IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN MEXICO, THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA

IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN MEXICO, THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA

CONTENTS

PREFACE

Chapter 1 MEXICO, THE CARIBBEAN, AND CENTRAL AMERICA: THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO 2030- A COMMISSIONED RESEARCH REPORT

SCOPE NOTE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

Current State of the Region

Belize

Cuba

Dominican Republic

Guatemala

Haiti

Honduras

Mexico

Nicaragua

Panama

Puerto Rico

Emissions

Economic Growth and Development

Energy Systems

Food Production and Drinking Water Supply

Human Health

PROJECTED REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate Observations

Climate Predictions (Modeling)

Climate Projections of Future Temperature and Precipitation

Projections of Changes in Agricultural Growing Seasons

Changes in the Frequency or Strength of Extreme Climatic Events

IMPACT BY COUNTRY OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN-NATURAL SYSTEMS

Belize

Cuba

Dominican Republic

Guatemala

Haiti

Honduras

Mexico

Nicaragua

Panama

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

The Caribbean and Central American Region in a Global Context

Human and Civic Resources

Economic Capacity

Caribbean and Central American Countries Compared to Each Other

Key Contributors to Adaptive Capacity by Country

ANNEX A: ACCURACY OF REGIONAL MODELS

11.6.2. Skill of Models in Simulating Present Climate

ANNEX B. INFORMATION DEFICIENCIES THAT PRECLUDE A FULL EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CENTRAL AMERICA, THE CARIBBEAN, AND THE REGION’S ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

CONCLUSIONS

ANNEX C: ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENTS SIGNED BY SELECTED LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES

End Notes

Chapter 2 MEXICO, THE CARIBBEAN, AND CENTRAL AMERICA: THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO 2030: GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS

SCOPE NOTE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

Social, Political, and Economic Challenges

Meteorological Challenges

Agricultural Challenges

Coastal and Maritime Challenges

Hydrologic Challenges

Demographic and Public Health Challenges

Economic and Energy Challenges

Civil and Key Interest Group Responses

Potential Responses

Adaptive Capacity

State Responses

International Efforts

Cuba and Haiti

Regional Implications

Overall Foreign Policy Implications

Climate Change Negotiations

End Notes

CHAPTER SOURCES

INDEX