Description
This study investigates the three main waves of political regime contention in Europe and Latin America. Surprisingly, protest against authoritarian rule spread across countries more quickly in the nineteenth century, yet achieved greater success in bringing democracy in the twentieth. To explain these divergent trends, the book draws on cognitive-psychological insights about the inferential heuristics that people commonly apply; these shortcuts shape learning from foreign precedents such as an autocrat's overthrow elsewhere. But these shortcuts had different force, depending on the political-organizational context. In the inchoate societies of the nineteenth century, common people were easily swayed by these heuristics: jumping to the conclusion that they could replicate such a foreign precedent in their own countries, they precipitously challenged powerful rulers, yet often at inopportune moments - and with low success. By the twentieth century, however, political organizations had formed. As organizational ties loosened the bounds of rationality, contentious waves came to spread less rapidly, but with greater success.
Chapter
Political Regime Contention
Organization of the Volume
2 A New Theory of Political Diffusion: Cognitive Heuristics and Organizational Development
The Insufficiency of Extant Approaches
Network Approaches: Shrinking Distance among Countries
The Rise of Nationalism: Greater Distance between Countries
World System Theory and Constructivism: The Power of External Impulses
Rational Learning: Autonomous Initiative of Domestic Emulators
A New Explanation: Cognitive Heuristics Amid Organizational Developments
Bounded Rationality: Interaction of External Impulses and Domestic Emulators
Organizational Developments and Their Impact on the Bounds of Rationality
The Transformation of Diffusion’s Triggers
The Diversification of Diffusion
The Increase in Organizational Density and the Inward Shift of Political Attention
The Complex Interweaving of Factors
3 Organizational Development and Changing Modes of Democratic Contention
The Prevalence of Revolutionary Efforts in the Nineteenth Century
The Predominance of Revolutionary Uprisings in the Absence of Mass Organization
The Slow Emergence of Parliamentary Reformism
The Rise of Political Mass Organizations and Alternatives to Revolution
The Rise of Mass Parties and of Reformist Strategies
The Lingering Attraction of Revolution
Debates and Conflicts over Contentious Strategies
The Predominance of Negotiation and Compromise in the Third Wave
The Spread of Organization and the Rise of the Negotiation Strategy
The Predominance of the Spanish Model of Pacted Transition
The Continuing Appeal of Transgressive Contention
4 The Tsunami of 1848: Precipitous Diffusion in Inchoate Societies
Assessing Arguments Derived from Extant Approaches
The Crucial Role of Cognitive Heuristics
The Predominance of Cognitive Heuristics in the Absence of Organizational Leadership
Cognitive Heuristics and the Failure of Political Regime Diffusion
The Historical Significance of the Failed Revolutions of 1848
5 The Delayed Wave of 1917–1919: Organizational Leaders as Guides of Targeted Contention
The Nature and Characteristics of Democratic Diffusion in 1917–1919
Cognitive Heuristics at the Mass Level
Representative Leadership: Wider Bounds of Rationality
The Impact of Inferential Shortcuts on Representative Leaders
6 The Slow but Potent “Third Wave” in South America: The Prevalence of Negotiated Transitions
The Primary Model: Spain’s Negotiated Transition
The Limited Repercussions of the Portuguese Revolution in Latin America
Spain’s Pacted Transition as the Predominant Model
Secondary Diffusion in South America: Additional Sources of Inspiration
The Uneven Strength of Secondary Diffusion
Reasons for the Differential Impact of Intra-Regional Precedents
Vertical Pressures from Powerful Developed Countries
The Processing of Diverse Impulses by Representative Leaders
The Limited Impact of External Stimuli in South America’s Third Wave
7 Crosscurrents of the Third Wave: Interorganizational Competition and Negotiation in Chile
The Organizational Basis of Diverse Emulation Efforts in Chile
The Beginning of Chile’s Transition and the Example of Mass Mobilization in Argentina
The Nicaraguan Model and the Failure of Mass Protests in 1983–1984
Return to a Negotiation Strategy à la Spain
The Failure of Insurrectionary Violence and Its Double-Edged Impact
The Philippine Model and the Opposition’s Institutional Strategy – And Success
The Transition Negotiations of 1989
8 Theoretical Conclusions and Comparative Perspectives
Regional Variation in the Third Wave of Democratization
Democratization in Africa
The Collapse of Communism
Contentious Waves in Democratization History, 1830–2011
The “Color Revolutions” in the Postcommunist World
Broader Theoretical Implications
Making Waves
：Democratic Contention in Europe and Latin America since the Revolutions of 1848
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