Description
Population and Climate Change provides the first systematic in-depth treatment of links between two major themes of the twenty-first century: population growth and associated demographic trends such as aging, and climate change. It is written by a multidisciplinary team of authors from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, who integrate both natural science and social science perspectives in a way that is readable by members of both communities. The book will be of primary interest to researchers in the fields of climate change, demography, and economics. It will also be useful to policy-makers and NGOs dealing with issues of population dynamics and climate change, and to teachers and students on courses such as environmental studies, demography, climatology, economics, earth systems science, and international relations.
Chapter
1.1.3 Other factors influencing climate change
1. 2 Evidence of Climate Change
1. 3 Contributions to Greenhouse Gas Emissions
1. 4 Projecting Future Climate Change
1.4.1 Projections of global mean temperature and sea level rise: The IPCC scenarios
1.4.2 Projected changes in other climate-related factors
1.4.3 Extreme weather events
1. 5 Impacts on Society and Ecosystems
1.5.3 Sea level rise and coastal systems
1.5.4 Natural catastrophes
1. 6 GlobalWarming: A Historical Sketch
1.6.1 The road ahead: Stabilizing GHG concentrations?
2. 1 Demographic Trends: A Global Summary
2. 2 Fertility Decline in Less Developed Countries
2.2.1 Demographic transition
2.2.2 Fertility decline: Determinants and preconditions
2. 3 Population Projections
2.3.1 Population momentum
2.3.2 Cumulation of errors and long-term projections
2. 4 The IIASA 1996 Population Projections: Methodology and Assumptions
2.4.2 Assumptions on future fertility
2.4.3 Assumptions on future mortality
2.4.4 Assumptions on future international migration
2. 5 The IIASA 1996 Population Projections: Results
2.5.1 Alternative scenarios
2.5.2 Probabilistic projections
2. 6 Impact of Global Climate Change on the Population Outlook
Population, Economic Development, and Environment
3. 1 Population and Economic Development
3.1.2 A neoclassical economic growth model
3.1.3 Population growth in the basic model: A closer look
3. 2 Population and Environment
3.2.1 A neoclassical model of population, economic development, and environment
3.2.2 Population growth in the basic model including the environment
3.2.3 Ecological economics
3. 3 Vicious-Circle Models
3. 4 Economic Impacts of Population Aging
4 Population and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
4.2 Demographic Impact Identities
4. 3 Population Sensitivity Analyses
4.3.2 Choice of demographic unit
4.3.3 Relationships between variables
4.3.4 Population in climate change assessment models
5 Population and Adaptation: Agriculture, Health, and Environmental Security
5. 1 Food and Agriculture
5.1.2 Impact of climate change
5.1.3 Population and agriculture
5.2.2 Impact of climate change
5.2.3 Population and health
5. 3 Environmental Security
5.3.2 Impact of climate change
5.3.3 Population and environmental security
6 Population and Climate Change: Policy Implications
6. 1 The Basis for Climate Policy
6.1.1 No-regrets strategies
6.1.2 Expected costs of climate change
6.1.3 Risk aversion and the precautionary principle
6. 2 The Basis for Population Policies
6.2.1 The geopolitical rationale
6.2.2 The macroeconomic rationale
6.2.3 The welfare–economic rationale: Externalities to childbearing
6.2.4 The ecological rationale: Scale and ecological concerns
6.2.5 The individual welfare rationale
6. 3 Climate Change and Population Policies
6.3.1 Population policy as a no-regrets strategy
6.3.2 Population policy and the expected costs of climate change: The “greenhouse externality” to childbearing
6.3.3 Population policy and the precautionary principle
6.3.4 Population policy and equity
Appendix I: Fertility and Mortality Assumptions for IIASA Population Projections
Appendix II: Household-level Economies of Scale in Energy Consumption
Appendix III: Population in Major Climate Change Assessment Models
III.1 Projection/Scenario Models
III.2 Optimization/Endogenous-Policy Models
Population and Climate Change
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