Chapter
Effect of the vertical gradient of diabatic heating
Effect of the horizontal gradient of diabatic heating
2.3.4 Adiabatic vorticity development due to slantwise vorticity development
2.4 Discussion and conclusions
3 Probabilistic extreme event attribution
3.2.1 Weather versus climate
3.2.2 Risk versus probability
3.2.3 Metrics of attributable risk
Fraction of attributable risk (FAR)
Fraction of attributable increase and decrease in risk (FAIR and FADR)
3.2.4 Atmosphere-only modelling approaches
Targeted probabilistic extreme event attribution
Systematic probabilistic extreme event attribution
3.2.5 Coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling approaches
3.3 Examples: seasonal-mean extremes
3.4.2 Computational constraints
4 Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes
4.2 Statistical characterization of extremes
4.2.1 Extreme value analysis
4.2.2 Estimation of trends
4.2.3 Detection and attribution
4.3.2 Understanding the causes
4.4 Precipitation extremes
4.4.2 Understanding the causes
4.5 Summary and discussion
Part II High-impact weather in mid latitudes
5 Rossby wave breaking: climatology, interaction with low-frequency climate variability, and links to extreme weather events
5.2 Rossby wave breaking: definition and upper-level signature
5.3 Climatological occurrence of RWB and link to patterns of low-frequency variability
5.3.1 Climatological occurrence of RWB
5.3.2 RWB and patterns of low-frequency variability
5.4 RWB and surface weather
5.5 Link to high-impact weather events
6 The influence of jet stream regime on extreme weather events
6.2 Dynamical regimes of the large-scale circulation
6.3.1 Diagnostics of extreme events
6.3.2 The idealized models
6.4 The relation between jet stream type and the distribution and evolution of extreme weather events
6.4.1 Observed extreme upper level cyclonic vorticity events
6.4.2 Extreme events in the idealized models
6.4.3 The distribution of observed extreme temperature anomalies
7 Forecasting high-impact weather using ensemble prediction systems
7.2 Quantifying uncertainty
7.2.1 An ideal ensemble prediction system
7.2.2 Initial condition uncertainty
7.2.3 Uncertainty due to model error
7.3 Practical ensemble prediction systems
7.3.2 Convective-scale EPS
7.4 Probabilistic forecast verification
7.4.1 Proper scoring rules
7.4.2 Proper score decomposition
7.5 Calibration and postprocessing
7.5.1 Postprocessing for extremes
7.6 Communicating uncertainty
8 Storm tracks, blocking, and climate change: a review
8.2 Climate models and a historical perspective
8.3 Mechanisms causing storm track change
8.4 Storm track projections
9 The North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations: climate variability, extremes, and stratosphere-troposphere interaction
9.1 What is the North Atlantic Oscillation and how is it related to the Arctic Oscillation?
9.2 The NAO as a governor of extreme weather
9.3 Degeneracy in the response to different drivers
9.4 Chaotic ‘noise’ or predictable signal?
Part III Tropical cyclones
10 Opportunities and challenges in dynamical and predictability studies of tropical cyclone events
10.2 Extended-range predictions of western North Pacific tropical cyclone events
10.3 Extended-range predictions of Atlantic tropical cyclone events
10.4 Seasonal prediction of Atlantic tropical cyclone events
10.5 Seasonal forecasts for western North Pacific tropical cyclone events
11 Predictability of severe weather and tropical cyclones at the mesoscales
11.2 Mesoscale predictability of mid-latitude winter snowstorms and moist baroclinic waves
11.3 Mesoscale predictability of warm season severe weather events
11.4 Mesoscale predictability of tropical cyclones
12 Dynamics, predictability, and high-impact weather associated with the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones
12.2.1 Extratropical transition
12.2.2 Impacts on the mid-latitude circulation
12.2.3 Downstream development
12.4 Recurving TC Oscar and extreme weather downstream over North America
12.4.1 Overview and life cycle
12.4.2 Tropical cyclone-extratropical flow interaction
12.4.3. Downstream flow reconfiguration
12.4.4 Possible role of low-frequency tropical forcing
12.4.5 Predictability associated with TY Oscar
12.5 Summary and future directions
13 Secondary eyewall formation in tropical cyclones
13.2 Environmental conditions
13.3 Internal mechanisms of SEF
13.3.1 Vortex Rossby waves
13.3.2 Axisymmetrization process
13.3.3 Beta-skirt axisymmetrization formation hypothesis
13.3.4 Unbalanced boundary layer dynamics near the top of the TC boundary layer
13.3.5 Balanced response to diabatic heating in a region of enhanced inertial stability
14 Seasonal forecasting of floods and tropical cyclones
14.2 Seasonal forecasting
14.3 POAMA and the Beijing floods of 21 July 2012
14.4 May 2010 POAMA forecast
14.5 Tropical cyclones during the 2010/2011 rainy season
14.8 Summary and conclusion
Part IV Heat waves and cold-air outbreaks
15 European heat waves: the effect of soil moisture, vegetation, and land use
15.2 Climatology of European heat waves
15.5 Soil moisture - climate feedback
15.7 Vegetation and land-use change effects
16 Western North American extreme heat, associated large-scale synoptic-dynamics, and performance by a climate model
16.2 California heat waves: upper air large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) synoptics and dynamics
16.3 LSMPs as a predictor of surface extreme heat
16.4 How well are LSMPs captured by a climate model?
17 Decadal to interdecadal variations of northern China heat wave frequency: impact of the Tibetan Plateau snow cover
17.2 Data, model, and methodology
17.3 The China HWF and TPSC
17.5 Conclusion and discussion
18 Global warming targets and heat wave risk
18.4 Plausibility of the upper estimates
18.5 Role of soil drying on range of regional warming
19 Cold-air outbreaks over East Asia associated with blocking highs: mechanisms and their interaction with the polar stratosphere
19.2 Upstream influence on winter monsoon variability
19.3 Monsoon variability associated with the Western Pacific teleconnection pattern
19.4 Long-term modulation of the Siberian high and East Asian winter monsoon
19.5 Summary and discussion
20 Response of the Atlantic Ocean Circulation to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations
20.1 Introduction and motivation
20.2 Sensitivity of the MOC to fresh water perturbations
20.3 Biases in Global Climate Models
20.4 Effects of subgrid-scale processes
20.4.2 Relation between AMOC and meridional density contrast
20.4.3 The AMOC and the Atlantic freshwater balance
20.5 Discussion and perspective
21 Key role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in twentieth century drought and wet periods over the US Great Plains and the Sahel
21.3 Notable hydroclimate episodes of the twentieth century
21.4 The enabling SST analysis
21.4.3 AMO-Atl´s seasonal precipitation footprints
21.5 Drought-period SST and precipitation reconstruction
21.5.1 SST reconstruction
21.5.2 Drought reconstruction
21.5.3 Drought reconstruction: synopsis
21.6 Great Plains drought origin and predictability
21.6.1 Modal contributions
21.6.2 Drought predictability
22 Floods and droughts along the Guinea Coast in connection with the South Atlantic Dipole
22.2 Gross features of annual precipitation on the Guinea Coast
22.3 Floods and droughts on the Guinea Coast
22.4 Discussion: influence of the SAOD on regional precipitation
22.5 Summary and prospects
23 The effect of global dynamical factors on the interannual variability of land-based rainfall
23.2 The dynamical factors
23.3 Regression analysis of seasonal rainfall
23.4 Results and discussion
24 MJO and extreme weather/climate events
25 Extreme weather and seasonal events during the Indian summer monsoon and prospects of improvement in their prediction skill under India´s Monsoon Mission
25.2 Phenomenological studies on the South Asian Monsoon
25.2.1 Phenomenological studies in the Early Phase - 1875-1950
25.2.2 Phenomenological studies in the Recent Phase - 1950-2010
25.3 Large-scale features of tropospheric circulation and rainfall during the South Asian Summer Monsoon
25.3.1 Tropospheric circulation
25.3.3 Heavy rainfall events over India on the daily scale
25.4 Transition from spring to monsoon season over South Asia and onset and advance of the SAM
25.5 Monsoon variability on synoptic, intra-seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal scales
25.5.1 Synoptic and meso-scale precipitating system
25.5.2 Active-break cycle of monsoon, low-frequency intra-seasonal variability, and northward propagating convective episodes and their links with the MJO
25.5.3 Inter-annual monsoon variability
25.5.4 Decadal monsoon variability and trends in monsoon rainfall
25.6 Monsoon and ocean - atmospheric processes on regional and global tropical scales, regional cryosphere and monsoon, and monsoon and aerosol connections
25.6.1 Local oceanic processes and monsoon
25.6.2 Remote SST forcing, ENSO and monsoon, and IOD and monsoon
25.6.3 Himalayan Eurasian cryosphere and monsoon
25.6.4 Monsoon and aerosols
25.7 Monsoon predictability and operational dynamical prediction on different scales
25.7.1 Monsoon predictability
25.7.2 Operational dynamical monsoon prediction on the short to medium-range scale
25.8 Prospects for improved prediction skill under the Monsoon Mission
25.9 Summary and concluding remarks
26 Interannual variability and predictability of summer climate over the Northwest Pacific and East Asia
26.2 Tropical Indo-NW Pacific variability
26.3 Tropical predictability
26.4 East Asian predictability
26.4.1 The Silk Road pattern along the Asian jet
26.4.2 The PFJ wave train pattern
27 Impacts of annular modes on extreme climate events over the East Asian monsoon region
27.2 Data and methodology
27.3 Cross-seasonal relationship between the preceding winter NAM and spring dust storms in NWC
27.4 Influence of the preceding winter NAM on the spring extreme low temperature events in NEC
27.5 Winter NAM and East Asian snowstorms
27.6 Impact of winter NAO on winter precipitation in SWC
27.7 Cross-seasonal influence of the preceding boreal winter SAM on spring precipitation over South China
Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events
( Special Publications of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics )
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