Title page

Preface

Contents

Summary

Samenvatting

Introduction

Coastal hazards, damage and human suffering

Coastal vulnerability and disaster management

Disaster management: global initiatives

Disaster management in practice broadens its scope

Vulnerability reduction as an ill-structured problem

The need for new knowledge and tools

The differential nature of vulnerability

Research objective

Research questions

The research strategy

Three research perspectives

The Model perspective

The Applications perspective

The Context perspective

Structure of the thesis

Part 1: Describing the Experience

Design and application of an Expert Decision Support System (EDSS) for coastal Andhra Pradesh

Describing the process: the Andhra Pradesh Cyclone Hazard Mitigation Project (APCHMP)

The assignment

The study approach

Towards integration

Design of the EDSS

The design process

Main features of the EDSS

Functional design of the EDSS

Application of the EDSS for the Godavari Delta

Brief introduction to the Godavari Delta

Input data

Calibration of the DSS

Calibration of the Socio-economic Assessment Module (SAM)

Calibration of the Environmental Assessment Module (EAM)

Calibration of the Cyclone Vulnerability Module (CVM)

Scenario and strategy analysis with the EDSS

Part 2: Literature Study

Defining vulnerability

Definitions

Theories on vulnerability

Causes of vulnerability

Theories

Making vulnerability operational - a conceptual model

Hazard

Exposure

Sensitivity

Resilience

A working definition of vulnerability

Measuring vulnerability

Existing vulnerability assessment methods

Evaluation of existing methods

From assessment to modelling

Why should we model vulnerability?

What makes vulnerability modelling difficult?

Model building blocks

Conclusions

Choices in integrated modelling

Vulnerability and the need for integration

The origin of integrated modelling

Characteristics of integrated models

Key methodological issues in integrated modelling

Integration of issues and interactions requires a system approach

Stakeholder involvement

Integration of disciplines: interdisciplinarity

Scale issues and aggregation

The integration of models

Model validation

Why is validation of an integrated model difficult?

Defining validation

Validation criteria

Conclusions

Policy Analysis: linking context with content

Introduction

A brief introduction to policy analysis, with emphasis on the Dutch experience

Styles of Policy Analysis

The decision making context of vulnerability assessments

Styles and models for policy analysis

Factors influencing model design in PA

Conclusions

Part 3: Evaluation of the model

Dissecting the Andhra Pradesh Experience

Analysing the EDSS model (Model Perspective)

Evaluating the boundaries and structure of the model

The Boundary Diagram of the EDSS

The Reference Structure and the EDSS

Analysing the EDSS model using the vulnerability framework

Conclusions pertaining to the Model Perspective

Analysing the Application of the EDSS for Andhra Pradesh

Data availability and reliability

Model calibration

Scenario and strategy choices

Interpretation of the model results

Conclusions from the Application Perspective

Analysing the design process (Context perspective)

The policy analysis style of the Andhra Pradesh study

India as context of the study

Decisive factors in the EDSS model design process

Conclusions from the Context Perspective

Test case Red River Delta, Vietnam

Introduction

A geographic and socio-economic profile of the Red River Delta

The Bac Hung Hai Polder

Model input

Land use and socio-economy

Industry and commercial sector

Labour supply and income distribution

Flood probability and vulnerability

Model calibration

Socio-economic module

Flood vulnerability module

Scenario and strategy analysis

Scenarios

Flood risk and vulnerability strategies

Comparison with the Godavari Delta, India

Conclusions

Synthesis of the model evaluation

Expert Panel evaluation workshop

The Model perspective

The model's strengths

The model's limitations

The Application perspective

The Context perspective

Conclusions and discussion

Conclusions

Question 1: What are the characteristics of vulnerability and how can these be conceptualised?

Question 2: how can we model vulnerability?

Question 3: How useful (valid) is the model?

Question 4: What can we learn from the model applications?

Question 5a: Which factors played a crucial role in the model design?

Question 5b: Have crucial factors in the design of the model influenced its general applicability?

Advancements and improvements in modelling vulnerability

Methodological considerations

References

Appendix 1: List of participants in the Expert Panel

Appendix 2: Documentation list of the Andhra Pradesh ICZM study

Appendix 3: List of input files for the EDSS Godavari Delta Application

Acknowledgements

Curriculum Vitae