Chapter
1.1 Rationale—Needs to Bridge the Knowledge Gaps
1.3 Approach and Structure
2 Storylines and Pathways for Adaptation in Europe
2.2 RCPs and SSPs: A Brief Review
2.2.1 What Are the RCPs and SSPs?
2.2.2 The Storylines Describe Different Worlds and Dynamic Change
2.2.3 Using Scenarios and Storylines at Different Levels
2.3 European Regional Diversity
2.3.2 Climate Projections and Their Consequences in Selected Sectors
2.3.2.1 Regional climate change
2.3.2.3 Water and flood risk management
2.3.2.5 Urban development
2.3.3 Synthesis of Future Socioeconomic Storylines and Vulnerabilities
2.4 The Unfolding of Adaptation Pathways at Different Levels
2.4.1 A Multidimensional View of Adaptation Pathways
2.4.2 Incremental or Transformational Adaptation Pathways
2.4.3 Policies, Adaptation Pathways, and Storylines
3 The Diversity of Adaptation in a Multilevel Governance Setting
3.2 The Diversity of Climate Change Impacts at the Local (Case) Level
3.2.1 Methodological Approach: Case Study Research
3.2.2 Climate Change Impacts for European Case Studies: Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches
3.2.2.1 Top-down analysis: future projections at the case study level
3.2.2.1.2 The Copenhagen case
3.2.2.1.3 The Prague case
3.2.2.2 Bottom-up analysis: local risk and vulnerability assessments in European case studies
3.2.2.2.1 Alentejo (agriculture and forests; Southern-Mediterranean Europe)
3.2.2.2.2 Dartmoor (biodiversity and ecosystem services; Northern-Western Europe)
3.2.2.2.3 Madrid (health; Southern-Mediterranean Europe)
3.2.2.2.4 Kalajoki (water resources, Northern-Arctic region)
3.2.2.2.5 Prague (cities and infrastructure, Central-Eastern Europe)
3.2.2.2.6 Timmendorfer Strand (costal zones, Central-Eastern Europe)
3.2.3 Impacts From a Sectoral and Territorial Zone Perspective
3.2.4 The Critical Role of Local Adaptive Capacity
3.3 Local and Sectoral Climate Change Adaptation in Europe
3.3.1 State of the Art of Local Climate Change Adaptation in Europe and Elsewhere
3.3.2 Local and Sectoral Adaptation Processes in European Case Studies
3.3.2.1 Overview of case studies
3.3.2.2 Methods, models, and tools applied in European case studies
3.3.2.3 The use and applicability of tools in case studies
3.4 The Role of Participatory Processes in Climate Change Adaptation
3.4.1 Participation as a Sociopolitical Process to Shape Policies and Trajectories
3.4.1.1 Analytical framework: the participation matrix
3.4.1.2 The limitations of the participation matrix
3.4.1.3 Participatory experiences from case studies in Europe
3.4.2 Participation as a Scientific Approach in Climate Change Adaptation Planning
3.4.3 Challenges, Success Factors, and Pitfalls in Participation
3.5 How to Find the Best Adaptation Option: Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Options—A Guideline and Demons...
3.5.1 Stepwise Evaluation Approach and Its Application in the Case Studies
3.5.1.1 Step 1: Preliminary risk assessment
3.5.1.2 Step 2: Identification of adaptation options
3.5.1.3 Step 3: Selection of the evaluation method and the evaluation criteria
3.5.1.4 Step 4: Data collection
3.5.1.5 Step 5: Evaluation and prioritization
3.5.2 Conclusions: Key Messages on Identifying Adaptation Options
3.6 Barriers, Opportunities, and Good Practices in Implementation—Exemplified by Six Case Studies on Agricultural/Rural Cli...
3.6.1 Barriers and Opportunities for Climate Adaptation
3.6.2 Findings on General Barriers and Opportunities From 23 Case Studies
3.6.3 Barriers and Opportunities for Agricultural/Rural Climate Adaptation—Six Case Studies
3.6.3.1 Holstebro, Denmark
3.6.3.3 Ústí, the Czech Republic
3.6.3.5 Dartmoor National Park, United Kingdom
3.6.3.6 Kalajoki, Finland
3.7 Guidelines and Evaluation Criteria for Climate Adaptation Measures
3.7.2 BECCA Outcome Criteria
3.7.3 BECCA Process Criteria
3.7.4 Guidance on How to Use BECCA
3.7.5 Tailoring BECCA to Adaptation Contexts
3.7.5.1 Outcome-oriented versus process-driven adaptation evaluation
3.7.5.2 Retrospective versus prospective evaluation
3.7.5.3 Evaluation of single versus integrated measures
3.7.5.4 Evaluation of bottom-up versus top-down adaptation approach
3.7.5.5 Evaluation of conflictual versus consensual adaptation settings
3.7.6 Key Messages on the Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation
4 Upscaling the Impacts of Climate Change in Different Sectors and Adaptation Strategies
4.2 Dealing With River Flood Risks and Adaptation
4.2.1 Model Description and Progress in Developments
4.2.1.2 Baseline climate and climate projections
4.2.1.3 Flood hazard model
4.2.1.5 Estimation of flood protection
4.2.1.6 Adaptation measures: different strategies correspond to different actions
4.2.1.8 Adaptation tipping points
4.2.2.1 Cost and benefits of the reference scenario
4.2.2.2 Cost and benefits of adaptation strategies
4.2.2.2.1 Flood protection
4.2.2.2.2 Adapted buildings
4.2.2.3 Impact tipping points
4.2.3 Uncertainty Analysis
4.2.4 Policy Implications
4.3 Agricultural Adaptation
4.3.1 Model Description and Progress in Developments
4.3.1.1 The SARA framework
4.3.2 Analysis of Adaptation
4.3.2.2 Efficiency and effectiveness
4.3.2.3 Uncertainty, limitations and strenghts
4.3.3 Validation Using Case Studies
4.3.4 Cost and Benefits of the Reference Scenario
4.3.4.1 Model results: The integrated simulation aggregates the outcomes from the different models
4.3.4.1.1 The ClimateCrop model
4.3.4.1.2 The Water availability model
4.3.4.1.3 The Land Use model
4.3.4.1.4 The Crop Share model
4.3.4.2 Analysis of cost and benefits
4.3.5 Cost and Benefits of Adaptation Strategies
4.3.5.1 Adaptation through improved management
4.3.5.2 Adaptation through increased irrigation
4.3.7 Uncertainty Analysis
4.3.7.1 Changes in projected population
4.3.7.2 Changes in projected cultivated land
4.3.7.3 Changes in projected crop yield
4.3.7.4 Changes in projected per-capita domestic water withdrawal
4.3.7.5 Changes in projected surface water availability
4.3.7.6 Changes in projected groundwater availability
4.3.8 Policy Implications
4.3.8.2 Benefits of adaptation
4.3.8.3 Choice of adaptation
4.4 Addressing Health Impacts and Adaptation
4.4.1 Model Description: Backgrounds and General Assumptions
4.4.2 Heat Mortality, a European-Scale Analysis
4.4.2.3 Costs and benefits of adaptation
4.4.3 Salmonellosis, a European-Scale Analysis
4.4.3.2 The Cost of Impacts
4.4.3.3 Costs and benefits of adaptation
4.4.3.4 Malaria and diarrhea (global-scale)
4.4.3.4.2 Costs and benefits of adaptation
4.4.3.5 Caveats, assumptions and policy implications
4.4.4 Adaptation and Carbon Storage
4.4.4.1 Model description and progress in developments
4.4.4.2 Results of the biophysical and economic assessment
4.4.4.3 Validation using case studies
4.4.4.4 Uncertainty analysis
4.4.4.5 Policy implications
4.5.1 Evaluation and Uncertainty Analysis
4.5.5 Carbon Sequestration
5 Economy-Wide Impacts of Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies Across European Regions
5.2.3 Embedding Uncertainty and Risk Into the AD-WITCH Damage Function
5.2.4 Computing the Risk-Premium-Corrected Damage Functions in the AD-WITCH Model
5.2.5 New Estimates of Adaptation Cost-Effectiveness in Agriculture, Flood Prevention, and Health
5.2.5.3 Agriculture and water
5.2.5.4 The final outcome of the calibration procedure using sectoral models
5.3 Revised Assessment of Costs and Benefits of Adaptation and Mitigation
5.3.1 Accounting for Uncertainty and Risk Aversion
5.3.2 Revisiting Impacts and Adaptation in Health, Floods, and Agriculture
5.4 Results From the Updated AD-WITCH Model
6 Analyzing the Policy Framework for Climate Change Adaptation
6.2 The National and Supranational Policy Frameworks
6.2.1 The EU Adaptation Strategy and Its Program Theory
6.2.1.1 Analytical framework for analyzing the EU adaptation strategy
6.2.1.1.1 Normative orientation
6.2.1.1.2 Governance of policy integration
6.2.1.2 Interpretations of climate policy integration in the European Union adaptation strategy
6.2.1.2.1 Orientation of the EU adaptation strategy
6.2.1.2.2 Governance of climate policy integration in the adaptation strategy
6.2.1.3 Overall assessment of the EU strategy
6.2.2 National Adaptation Strategies
6.2.2.1 Data collection and analytical framework
6.2.2.2 Coordination mechanisms for policy integration through the example of National adaptation strategies
6.2.2.3 Policy instruments used in support of the development of European Member State NASs
6.3 Coherent and Effective Climate Adaptation Policies
6.3.1 Incremental and Transformational Adaptation
6.3.1.1 Regulatory vs developmental policies
6.3.1.2 Dealing with risks in transformational adaptation
6.3.2 The Public–Private Relationship and Policies
6.3.2.1 Regulating or enabling private action
6.3.2.2 The division of responsibility and competencies between public and private actors
6.3.2.3 Funding and financing adaptation
6.3.3 Bottom-Up Decision-Making and Policy Implications
6.3.4 Implementing Adaptation Policies
6.4 Integrating Adaptation Into Key Sectoral Policies
7.2 Barriers Slow Down Progress
7.3 Scope for Cross-Sector and Cross-Regional Learning
7.4 Storylines Can Help in Understanding What Lies Ahead
7.5 There Is a Need for Diversity in Economic Assessments
7.6 The Importance of Uncertainties
7.7 Participation Requires Careful Planning
7.8 Policy-Making Needs to Consider Multiple Pathways
Adapting to Climate Change in Europe
：Exploring Sustainable Pathways - From Local Measures to Wider Policies
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