Cover

Contents

Overview

Chapter 1. Introduction

Chapter 2. How to Measure the Degree of Fiscal Procyclicality

Chapter 3. To What Extent Has the Fiscal Policy Been Procyclical among Sub-Saharan African Countries?

The Business Cycle in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Fiscal Policy Stance

Fiscal Policy Procyclicality

Chapter 4. What Explains the Degree of Fiscal Policy Procyclicality among Sub-Saharan African Countries?

Chapter 5. Country Case Studies

Nigeria

Botswana

Chile

Chapter 6. Conclusion

Appendix I. Data Sources and Definition of Variables

Appendix II. Endogeneity Concern: Do Output Shocks Drive Fiscal Policy, or Do Fiscal Policy Shocks Cause Output Shocks?

References

Figures

Figure 1. GDP Growth Rates by Country Groups, 2000–14

Figure 2. Output Gaps by Country Groups, 2000–14

Figure 3a. Oil Exporters: Fiscal Impulses and Nonresource Output Gaps, 2005–08

Figure 3b. Oil Exporters: Fiscal Impulses and Nonresource Output Gaps, 2009

Figure 3c. Oil Exporters: Fiscal Impulses and Nonresource Output Gaps, 2010–14

Figure 4. Nigeria: Fiscal Stance

Tables

Table 1. Expansionary Fiscal Stance by Period and Country Group

Table 2. Median Contribution of Public Investment to the Fiscal Stance

Table 3a. Sensitivity of Cyclically Adjusted (Nonresource) Primary Balance to (Nonresource) Output Gap

Table 3b. Sensitivity of (Nonresource) Primary Balance to (Nonresource) Growth

Table 4a. Sensitivity of Cyclically Adjusted (Nonresource) Primary Balance to (Nonresource) Output Gap with Interaction Terms

Table 4b. Sensitivity of (Nonresource) Primary Balance to (Nonresource) Growth with Interaction Terms

Table 5. Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy for Oil Exporters in Sub-Saharan Africa

Table 6. Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy for Mineral Exporters in Sub-Saharan Africa

Table 7. Cross-country GMM to Identify Determinants of Degree of Procyclicality (Dependent Variable: Degree of Fiscal Cyclicality Measured As The Sensitivity of Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance to Output Gap)

Table 8. Cross-country GMM to Identify Determinants of Degree of Procyclicality (Dependent Variable: Degree of Fiscal Cyclicality Measured As the Sensitivity of Primary Balance to Real GDP Growth)

Table A1. Panel GMM Estimates

Table A2. Pairwise Panel Causality Tests