABLE DATA
Incidence of fungal infection
Complications of amphotericin therapy
Structure of the analysis
Probabilities and utilities
Calculation of expected utilities
28 THE EFFECT OF PRIVATE ATTITUDES ON PUBLIC POLICY: PRENATAL SCREENING FOR NEURAL TUBE DEFECTS AS A PROTOTYPE
29 DISCUSSION AGENDA FOR THE SESSION ON MEDICAL DECISION MAKING and MINUTES OF A GROUP DISCUSSION ON CLINICAL DECISION MAKING
DISCUSSION OUTLINE: DESCRIPTIVE/PRESCRIPTIVE/NORMATIVE INTERACTIONS IN MEDICAL DECISION MAKING
A. Issues relating to values and preferences
B. Issues relating to beliefs and probabilities
C. Issues relating to conceptions of choice
EXTRACTS FROM PLENARY DISCUSSION FOLLOWING MEDICAL PAPERS
Decision Making
：Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Interactions
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