Chapter
3 The view from growth econometrics
3.1 Regression models of growth
3.2 Interpreting regression evidence
3.3 A shifting platform: geography and human resources
3.4 Governance and growth
3.4.3 The institutional environment
3.5 From growth econometrics to case analysis
4 Opportunities and choices: learning from the country evidence
5.2 Overcoming locational disadvantages
5.3 Building human resources
2 Opportunities and choices
2.1 A basic classification of opportunities
2.1.3 Endowments and location in growth regressions
2.2 Differential growth performance and its decomposition
3.2 Redistributive syndromes
3.3 Intertemporal syndromes
3.5 Syndromes and opportunities
4 Consequences of the syndromes for growth
4.1 Possible effects of the syndromes on opportunities
4.2 How important were the syndromes?
4.3 Syndromes and the foreclosing of opportunities
4.3.1 Coastal, resource-scarce economies
4.3.2 Resource-rich economies
4.3.3 Landlocked, resource-scarce economies
5 A preliminary conclusion
5.1 Understanding the past
3 Anti-growth syndromes in Africa: a synthesis
of the case studies
1 Introduction: the anti-growth syndromes
2 Illustrative examples of the syndromes
2.1.1 Burkina Faso: 1960–1982 (soft control); 1983–1990 (hard control)
2.1.2 Cameroon: 1960–1977 (soft control)
2.1.3 Chad: 1960–2000 (soft control)
2.1.4 Ghana: 1960–1966, 1972–1983 (hard control)
2.1.5 Sierra Leone: 1975–1989 (hard control)
2.1.6 Tanzania: 1970–1985 (hard control); 1986–1994 (soft controls)
2.2 Adverse redistribution
2.2.2 Sierra Leone: 1969–1990
2.3 Intertemporally unsustainable spending
2.3.2 Cameroon: 1982–1993
2.4.2 Chad: 1979–1984, 1985–1993
2.4.3 Sierra Leone: 1967–1968, 1991–2000
2.5.1 Botswana: 1960–2000
2.5.2 Burkina Faso: 1991–2000
2.5.3 Ghana: 1968–1972, 1984–2000
2.5.4 Sierra Leone: 1961–1966
2.5.5 Tanzania: 1961–1967, 1995–2000
3.1.1 Reigning international paradigms
3.1.2 Experience of the initial leaders
3.1.3 Group-identity rivalry
3.1.4 Initial institutions
3.1.5 The role of government and time preference
3.2.1 Negative supply shocks
3.2.2 Positive supply shocks
3.4 The role of institutions/political system
3.5 Economically driven political expediency
4 Domestic interests and control regimes
2 Pricesinthe macroeconomy
3 Interventions by sector
3.1 The industrial sector
3.2 The agricultural sector
6 Temporal and political correlates
6.1.2 Embattled reformers
7 The politics of economics
7.2 Regional redistribution
5 Sacrificing the future: intertemporal strategies
and their implications for growth
2 Unsustainable public spending
2.1 Evidence on spending booms
3.1 Looting the private sector in autocracies
3.2 Looting the private sector in democracies
3.3 Looting the public sector in autocracies
3.4 Looting the public sector in democracies
4 Conclusion and implications
6 The political geography of redistribution
2 Ethnicity and the polarization of wealth
4 Triangular redistribution and political control
7 Political conflict and state failure
2 Patterns of state breakdown
5.2 The logic of political order
5.4 Political order as an equilibrium
7 Insearch of causal paths
8 Shocks, risk, and African growth
1 Introduction: Hamlet without the prince?
2 Growth and risk: the basics
3 How does risk affect growth? Plausible channels
4 Does it matter? Empirical estimates
9 The evolution of global development paradigms
and their influence on African economic growth
1 Introduction: growth syndromes and ideas
2 The evolution of global development paradigms
2.1 Phase 1: 1960s–mid-1980s – the dominance of control regimes
2.2 Phase 2: 1980s – a sharp turn away from the strong role of the state
2.3 Phase 3: 1990s onwards – the paradigm of balance and
one-world consensus
3 From global ideas to African syndromes: channels of
transmission
3.1 Development paradigms, leaders, and growth syndromes: Fabianism
and African control regimes
3.2 An emerging African consensus on societal values?
3.2.1 The World Values Survey
3.2.2 The Afrobarometer survey
3.3 Influence of global development ideas through aid
conditionality and selectivity
3.3.1 CPIA and African growth syndromes
Appendix 1: Growth syndromes and types of leadership in Africa, 1970–2000
Appendix 2: Syndromes and political regimes
Appendix 3: Ordered logit model
2 Explaining political reform
2.1 The international path
4 The impact of political reform
4.1 Political accountability
4.5 The impact of accountability
4.5.1 The government’s ideal
4.5.2 Participation constraint
4.5.3 Feasibility constraint
4.7.1 Independent variables
4.7.4 Properties of the selectorate
4.7.5 Economic structures
4.8.2 The Nature of the economy
4.9 Political business cycle
4.10.2 Voter sophistication
11 Endogenizing syndromes
2 Building blocks of political geography
2.1.1 Stage 1: constitutional democracy in conditions of ethnic identity
2.1.2 Stage 2: single-party systems
2.1.3 Stage 3: rule by fear
2.1.4 Stage 4: restored democracy
2.1.5 Concentration, composition, and duration: a summary of their
implications for growth
2.2.1 Landlocked, resource-scarce countries
2.2.2 Resource-rich countries
2.2.3 Coastal, resource-scarce countries
2.3 Influences on knowledge
2.3.1 In-country knowledge
2.3.2 Learning from the region
2.3.3 Learning from the world
3 Predicting the syndromes
3.1 Determinants of syndrome-free status
3.2.2 Unsustainable spending and anticipated redistribution
3.2.5 The statistical evidence
12 Harnessing growth opportunities:
how Africa can advance
2 Harnessing opportunities in landlocked Africa
2.1 Strategies for growth in landlocked Africa
2.1.1 Strategy 1: increase neighborhood growth spillovers
2.1.2 Strategy 2: improve neighbors’ economic policies
2.1.3 Strategy 3: improve coastal access
2.1.4 Strategy 4: become a haven for the region
2.1.5 Strategy 5: don’t be air-locked or E-locked
2.1.6 Strategy 6: encourage remittances
2.1.7 Strategy 7: design the budget so as to encourage big aid inflows on
a long-term basis
2.1.8 Strategy 8: create a transparent and investor-friendly
environment for resource prospecting
2.1.9 Strategy 9: rural development
2.2 The political foundations for growth in landlocked Africa
2.2.1 Political requirement 1: internalize neighborhood externalities
2.2.2 Political requirement 2: internalize international externalities
2.2.3 Political requirement 3: rebalancing interest groups
3 Harnessing opportunities in resource-rich Africa
3 Harnessing opportunities in resource-rich Africa
3.1.1 Strategy 1: governments should transform the resource rents
efficiently into public goods and private capital formation
3.2 The political foundations for growth in resource-rich Africa
3.2.1 Political requirement 1: protecting the commons of the future
3.2.2 Political requirement 2: checks and balances
3.2.3 Political requirement 3: an informed electorate
3.2.4 Political requirement 4: protecting the technocrats
4 Harnessing opportunities in coastal, resource-scarce Africa
4.1 Strategies for growth in coastal, resource-scarce Africa
4.1.1 Strategy 1: emulate the Asian model
4.2 The political foundations for growth in coastal,
resource-scarce Africa
4.2.1 Political requirement 1: protecting exporters from predation
4.2.2 Political requirement 2: an infrastructure big push
4.2.3 Political requirement 3: temporary protection from Asia
The Political Economy of Economic Growth in Africa, 1960–2000: Volume 1
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