Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security ( NATO Security through Science Series - E: Human and Societal Dynamics )

Publication series : NATO Security through Science Series - E: Human and Societal Dynamics

Author: Devezas T.C.  

Publisher: Ios Press‎

Publication year: 2006

E-ISBN: 9781607501602

P-ISBN(Paperback): 9781586035884

Subject: O152.7 Group

Keyword: 政治、法律

Language: ENG

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Description

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the underlying mechanisms driving the long-wave behavior of the world socioeconomic development. In spite of this progress one recognizes that many aspects related with these underlying driving forces remained unsolved. One of these aspects endured, perhaps as the most controversial one: the close relationship between K-waves and the outbreak of major wars. Social scientists and politicians are well acquainted with the fact that chance events have been responsible for the outbreak of wars and their course and outcome. Two main trends are now acknowledged: the increasing recognition of the existence of some cyclical patterns of warfare involving the core of the world system, and a shift toward newly evolving patterns involving non-state actors and asymmetric warfare. We may tentatively agree that wars are not merely the result of blind social and political forces, but patterned according to long socioeconomic cycles and the result of deep and general laws underlying the co-evolutionary unfolding of the world system. In the first part of this book, the reader will find a mix of contributions dealing with new visions or revisions of the concept of long waves considered from very different perspectives related to their unfolding. Those contributions discussing the issue of K-waves and their relation with military conflicts objectively, following old and / or new conceptualizations of the phenomenon, were selected to form the b

Chapter

Economic Cycles Under Test: A Spectral Analysis

Are There Long-Term Cycles in the Evolution of the Oil Price? A Research Using the Hodrick-Prescott Filter

Did the Fifth K-Wave Begin in 1990-92? Has It Been Aborted by Globalization?

The Cyclic Dynamics of the Venture Capital

If This Long Wave Steeps-Up and Breaks: What Then?

Empirical Evidence and Causation of Kondratieff Cycles

Principles of Self-Organization and Sustainable Development of the World Economy: From Local Conflicts to Global Security

Waves of Socio-Economic Development: An Evolutionary Perspective

Who Was Right? Kuznets in 1930 or Schumpeter in 1939?

On Kondratieff's "Suzdal Letters" and Transformation of K-Cycles Approach (1932-1938)

Kondratieff Waves and Warfare

The Predictive Power of Long Wave Theory, 1989-2004

Did World War II Reset the 'Rhythm' of the Kondratieff Wave?

Long Waves in Global Warfare and Maritime Hegemony? A Complex Systems Perspective

Wars on the Borders of Europe and Socio-Economic Long Cycles

Is History Automatic and Are Wars a la Carte? The Perplexing Suggestions of a System Analysis of Historical Time Series

Long Cycles, Global Wars and World Energy Consumption

Emergent Violence, Global Wars, and Terrorism

Human Behaviors Encountered During the Different Phases of the Kondratieff Cycle

The Extent of the Kondratieff Wave's Effect on Violence in the North-South Context

Globalization and Risks of Instability

Cycles of Political Violence: Urban Guerrilla and Insurgent Groups

Reverse Engineering Asymmetric Warfare: Applying Space-Time, Matter-Energy and Organizational-Doctrinal Analysis to Al Qaeda Operations

The Asymmetrical 21st Century Security Reality

The Emergence of Modern Terrorism

Looking into the Future

The Russian Potential of Asymmetrical Wars of the 21st Century: Social-Economic Aspect

The Information and Molecular Ages: Will K-Waves Persist?

Warfare and International Security: Future Perspective

Economic Cycles in a Closed Finite World

Innovation Economy: Challenges and Threats to Russia

Global Political Evolution, Long Cycles, and K-Waves

The Social Progress and Security Problems

Alternative Futures for K-Waves

Risk Management in Uncertain Times

Cyclicity of Strategic Challenges in Russian History and Development Scenario for the 21st Century

Author Index

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