Taking Stock of Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Europe

Author: Nazim Belhocine   Ernesto Crivelli   Ms.Nan Geng   Mr.Johannes Wiegand  

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND‎

Publication year: 2016

E-ISBN: 9781475557923

Subject: F0 Economics;F019.6 theory of economic policy;F7 Trade Economy

Language: ENG

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Taking Stock of Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Europe

Chapter

EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES IN CESEE: EVOLUTION, PERFORMANCE, RATIONALE

A Short History of Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes in CESEE

How Have Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes Performed?

Monetary Stability

Alignment of Monetary Conditions

The Boom-Bust Recovery-Cycle of 2003–15: A Monetary Interpretation

Alternative Explanations

Implications beyond Macroeconomic Volatility

Nonmonetary Objectives

Summary

Obstacles to Exchange Rate Flexibility

Financial Euroization and Fear of Floating

Why Are Financial Systems Euroized?

Summary

MONETARY STRATEGIES FOR CESEE ECONOMIES

Sticking to Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes: The “Baltic Path”

Overview

The Baltic Path

Options to Enhance Macroeconomic Performance under Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes

Moving to Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes: What Does It Take?

Overview

Establishing a Credible Domestic Monetary Anchor

Regulatory and Structural Policies

CONCLUSIONS

REFERENCES

FIGURES

1. Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes

2. Exchange Rate Flexibility in CESEE

3. Effective Exchange Rate Flexibility and Hyperinflation during Transition

4. Consumer Price Inflation, 1996–2016

5. Macroeconomic Volatility and Exchange Rate Regime, 2003–14

6. Monetary Conditions, 2003–14

7. Monetary Conditions and Economic Activity, 2003–14

8. Alternative Explanations

9. Implications beyond Macroeconomic Volatility

10. Nonmonetary Objectives

11: Financial Euroization

12. Determinants of Deposit Euroization

13. The Baltics vs. Other Countries with Fixed Exchange Rates

BOXES

1. Transition from Socialism and Emerging Europe’s Legacy of Hyperinflation

2. The Calvo-Reinhart "Fear of Floating" Index

3. Albania’s Monetary Framework

4. The Minimum Portfolio Variance Approach

5. The Baltic Path to Euro Adoption

6. De-dollarization of Bank Deposits: Successful Cases

7. Serbia’s Dinarization Strategy

8. Central Bank Survey on De-euroization Policies

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