Chapter
Experiment 3 – Perception of Variability: Relationship
to Working-Memory Capacity
Experiment 4 – Variability as Observed, or Corrected for Sample Size?
Evidence from Choices and Confidence in Them
Experiment 5 – Sample Composition: A Primacy Effect
3 Intuitive Judgments about Sample Size
Different kinds of sample-size tasks
Frequency Distribution Tasks versus Sampling Distribution Tasks
Introductory text (both versions):
Sampling distribution version:
Frequency distribution version:
Answer alternatives (both versions):
Associative learning and sample-based judgments
Confidence and Sample Size
Implicit Sample-Size Information: The Role
of Representational Format
When to expect biased sample-based judgments
Biased Input and Biased Responses
Unbiased Input and Biased Responses
The Impact of Encoding Processes
Deliberative versus Intuitive Judgments
Sampling Distribution Tasks
4 The Role of Information Sampling in Risky Choice
Decisions from experience in monetary gambles
Information search in decisions from experience
Information integration in decisions from experience: the value-updating model
A Mere Mention Lends Weight
Small Samples Show Less Variability
Primacy and Recency Join Forces
5 Less Is More in Covariation Detection - Or Is It?
Small samples and early detection of correlation
Can less knowledge be an advantage?
Deciding on a Course of Action
Detection of Correlation in Simulated Environments
Can less never be more? a new look at advantages of small samples
Looking for Alternative Assumptions Leading
to Small-Sample Advantage
Conclusions (separately by the authors)
Part III Biased and Unbiased Judgments from Biased Samples
6 Subjective Validity Judgments as an Index of Sensitivity to Sampling Bias
The sampling approach to judgment biases
The information search paradigm
The subjective validity paradigm
Sensitivity to Information Generation versus Information Integration
The Matter-of-Factness of Sample Statistics
Feedback on the Appropriateness of Sampling Procedures
Sensitivity by Experience
Status of the svp as an experimental tool
7 An Analysis of Structural Availability Biases, and a Brief Study
Overview of the small study
8 Subjective Confidence and the Sampling of Knowledge
Phenomena of subjective confidence
What Happened to Overconfidence in Two-Choice Questions?
Overconfidence in interval estimates i: naïve sampling
Why Should Assessment Format Matter with Nave Sampling?
Overconfidence in interval estimates ii: biased sampling and interpretation
Why Should Assessment Format Matter with Biased Sampling?
Differences among Methods of Eliciting Subjective Intervals
9 Contingency Learning and Biased Group Impressions
Overview of the procedure and analysis
Source Monitoring Analysis
Biased group impressions from trivariate samples
Simplistic Reasoning or Pseudo-Contingency
Analysis of Interindividual Differences
Testing new predictions of the pseudo-contingency account
Group Judgments on the Basis of a New Stimulus Distribution
Group Judgments on the Basis of Incomplete Trivariate Information
10 Mental Mechanisms: Speculations on Human Causal Learning and Reasoning
Mental mechanisms versus logical representation
Reasoning with and without mental mechanisms: sampling in the monty hall problem
Learning mental mechanisms from data
Part IV What Information Contents are Sampled?
11 Whats in a Sample? A Manual for Building Cognitive Theories
Study Ideal Types, Not Samples
Do researchers sample participants?
Do researchers sample objects?
Do researchers sample variables?
When Is It Adaptive Not to Sample?
Does the mind sample variables?
12 Assessing Evidential Support in Uncertain Environments
Testing ESAM's Assumptions
13 Information Sampling in Group Decision Making: Sampling Biases and Their Consequences
Biased sampling in favor of shared information
Collective Information Sampling
Sequential Entry of Shared and Unshared Information into the Discussion
Repeating Shared and Unshared Information
Biased sampling in favor of preference-consistent information
The Bias toward Discussing Preference-Consistent Information
Preference-Consistent Framing of Information
Biased Group Search for External Information
The consequences of biased information sampling in groups
Group-Level Explanations for the Failure of Groups to Solve Hidden Profiles
Biased Information Evaluation as an Explanation for the Failure to Solve Hidden Profiles
14 Confidence in Aggregation of Opinions from Multiple Sources
Aggregation by individual dms and confidence in the aggregate
A model of the aggregation process and confidence
Empirical tests of the model
Discussion of the model theoretical and practical implications
Collectivism and individualism in social psychology
Sampling the self in the laboratory
A projection model of in-group bias
Part V Vicissitudes of Sampling in the Researchers Minds and Methods
16 Which World Should Be Represented in Representative Design?
Brunswik's critique of psychologists' way of conducting business
Probabilistic Functionalism and Representative Design
Does sampling of experimental stimuli matter?
Do Judgment Policies Differ in Representative versus Systematic Designs?
How Rational Do People Appear in Representative and Systematic Designs? The Case of Overconfidence and Hindsight Bias
Representative design and size of the reference class
Study 1: Over-/Underconfidence Depends on the Size
of the Reference Class
Study 2: Policy Capturing and the Size of the Reference Class
Selection of the Reference Class: A Time-Honored
and Ubiquitous Problem
Selection of the Reference Class in Psychological Theory and Experimental Practice
17 “I’m m n Confident That I’m Correct”: Confidence in Foresight and Hindsight as
a Sampling Probability
Over- and underconfidence in foresight
Over- and underestimation in hindsight
Why Is Representative Design Essential to Studies of Hindsight Bias?
I Never Would Have Known That: A Reversal of the Hindsight Bias
What Does Random Sampling of Items Do to the Hindsight Bias?
“I Was Well Calibrated All Along!”
Are There Global Hindsight Effects?
18 Natural Sampling of Stimuli in (Artificial) Grammar Learning
Agl as a representative design for natural grammar learning study
How natural sampling of experimental stimuli can bring back the old agenda of agl
The impact of the frequency distribution of learning exemplars on the learnability of the grammar: a simulation
19
Is Confidence in Decisions Related to Feedback?
Evidence from Random Samples of
Real-World Behavior
ESM Questionnaire Results
Current Activities and Domains of Decisions
Confidence in the "Right" Decision
Confidence, Feedback, and Time
Information Sampling and Adaptive Cognition
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