Chapter
2.4 Results and discussion
3 Evaluating the impacts of carbonaceous aerosols on clouds and climate
3.3 Aerosol indirect effect on warm clouds
3.3.1 Black carbon aerosol effects on clouds
3.3.2 Aerosol effects on convective clouds
3.3.3 Regional impacts of aerosols on clouds and climate
Black carbon aerosol effects on regional climate
Effects of biomass aerosols over Amazonia
4 Probabilistic estimates of climate change: methods, assumptions and examples
4.1 Introduction to approaches to estimating future climate change
4.2 State-of-the-art climate models
4.3 Sensitivity to parameters, parameterizations and models
4.4 Statistical estimation using observational constraints
4.4.1 Introduction to components of an estimation problem
Modeled climate response to forcing
Climate forcing: observations and modeling
Modeled climate variability
4.4.3 Modeled observations
4.4.4 Statistical estimation: methods, assumptions and examples
5 The potential response of historical terrestrial carbon storage to changes in land use, atmospheric CO2, and climate
5.2.3 Model simulation experiments
5.3.1 Net land–atmosphere carbon flux
5.3.2 Climate and CO2 fertilization feedbacks
6 The albedo climate impacts of biomass and carbon plantations compared with the CO2 impact
6.2 Scenarios and assumptions
6.2.1 Scenario development
6.2.2 Geographic potential for biomass and carbon plantations
6.3 Description of models and further specification of scenario experiments
6.3.1 IMAGE-2.2 model and experiment set-up
6.3.2 The IMAGE energy model TIMER
6.3.3 The IMAGE terrestrial models
6.3.4 The three land-use change experiments with IMAGE
6.3.5 ECBilt-CLIO model and experiment set-up
6.4 Impacts of plantations on CO2, albedo and climate
6.5 Discussion and conclusions
7 Overshoot pathways to CO2 stabilization in a multi-gas context
7.2 Future CO2, CH4 and N2O concentrations
7.3 Implications for CO2 emissions
7.4 Temperature and sea-level implications
8 Effects of air pollution control on climate: results from an integrated global system model
8.3 Integrated Global System Model
8.4 Numerical experiments
8.4.1 Effects on concentrations
8.4.2 Effects on ecosystems
8.4.4 Effects on temperature and sea level
8.5 Summary and conclusions
Part II Impacts and adaptation
9 Dynamic forecasts of the sectoral impacts of climate change
10 Assessing impacts and responses to global-mean sea-level rise
10.2 Sea-level rise, impacts and responses
10.3 Regional to global assessments
Economy-wide impact estimates
10.4 Sub-national to national assessments
10.4.1 National-scale flood risk analysis
10.4.2 Sub-national-scale analysis
10.5 Discussion/conclusion
11 Developments in health models for integrated assessments
11.2 Projecting the health impacts of climate change
11.2.1 Individual disease models
11.2.2 Applying a quantitative relationship between socio-economic development and malaria
11.2.3 Global Burden of Disease study
11.3 Projecting the health benefits of controlling greenhouse gas emissions
11.4 Projecting the economic costs of the health impacts of climate change
11.5.1 Population health model
11.6 Future directions in the development of health impact models
12 The impact of climate change on tourism and recreation
12.2 The importance of climate and weather for tourism and recreation
12.2.1 Attitudinal studies
12.2.2 Behavioral studies
12.3 The impact of climate change on tourism and recreation
12.3.1 Qualitative impact studies
12.3.2 Impact on the supply of tourism services
12.3.3 Impact on climatic attractiveness
12.3.4 The impact on demand
12.3.5 Impact on global tourism flows
12.4 Discussion and conclusion
13 Using adaptive capacity to gain access to the decision-intensive ministries
13.2 The state of knowledge about adaptation in 2004
13.3 Some insights from the economics literature
13.4 Opening the doors to the decision-intensive ministries
14 The impacts of climate change on Africa
14.2 The analytical framework
Part III Mitigation of greenhouse gases
15 Bottom-up modeling of energy and greenhouse gas emissions: approaches, results, and challenges to inclusion of end-use technologies
15.2 Bottom-up assessment structure and models
15.3 Accounting models: salient results
15.4 Other bottom-up models: costs and carbon emissions projections
15.5 Key challenges in the bottom-up modeling approach
15.5.1 Conceptual framework: factors, potentials, and transaction costs
15.5.2 Empirical evidence of the influence of factors
Accounting for transaction costs
Accounting for technological change
Inclusion of non-energy benefits
Aggregation over time, regions, sectors, and consumers
16 Technology in an integrated assessment model: the potential regional deployment of carbon capture and storage in the context of global CO2 stabilization
16.2 A regionally disaggregated CO2 storage potential
16.5 The reference scenario
16.6 Carbon dioxide concentrations and the global value of carbon
16.7 The regional marginal cost of storage
16.8 The regional pattern of cumulative CO2 storage over the twenty-first century
16.9 Technology choice and regional storage
16.10 The economic value of CCS
17 Hydrogen for light-duty vehicles: opportunities and barriers in the United States
17.1 Underlying energy policy issues
17.2 Hydrogen: an emerging energy carrier?
17.3 Hydrogen for light duty vehicles: the opportunity
17.3.1 Unit carbon dioxide releases of hydrogen production technologies
17.3.2 Unit costs of hydrogen production technologies
17.3.3 Three scenarios of vehicle technology adoption
Light duty vehicles in the three scenarios
Fuel use by light duty vehicles in the three scenarios
Carbon dioxide emissions by light duty vehicles in the three scenarios
17.4 Hydrogen for light duty vehicles: the barriers
17.4.1 Demand-side technology barriers in vehicles
17.4.2 Supply-side technology barriers
17.4.3 Fueling cost barriers hydrogen to production
17.4.4 Fueling cost barriers: hydrogen retailing/other infrastructure
17.4.5 Resource limitations
Natural gas supply and demand
Resources for geological storage
17.4.6 Other barriers to consumer adoption
17.4.7 Competitive technologies
18 The role of expectations in modeling costs of climate change policies
18.2 Modeling with perfect foresight
18.2.1 Basic structure of the multi-region national model
18.2.4 Sectoral disaggregation
18.2.6 Policy instruments
18.2.7 Representation of production and consumption decisions
18.2.8 Representation of international trade
18.2.9 MRN’s personal automobile use component
18.2.11 Welfare measurement
18.3 Defining policy scenarios for the long term
18.3.2 Three alternative extensions of the McCain–Lieberman Phase I cap
18.4 MRN results of three alternative extensions of McCain–Lieberman
18.5 Implications for long-term expectations in policy analysis
18.5.1 Scenario 1: Phase I lasts forever – no change in policy
18.5.2 Scenario 2: Phase I cap is loosened
18.5.3 Scenario 3: cap is tightened after 2020
18.6 Policy expectations and policy analysis
18.7 Modeling uncertainty: three approaches
18.8 Description of the stochastic model
18.9 Comparison of results under balanced cases
18.10 The importance of changes in legislation on expectations
18.10.1 How are market expectations changed?
19 A sensitivity analysis of forest carbon sequestration
19.3 Analysis and results
19.4.2 Sensitivity analysis with no carbon sequestration program
19.4.3 Sensitivity analysis of carbon sequestration programs
19.5 Discussion and conclusion
Appendix A19.1 Global forestry model
20 Insights from EMF-associated agricultural and forestry greenhouse gas mitigation studies
20.2 Types of insights to be discussed
20.2.1 Mitigation strategy portfolio
Portfolio price dependency
20.2.2 Portfolio variation over time
20.2.3 Policy design dependency
20.2.4 Portfolio variation over space
20.2.5 Individual item potential and portfolio role
20.2.6 Mitigation portfolio: dynamics and economy-wide role
20.3 Mitigation activities: effects on traditional production
20.4 Environmental co-effects
Appendix 20.1 Basic structure of some agricultural and forest-related models
A20.1.1 Agricultural sector and mitigation of greenhouse gas (ASMGHG) model
A20.1.2 Forest and agricultural sector optimization and mitigation of greenhouse gas (FASOMGHG) model
21 Global agricultural land-use data for integrated assessment modeling
21.3 Global land-use data from SAGE
21.4 Incorporating SAGE agricultural land-use data into GTAP
21.4.1 Development of global agro-ecological zones
21.4.2 Deriving crop production data
21.5.1 Overview of land use and production by AEZ
21.5.2 Implications for the cost of mitigation
Appendix A21.1 Key assumptions and procedures
A21.1.1 Crop harvested area
A21.1.2 Estimating crop yields from FAO data
Estimating crop yields by AEZ for countries without FAO data
Recalibrating the yield data to year 2001
22 Past, present, and future of non-CO2 gas mitigation analysis
22.2 Summary of non-CO2 gases and sources
22.3 Early work on non-CO2 GHGs
22.4 Recent work on non-CO2 GHGs
22.4.1 Methane from the energy and waste sectors
22.4.2 Methane and nitrous oxide from other non-agricultural sectors
22.4.3 Methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture
22.4.5 Summary of NCGG mitigation results
22.5 New directions in NCGG mitigation analysis
22.5.1 Improved cost estimates for the energy and waste sectors
22.5.2 Comparison with EMF-21 MACs
22.5.3 Improvements to fluorinated gas analyses
23 How (and why) do climate policy costs differ among countries?
23.3.2 Simulation results
23.4 Cost concepts and why countries differ
23.4.1 An equal-reduction comparison
23.4.2 The influences on national cost
24 Lessons for mitigation from the foundations of monetary policy in the United States
24.3 Extending the model to include a climate module
24.3.1 The climate lever in an isolated policy environment
24.3.2 The climate lever in an integrated policy environment
24.4 The hedging alternative under profound uncertainty about climate sensitivity
24.4.1 A policy hedging exercise built around uncertainty about climate sensitivity
Part IV Policy design and decisionmaking under uncertainty
25 Climate policy design under uncertainty
25.2 Background on market-based programs: experience with cost uncertainty
25.3 Uncertainty about climate change mitigation benefits
25.4 Price-based approaches
25.5 Intensity targets: disarming long-term concerns
26 Climate policy assessment using the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model
26.2 Integrated modeling framework
26.3 Climate change impacts on crop productivity
26.3.1 Methods and scenarios
26.3.2 Key gaps in impact assessment studies
Range of uncertainty in future climate projection by AO-GCMs
26.3.3 Climate change impacts mitigated by GHG stabilization policy
26.4 Multi-gas analysis of stabilization scenarios
26.4.1 Global emission pathways
26.4.2 Burden sharing and its economic impact using AIM/CGE [Global]
Regional allocation cap using burden sharing model
Regional economic impacts using AIM/CGE [Global]
26.5 Reduction target for CO2 in Japan and its cost
26.5.1 Technologies to achieve Kyoto Protocol
26.5.2 Economic impact of Kyoto Protocol
27 Price, quantity, and technology strategies for climate change policy
27.2 Why climate change is different from previous externality problems
27.3 What kind of new technology is required?
27.4 Climate policy must focus on creating and adopting new technology
27.5 Induced technological change in economic models
27.7 The basic economics of R&D
27.8 Emission trading and R&D-based ITC
27.9 The fundamental impossibility
27.10 Carbon taxes also are ineffective for R&D-based ITC
27.11 Dynamic inconsistency in using emissions taxes to stimulate ITC
27.12 Implications for technology policy
27.13 The fundamental problem is the need for effective R&D
27.15 Grants and tax incentives
27.18 The challenge for climate change policy analysis
28 What is the economic value of information about climate thresholds?
28.2 What defines a climate threshold?
28.2.1 The North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
28.2.2 The West Antarctic Ice Sheet
28.2.3 What levels of anthropogenic climate change may trigger these threshold responses?
28.3 A simple integrated assessment model of climate change
28.4 Results and discussion
28.5 An outline for an economic analysis of MOC observation systems
28.6 Open research questions
29 Boiled frogs and path dependency in climate policy decisions
29.2. The modeling system and the Boiled Frog
29.2.1 The MIT Integrated Global System Model
29.2.2 Fitting reduced-form models
29.2.3 The decision model
29.3 Hysteresis and path dependency in climate policy decisions
29.3.1 The political context and path dependency
29.3.2 Modeling path dependency
29.3.3 Results with path dependency
30 Article 2 and long-term climate stabilization: methods and models for decisionmaking under uncertainty
30.2 Interpretations of Article 2 and related uncertainties
30.3 Analytical frameworks and models: a sampler
30.3.1 Smooth versus optimal stabilization paths
30.3.2 Safe landing analysis
30.3.3 Exploratory modeling
30.3.4 Tolerable Windows/Inverse/Guardrails Approach
30.3.5 Concentration stabilization pathways
30.3.6 Probabilistic integrated assessment
30.4 Comparative evaluation
30.5 Summary and conclusions
31 Whither integrated assessment? Reflections from the leading edge
31.2 The IA model for climate: a stylized description
31.3 Where we are now: a critical view
31.4 What do we need to do to move ahead?
32 Moving beyond concentrations: the challenge of limiting temperature change
32.3 Treatment of technologies
32.4 Treatment of uncertainty
32.5 Why is temperature a more meaningful metric than atmospheric concentrations?
32.6 Temperature change in the absence of climate policy
32.7 A ceiling on temperature increase
32.8 The role of technology in containing the costs of climate policy
32.9 The relative contribution of the various greenhouse gases to radiative forcing
32.10 Some concluding remarks
Appendix A32.1 Climate model
33 International climate policy: approaches to policies and measures, and international coordination and cooperation
33.2 Principles for effective policy
33.2.1 Environmental effectiveness
Focus on the right environmental objective
Involve all large emitters
33.2.2 Economic efficiency
Embrace all opportunities for mitigation
Facilitate market-based solutions
Recognize the role of technology
Act over the appropriate time-frame
Be flexible in the light of new knowledge
Include adaptation strategies
Consistency with sustainable economic development
33.3 The current policy framework scorecard
33.4.2 Leveraging existing domestic drivers for further international cooperation
33.5 Technology: a key element for success
33.5.1 Examples of potential technology opportunities
33.5.2 Impediments to the diffusion of technology
33.6 Advantages of the proposed framework
Human-Induced Climate Change
：An Interdisciplinary Assessment
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