Cover

Half-title

Title page

Copyright information

Dedication

Table of contents

Table of figures

Table of tables

Acknowledgments

Preface

1 Origins and evolution of the vice presidential home state advantage

Historical perspective

The early republic

Post-Reconstruction

Post-World War II

The modern era

What changed?

Is the perception of a vice presidential home state advantage really dead?

An enduring perception

Notes

2 The home state advantage is dead … long live the home state advantage!

Media coverage

Content analysis: Data and methodology

Content analysis: Results

Content analysis: Discussion

Presidential campaigns

Campaign advisers

Presidential candidates

Conclusion

Notes

3 When perception becomes campaign reality

Vice presidential selection

Data and methodology

Empirical results

Discussion

Campaign strategy

Case study: John Edwards, 2004

Case study: Sarah Palin, 2008

Case study: Joe Biden, 2008

Case study: Paul Ryan, 2012

Empirical analysis: Campaign visits to Wisconsin, 2012

Empirical analysis: Campaign advertisements in Wisconsin, 2012

Conclusion

Notes

4 An empirical analysis of the vice presidential home state advantage (state-level data)

The friends and neighbors hypothesis

Empirical evidence

Applicability to presidential elections

Measuring the HSA

Descriptive measures

The Lewis-Beck and Rice equation

Empirical results

Causes of the vice presidential home state advantage

Interactive effect: Population x experience

Data and methodology

Empirical results

Discussion

An alternative approach: Fixed effects regression

Data and methodology

Empirical results

Conclusion

Notes

5 An empirical analysis of the vice presidential home state advantage (individual-level data)

Data and methodology

Respondent sample

Survey measures

Independent variables

Dependent variables

Empirical analysis

Vote choice models

Alternative HSA models

Candidate evaluation models

Discussion

Conclusion

Notes

6 Did LBJ really “deliver” Texas … and the South?

“We couldn’t have won the South without Johnson”

Vice presidential selection

Vice presidential advantage

“Lyndon Benedict Johnson”

Ambition

“Betrayal”

Empirical analysis: ANES, 1960

Data and methodology

Empirical results

Empirical analysis: Kennedy-Johnson campaign polling

Texas

Louisiana

Conclusion

Notes

7 Has the vice presidential home state advantage ever decided an election?

A historical analysis of potentially decisive vice presidential HSAs

Historical introduction

Historical examples

Discussion

A counterfactual analysis of potentially decisive vice presidential HSAs

Qualifying elections

Jeanne Shaheen, 2000

Discussion

Conclusion

Notes

8 Who votes for the running mate, anyway?

Literature review

Context

Evidence

Empirical analysis

Vote choice models

Candidate evaluation models

Conclusion

Notes

9 The VP advantage

Notes

Appendix A: Documentation of media “veepstakes” coverage

Appendix B: Fixed effects model of Democratic vote share with interaction terms, 1884–2012

References

Index