Chapter
EA: Ecosystem-Based Approaches to Adaptation—Emerging Opportunities
GC: Gender and Climate Change
HS: Heat Stress and Heat Waves
KR: A Selection of the Hazards, Key Vulnerabilities, Key Risks, and Emergent Risks Identified in the WGII Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report
MB: Observed Global Responses of Marine Biogeography, Abundance, and Phenology to Climate Change
PP: Net Primary Production in the Ocean
TC: Regional Climate Summary Figures
RF: Impact of Climate Change on Freshwater Ecosystems due to Altered River Flow Regimes
TC: Building Long-Term Resilience from Tropical Cyclone Disasters
UP: Uncertain Trends in Major Upwelling Ecosystems
UR: Urban–Rural Interactions – Context for Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation
VW: Active Role of Vegetation in Altering Water Flows under Climate Change
WE: The Water–Energy–Food/Feed/Fiber Nexus as Linked to Climate Change
1.1.1. Development of the Science Basis for the Assessment
1.1.2. Evolution of the Working Group II Assessment Reports and Treatment of Uncertainty
1.1.2.1. Framing and Outlines of Working Group II Assessment Reports
1.1.2.2. Treatment of Uncertainties in IPCC Assessment Reports: A Brief History and Terms Used in the Fifth Assessment Report
1.1.3. Scenarios Used as Inputs to Working Group II Assessments
1.1.3.1. Comparison of RCP and SRES Scenarios
1.1.3.2. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
1.1.4. Evolution of Understanding the Interaction between Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability with Human and Sustainable Development
1.1.4.1. Vulnerability and Multiple Stressors
1.1.4.2. Adaptation, Mitigation, and Development
1.1.4.3. Transformation and Climate-Resilient Pathways
1.1.4.4. The Opportunity Space for Decision Making
1.2. Major Conclusions of the Working Group II Fourth Assessment Report
1.2.2. Key Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Reasons for Concern
1.2.3. Interaction of Adaptation and Mitigation in a Policy Portfolio
1.3. Major Conclusions of More Recent IPCC Reports
1.3.1. Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation
1.3.2. Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
1.3.2.1. Themes and Findings of Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
1.3.2.2. Advances in Conceptualizing Climate Change Vulnerability, Adaptation, and Risk Management in the Context of Human Development
1.3.3. Relevant Findings from IPCC Working Group I Fifth Assessment Report
1.3.4. Relevant Findings from IPCC Working Group III Fifth Assessment Report
Frequently Asked Questions
1.1: On what information is the new assessment based, and how has that information changed since the last report, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in 2007?
1.2: How is the state of scientific understanding and uncertainty communicated in this assessment?
1.3: How has our understanding of the interface between human, natural, and climate systems expanded since the 2007 IPCC Assessment?
2 Foundations for Decision Making
2.1. Introduction and Key Concepts
2.1.1. Decision-Making Approaches in this Report
2.1.2. Iterative Risk Management
2.2. Contexts for Decision Making
2.2.1.1. Cultural Values and Determinants
2.2.1.3. Language and Meaning
2.2.2. Institutional Context
2.3. Methods, Tools, and Processes for Climate-related Decisions
2.3.1. Treatment of Uncertainties
2.3.3. Evaluating Trade-offs and Multi-metric Valuation
2.3.4. Learning, Review, and Reframing
2.4. Support for Climate-related Decisions
2.4.1. Climate Information and Services
2.4.1.1. Climate Services: History and Concepts
2.4.1.2. Climate Services: Practices and Decision Support
2.4.1.3. The Geo-political Dimension of Climate Services
2.4.2. Assessing Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability on a Range of Scales
2.4.2.1. Assessing Impacts
2.4.2.2. Assessing Vulnerability, Risk, and Adaptive Capacity
2.4.3. Climate-related Decisions in Practice
2.5. Linking Adaptation with Mitigation and Sustainable Development
2.5.1. Assessing Synergies and Trade-offs with Mitigation
2.5.2. Linkage with Sustainable Development: Resilience
2.5.3. Transformation: How Do We Make Decisions Involving Transformation?
Frequently Asked Questions
2.1: What constitutes a good (climate) decision?
2.2: Which is the best method for climate change decision making/assessing adaptation?
2.3: Is climate change decision making different from other kinds of decision making?
3.2. Observed Hydrological Changes Due to Climate Change
3.2.1. Detection and Attribution
3.2.2. Precipitation, Evapotranspiration, Soil Moisture, Permafrost, and Glaciers
3.2.6. Soil Erosion and Sediment Load
3.2.7. Extreme Hydrological Events and their Impacts
3.3. Drivers of Change for Freshwater Resources
3.3.2. Non-Climatic Drivers
3.4. Projected Hydrological Changes
3.4.1. Methodological Developments in Hydrological Impact Assessment
3.4.2. E vapotranspiration, Soil Moisture, and Permafrost
3.4.4. Runoff and Streamflow
3.4.7. Soil Erosion and Sediment Load
3.4.8. Extreme Hydrological Events (Floods and Droughts)
3.5. Projected Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Risks
3.5.1. Availability of Water Resources
3.5.2.2. Energy Production
3.5.2.3. Municipal Services
3.5.2.4. Freshwater Ecosystems
3.6. Adaptation and Managing Risks
3.6.2. Dealing with Uncertainty in Future Climate Change
3.6.3. Costs of Adaptation to Climate Change
3.6.4. Adaptation in Practice in the Water Sector
3.7. Linkages with Other Sectors and Services
3.7.1. Impacts of Adaptation in Other Sectors on Freshwater Systems
3.7.2. Climate Change Mitigation and Freshwater Systems
3.7.2.1. Impact of Climate Change Mitigation on Freshwater Systems
3.7.2.2. Impact of Water Management on Climate Change Mitigation
3.8. Research and Data Gaps
Frequently Asked Questions
3.1: How will climate change affect the frequency and severity of floods and droughts?
3.2: How will the availability of water resources be affected by climate change?
3.3: How should water management be modified in the face of climate change?
3.4: Does climate change imply only bad news about water resources?
4 Terrestrial and Inland Water Systems
4.2. A Dynamic and Inclusive View of Ecosystems
4.2.1. Ecosystems, Adaptation, Thresholds, and Tipping Points
4.2.2. Methods and Models Used
4.2.3. Paleoecological Evidence
4.2.4. Multiple Stressors Interacting with Climate Change
4.2.4.1. Land Use and Cover Change
4.2.4.2. Nitrogen Deposition
4.2.4.3. Tropospheric Ozone
4.2.4.4. Rising Carbon Dioxide
4.2.4.5. Diffuse and Direct Radiation
4.2.4.6. Invasive and Alien Species
4.3. Vulnerability of Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems to Climate Change
4.3.1. Changes in the Disturbance Regime
4.3.2. Observed and Projected Change in Ecosystems
4.3.2.2. Primary Productivity
4.3.2.3. Biomass and Carbon Stocks
4.3.2.4. Evapotranspiration and Water Use Efficiency
4.3.2.5. Changes in Species Range, Abundance, and Extinction
4.3.3. Impacts on and Risks for Major Systems
4.3.3.1. Forests and Woodlands
4.3.3.2. Dryland Ecosystems: Savannas, Shrublands, Grasslands, and Deserts
4.3.3.3. Rivers, Lakes, Wetlands, and Peatlands
4.3.3.4. Tundra, Alpine, and Permafrost Systems
4.3.3.5. Highly Human-Modified Systems
4.3.4. Impacts on Key Ecosystem Services
4.3.4.1. Habitat for Biodiversity
4.3.4.2. Timber and Pulp Production
4.3.4.3. Biomass-Derived Energy
4.3.4.4. Pollination, Pest, and Disease Regulation
4.3.4.5. Moderation of Climate Change, Variability, and Extremes
4.4. Adaptation and Its Limits
4.4.1. Autonomous Adaptation by Ecosystems and Wild Organisms
4.4.1.2. Evolutionary and Genetic
4.4.1.3. Migration of Species
4.4.2. Human-Assisted Adaptation
4.4.2.1. Reduction of Non-Climate Stresses and Restoration of Degraded Ecosystems
4.4.2.2. The Size, Location, and Layout of Protected Areas
4.4.2.3. Landscape and Watershed Management
4.4.2.4. Assisted Migration
4.4.2.5. Ex Situ Conservation
4.4.3. Consequences and Costs of Inaction and Benefits of Action
4.4.4. Unintended Consequences of Adaptation and Mitigation
4.5. Emerging Issues and Key Uncertainties
Frequently Asked Questions
4.1: How do land use and land cover changes cause changes in climate?
4.2: What are the non-greenhouse gas effects of rising carbon dioxide on ecosystems?
4.3: Will the number of invasive alien species increase as a result of climate change?
4.4: How does climate change contribute to species extinction?
4.5: Why does it matter if ecosystems are altered by climate change?
4.6: Can ecosystems be managed to help them and people to adapt to climate change?
4.7: What are the economic costs of changes in ecosystems due to climate change?
5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas
5.3.2. Relative Sea Level Rise
5.3.2.1. Global Mean Sea Level
5.3.2.2. Regional Sea Level
5.3.3. Climate-Related Drivers
5.3.3.2. Extreme Sea Levels
5.3.3.4. Sea Surface Temperature
5.3.3.5. Ocean Acidification
5.3.3.6. Freshwater Input
5.3.4. Human-Related Drivers
5.3.4.1. Socioeconomic Development
5.3.4.4. Sediment Delivery
5.4. Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Risks
5.4.2.1. Beaches, Barriers, and Sand Dunes
5.4.2.3. Wetlands and Seagrass Beds
5.4.2.5. Coastal Aquifers
5.4.2.6. Estuaries and Lagoons
5.4.3.1. Human Settlements
5.4.3.2. Industry, Infrastructure, Transport, and Network Industries
5.4.3.3. Fisheries, Aquaculture, and Agriculture
5.4.3.4. Coastal Tourism and Recreation
5.4.4. Summary: Detection and Attribution
5.5. Adaptation and Managing Risks
5.5.2. Adaptation Measures
5.5.3. Adaptation Decision Making and Governance
5.5.3.1. Decision Analysis
5.5.3.2. Institution and Governance Analysis
5.5.4. Implementation and Practice
5.5.4.2. Principles, Guidance, and Experiences
5.5.5. Global Adaptation Costs and Benefits
5.5.6. Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits
5.5.7. Synergies and Trade-Offs between Mitigation and Adaptation
5.5.8. Long-Term Commitment to Sea Level Rise and Adaptation
5.6. Information Gaps, Data Gaps, and Research Needs
Frequently Asked Questions
5.1: How does climate change affect coastal marine ecosystems?
5.2: How is climate change influencing coastal erosion?
5.3: How can coastal communities plan for and adapt to the impacts of climate change, in particular sea level rise?
6.1. Introduction: Point of Departure, Observations, and Projections
6.1.1. Changes in Physical and Chemical Variables
6.1.1.1. Temperature and Salinity
6.1.1.2. Carbon Dioxide-Induced Acidification
6.1.1.4. Light and Nutrients
6.1.2. Historical and Paleo-Records
6.1.2.1. Historical Observations
6.1.2.2. Paleontological Records
6.2. Diversity of Ocean Ecosystems and Their Sensitivities to Climate Change
6.2.1. Pelagic Biomes and Ecosystems
6.2.2. Benthic Habitats and Ecosystems
6.3. Climate Change Impacts from Organism to Ecosystem
6.3.1. Temperature Effects
6.3.1.3. Macroalgae and Seagrasses
6.3.2. Carbon Dioxide Effects
6.3.2.3. Macroalgae and Seagrasses
6.3.3. Life in Hypoxia and Anoxia
6.3.3.3. Animals and Plants
6.3.4. Mixed Layer Depth and Light Shaping Net Primary Production
6.3.5. Concurrent Responses to Multiple Drivers
6.3.5.3. Animals and Plants
6.3.6. Food Web Consequences
6.3.7. Marine Reptiles, Mammals, and Birds
6.3.7.2. Field Observations
6.3.8. Summary and Conclusions
6.4. Human Activities in Marine Ecosystems: Adaptation Benefits and Threats
6.4.1. Ecosystem Services
6.4.1.1. Food from the Sea
6.4.1.2. Other Provisioning Services
6.4.1.3. Climate Regulation and Extreme Events
6.4.1.4. Cultural Services
6.4.1.5. Supporting Services
6.4.2. Management-Related Adaptations and Risks
6.4.2.1. Ecosystem Management
6.4.2.2. Geoengineering Approaches
6.5. Projections of Future Climate Change Impacts through Modeling Approaches
6.5.1. Oceanic Primary Production
6.5.2. Higher Trophic Levels
6.5.3. Ecosystems and Fisheries
6.6. Chapter Conclusions and Key Uncertainties
6.6.1. Key Risks Related to Climate Change: Constraints on Ecosystem Services
6.6.1.1. Redistribution and Constraints on Microbial Functions and Primary Productivity
6.6.1.2. Warming-Induced Species Redistribution, Loss of Biodiversity, and Fisheries Catch Potential
6.6.1.3. Expanding Hypoxia Affecting Marine Resources
6.6.1.4. Constraints on Marine Calcifiers and Associated Fisheries and Aquaculture due to Ocean Acidification
6.6.1.5. Interactions of Climate-Related Drivers Exacerbating Impacts on Organisms, Ecosystems, and Their Services
Frequently Asked Questions
6.1: Why are climate impacts on oceans and their ecosystems so important?
6.2: What is different about the effects of climate change on the oceans compared to the land, and can we predict the consequences?
6.3: Why are some marine organisms affected by ocean acidification?
6.4: What changes in marine ecosystems are likely because of climate change?
7 Food Security and Food Production Systems
7.1. Introduction and Context
7.1.2. The Current State of Food Security
7.2. Observed Impacts, with Detection and Attribution
7.2.1. Food Production Systems
7.2.1.2. Fisheries Production
7.2.1.3. Livestock Production
7.2.2. Food Security and Food Prices
7.3. Assessing Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Risks
7.3.1. Methods and Associated Uncertainties
7.3.1.1. Assessing Impacts
7.3.1.2. Treatment of Adaptation in Impacts Studies
7.3.2. Sensitivity of Food Production to Weather and Climate
7.3.2.1. Cereals and Oilseeds
7.3.2.3. Pests, Weeds, Diseases
7.3.2.4. Fisheries and Aquaculture
7.3.2.5. Food and Fodder Quality and Human Health
7.3.2.6. Pastures and Livestock
7.3.3. Sensitivity of Food Security to Weather and Climate
7.3.3.1. Non-Production Food Security Elements
7.3.3.2. Accessibility, Utilization, and Stability
7.3.4. Sensitivity of Land Use to Weather and Climate
7.4. Projected Integrated Climate Change Impacts
7.4.1. Projected Impacts on Cropping Systems
7.4.2. Projected Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture
7.4.3. Projected Impacts on Livestock
7.4.4. Projected Impacts on Food Prices and Food Security
7.5. Adaptation and Managing Risks in Agriculture and Other Food System Activities
7.5.1. Adaptation Needs and Gaps Based on Assessed Impacts and Vulnerabilities
7.5.1.1. Methods of Treating Impacts in Adaptation Studies—Incremental to Transformational
7.5.1.2. Practical Regional Experiences of Adaptation, Including Lessons Learned
7.5.1.3. Observed and Expected Barriers and Limits to Adaptation
7.5.1.4. Facilitating Adaptation and Avoiding Maladaptation
7.5.2. Food System Case Studies of Adaptation—Examples of Successful and Unsuccessful Adaptation
7.5.3. Key Findings from Adaptations—Confidence Limits, Agreement, and Level of Evidence
7.6. Research and Data Gaps—Food Security as a Cross-Sectoral Activity
Frequently Asked Questions
7.1: What factors determine food security and does low food production necessarily lead to food insecurity?
7.2: How could climate change interact with change in fish stocks and ocean acidification?
7.3: How could adaptation actions enhance food security and nutrition?
8.1.2. Scope of the Chapter
8.1.3. Context: An Urbanizing World
8.1.4. Vulnerability and Resilience
8.1.4.1. Differentials in Risk and Vulnerability within and between Urban Centers
8.1.4.2. Understanding Resilience for Urban Centers in Relation to Climate Change
8.1.5. Conclusions from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and New Issues Raised by this Chapter
8.2. Urbanization Processes, Climate Change Risks, and Impacts
8.2.2. Urbanization: Conditions, Processes, and Systems within Cities
8.2.2.1. Magnitude and Connections to Climate Change
8.2.2.2. Spatial and Temporal Dimensions
8.2.2.3. Urbanization and Ecological Sustainability
8.2.2.4. Regional Differences and Context-Specific Risks
8.2.3. Climate Change and Variability: Primary (Direct) and Secondary (Indirect) Impacts
8.2.3.1. Urban Temperature Variation: Means and Extremes
8.2.3.2. Drought and Water Scarcity: Means and Extremes
8.2.3.3. Coastal Flooding, Sea Level Rise, and Storm Surge
8.2.3.4. Inland Flooding and Hydrological and Geo-Hydrological Hazards at Urban Scale
8.2.3.5. Emerging Human Health, Disease, and Epidemiology Issues in Cities
8.2.4. Urban Sectors: Exposure and Sensitivity
8.2.4.1. Water Supply, Wastewater, and Sanitation
8.2.4.3. Transportation and Telecommunications
8.2.4.4. Built Environment, and Recreation and Heritage Sites
8.2.4.5. Green Infrastructure and Ecosystem Services
8.2.4.6. Health and Social Services
8.2.5. Urban Transition to Resilience and Sustainability
8.3. Adapting Urban Areas
8.3.2. Development Plans and Pathways
8.3.2.1. Adaptation and Development Planning
8.3.2.2. Disaster Risk Reduction and Its Contribution to Climate Change Adaptation
8.3.3. Adapting Key Sectors
8.3.3.1. Adapting the Economic Base of Urban Centers
8.3.3.2. Adapting Food and Biomass for Urban Populations
8.3.3.3. Adapting Housing and Urban Settlements
8.3.3.4. Adapting Urban Water, Storm, and Waste Systems
8.3.3.5. Adapting Electric Power and Energy Systems
8.3.3.6. Adapting Transport and Telecommunications Systems
8.3.3.7. Green Infrastructure and Ecosystem Services within Urban Adaptation
8.3.3.8. Adapting Public Services and Other Public Responses
8.4. Putting Urban Adaptation in Place: Governance, Planning, and Management
8.4.1. Urban Governance and Enabling Frameworks, Conditions, and Tools for Learning
8.4.1.1. Multi-Level Governance and the Unique Role of Urban Governments
8.4.1.2. Mainstreaming Adaptation into Municipal Planning
8.4.1.3. Delivering Co-Benefits
8.4.1.4. Urban Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Practices: Understanding Science, Development, and Policy Interactions
8.4.1.5. Assessment Tools: Risk Screening, Vulnerability Mapping, and Urban Integrated Assessment
8.4.2. Engaging Citizens, Civil Society, the Private Sector, and Other Actors and Partners
8.4.2.1. Engaging Stakeholders in Urban Planning and Building Decision Processes for Learning
8.4.2.2. Supporting Household and Community-Based Adaptation
8.4.2.3. Private Sector Engagement and the Insurance Sector
8.4.2.4. Philanthropic Engagement and Other Civil Society Partnerships
8.4.2.5. University Partnerships and Research Initiatives
8.4.2.6. City Networks and Urban Adaptation Learning Partnerships
8.4.3. Resources for Urban Adaptation and Their Management
8.4.3.1. Domestic Financing: Tapping into National or Subnational Regional Sources of Funding and Support
8.4.3.2. Multilateral Humanitarian and Disaster Management Assistance
8.4.3.3. International Financing and Donor Assistance for Urban Adaptation
8.4.3.4. Institutional Capacity and Leadership, Staffing, and Skill Development
8.4.3.5. Monitoring and Evaluation to Assess Progress
8.5. Annex: Climate Risks for Dar es Salaam, Durban, London, and New York City
Frequently Asked Questions
8.1: Do experiences with disaster risk reduction in urban areas provide useful lessons for climate-change adaptation?
8.2: As cities develop economically, do they become better adapted to climate change?
8.3: Does climate change cause urban problems by driving migration from rural to urban areas?
8.4: Shouldn’t urban adaptation plans wait until there is more certainty about local climate change impacts?
9.1.1. Rationale for the Chapter
9.1.2. Definitions of the Rural
9.2. Findings of Recent Assessments
9.3. Assessing Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Risks
9.3.1. Current and Future Economic, Social, and Land Use Trends in Rural Areas
9.3.3.1. Economic Base and Livelihoods
9.3.3.3. Spatial and Regional Interconnections
9.3.3.4. Second-Order Impacts of Climate Policy
9.3.4. Valuation of Climate Impacts
9.3.4.2. Other Rural Sectors: Water, Fisheries, Livestock, Mining
9.3.4.3. Extreme Weather Events, Sea Level Rise
9.3.4.4. Recreation and Tourism; Forestry
9.3.5. Key Vulnerabilities and Risks
9.3.5.1. Drivers of Vulnerability and Risk
9.4. Adaptation and Managing Risks
9.4.1. Framing Adaptation
9.4.2. Decision Making for Adaptation
9.4.3. Practical Experiences of Adaptation in Rural Areas
9.4.3.3. Forestry and Biodiversity
9.4.4. Limits and Constraints to Rural Adaptation
9.5. Key Conclusions and Research Gaps
Frequently Asked Questions
9.1: What is distinctive about rural areas in the context of climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation?
9.2: What will be the major climate change impacts in rural areas across the world?
9.3: What will be the major ways in which rural people adapt to climate change?
10 Key Economic Sectors and Services
10.1. Introduction and Context
10.2.3. Transport and Transmission of Energy
10.2.4. Macroeconomic Impacts
10.3.1. Water Infrastructure and Economy-Wide Impacts
10.3.2. Municipal and Industrial Water Supply
10.3.3. Wastewater and Urban Stormwater
10.3.4. Inland Navigation
10.3.6. Nature Conservation
10.3.7. Recreation and Tourism
10.3.8. Water Management and Allocation
10.5. Other Primary and Secondary Economic Activities
10.5.1. Primary Economic Activities
10.5.1.1. Crop and Animal Production
10.5.1.2. Forestry and Logging
10.5.1.3. Fisheries and Aquaculture
10.5.1.4. Mining and Quarrying
10.5.2. Secondary Economic Activities
10.5.2.2. Construction and Housing
10.6. Recreation and Tourism
10.6.1. Recreation and Tourism Demand
10.6.2. Recreation and Tourism Supply
10.7. Insurance and Financial Services
10.7.1. Main Results of the Fourth Assessment Report and IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation on Insurance
10.7.2. Fundamentals of Insurance Covering Weather Hazards
10.7.3. Observed and Projected Insured Losses from Weather Hazards
10.7.4. Fundamental Supply-Side Challenges and Sensitivities
10.7.5. Products and Systems Responding to Changes in Weather Risks
10.7.6. Governance, Public-Private Partnerships, and Insurance Market Regulation
10.7.7. Financial Services
10.8. Services Other than Tourism and Insurance
10.8.1. Sectors Other than Health
10.9. Impacts on Markets and Development
10.9.1. Effects of Markets
10.9.2. Aggregate Impacts
10.9.3. Social Cost of Carbon
10.9.4. Effects on Growth
10.9.4.1. The Rate of Economic Growth
10.10. Summary; Research Needs and Priorities
Frequently Asked Questions
10.1: Why are key economic sectors vulnerable to climate change?
10.2: How does climate change impact insurance and financial services?
10.3: Are other economic sectors vulnerable to climate change too?
11 Human Health: Impacts, Adaptation, and Co-Benefits
11.1.1. Present State of Global Health
11.1.2. Developments Since AR4
11.1.3. Non-Climate Health Effects of Climate-Altering Pollutants
11.2. How Climate Change Affects Health
11.3. Vulnerability to Disease and Injury Due to Climate Variability and Climate Change
11.3.1. Geographic Causes of Vulnerability
11.3.2. Current Health Status
11.3.4. Socioeconomic Status
11.3.5. Public Health and Other Infrastructure
11.3.6. Projections for Vulnerability
11.4. Direct Impacts of Climate and Weather on Health
11.4.1. Heat-and Cold-Related Impacts
11.4.1.2. Near-Term Future
11.4.2. Floods and Storms
11.4.2.2. Near-Term Future
11.4.3. Ultraviolet Radiation
11.5. Ecosystem-Mediated Impacts of Climate Change on Health Outcomes
11.5.1. Vector-Borne and Other Infectious Diseases
11.5.1.3. Tick-Borne Diseases
11.5.1.4. Other Vector-Borne Diseases
11.5.1.5. Near-Term Future
11.5.2. Food-and Water-Borne Infections
11.5.2.2. Other Parasites, Bacteria, and Viruses
11.5.2.3. Near-Term Future
11.5.3.1. Long-Term Outdoor Ozone Exposures
11.5.3.2. Acute Air Pollution Episodes
11.5.3.4. Near-Term Future
11.6. Health Impacts Heavily Mediated through Human Institutions
11.6.1.2. Near-Term Future
11.6.2. Occupational Health
11.6.2.1. Heat Strain and Heat Stroke
11.6.2.2. Heat Exhaustion and Work Capacity Loss
11.6.2.3. Other Occupational Health Concerns
11.6.2.4. Near-Term Future
11.6.4. Violence and Conflict
11.7. Adaptation to Protect Health
11.7.1. Improving Basic Public Health and Health Care Services
11.7.2. Health Adaptation Policies and Measures
11.7.3. Early Warning Systems
11.7.4. Role of Other Sectors in Health Adaptation
11.8. Adaptation Limits Under High Levels of Warming
11.8.1. Physiological Limits to Human Heat Tolerance
11.8.2. Limits to Food Production and Human Nutrition
11.8.3. Thermal Tolerance of Disease Vectors
11.8.4. Displacement and Migration Under Extreme Warming
11.8.5. Reliance on Infrastructure
11.9.1. Reduction of Co-Pollutants
11.9.1.1. Outdoor Sources
11.9.1.2. Household Sources
11.9.1.3. Primary Co-Pollutants
11.9.1.4. Secondary Co-Pollutants
11.9.1.5. Case Studies of Co-Benefits of Air Pollution Reductions
11.9.2. Access to Reproductive Health Services
11.9.2.1. Birth and Pregnancy Intervals
11.9.2.2. Maternal Age at Birth
11.10. Key Uncertainties and Knowledge Gaps
Frequently Asked Questions
11.1: How does climate change affect human health?
11.2: Will climate change have benefits for health?
11.3: Who is most affected by climate change?
11.4: What is the most important adaptation strategy to reduce the health impacts of climate change?
11.5: What are health “co-benefits” of climate change mitigation measures?
12.1. Definition and Scope of Human Security
12.2. Economic and Livelihood Dimensions of Human Security at Risk from Climate Change
12.2.1. Climate Change Impacts on Material Aspects of Livelihood Security
12.2.2. Adaptation Actions and Livelihood Dimensions of Human Security
12.3. Cultural Dimensions of Human Security
12.3.1. How Culture Interacts with Climate Impacts and Adaptation
12.3.2. Indigenous Peoples
12.3.3. Local and Traditional Forms of Knowledge
12.4. Migration and Mobility Dimensions of Human Security
12.4.1. Impacts of Climate Change on Displacement, Migration, and Mobility
12.4.1.1. Nature of Evidence on Climate Change and Migration
12.4.1.2. Potential Pathways from Climate Change to Migration
12.4.1.3. Migration Trends and Long-Term Climate Change
12.4.2. Migration as an Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts
12.5. Climate Change and Armed Conflict
12.5.1. Climate Change as a Cause of Conflict
12.5.2. Conflict and Insecurity Associated with Climate Policy Responses
12.5.3. Violent Conflict and Vulnerability to Climate Change
12.5.4. Peace-Building Activities in Promoting Adaptation
12.6. State Integrity and Geopolitical Rivalry
12.6.1. Critical Infrastructure and State Capacity
12.6.2. Geopolitical Issues
Frequently Asked Questions
12.1: What are the principal threats to human security from climate change?
12.2: Can lay knowledge of environmental risks help adaptation to climate change?
12.3: How many people could be displaced as a result of climate change?
12.4: What role does migration play in adaptation to climate change, particularly in vulnerable regions?
12.5: Will climate change cause war between countries?
13 Livelihoods and Poverty
13.1. Scope, Delineations, and Definitions: Livelihoods, Poverty, and Inequality
13.1.1.1. Dynamic Livelihoods and Trajectories
13.1.1.2. Multiple Stressors
13.1.2. Dimensions of Poverty
13.1.2.1. Framing and Measuring Multidimensional Poverty
13.1.2.2. Geographic Distribution and Trends of the World’s Poor
13.1.2.3. Spatial and Temporal Scales of Poverty
13.1.3. Inequality and Marginalization
13.1.4. Interactions between Livelihoods, Poverty, Inequality, and Climate Change
13.2. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Livelihoods and Poverty
13.2.1. Evidence of Observed Climate Change Impacts on Livelihoods and Poverty
13.2.1.1. Impacts on Livelihood Assets and Human Capabilities
13.2.1.2. Impacts on Livelihood Dynamics and Trajectories
13.2.1.3. Impacts on Poverty Dynamics: Transient and Chronic Poverty
13.2.1.4. Poverty Traps and Critical Thresholds
13.2.1.5. Multidimensional Inequality and Vulnerability
13.2.2. Understanding Future Impacts of and Risks from Climate Change on Livelihoods and Poverty
13.2.2.1. Projected Risks and Impacts by Geographic Region
13.2.2.2. Anticipated Impacts on Economic Growth and Agricultural Productivity
13.2.2.3. Implications for Livelihood Assets, Trajectories, and Poverty Dynamics
13.2.2.4. Impacts on Transient and Chronic Poverty, Poverty Traps, and Thresholds
13.3. Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change Responses on Livelihoods and Poverty
13.3.1. Impacts of Mitigation Responses
13.3.1.1. The Clean Development Mechanism
13.3.1.2. Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation
13.3.1.3. Voluntary Carbon Offsets
13.3.1.4. Biofuel Production and Large-Scale Land Acquisitions
13.3.2. Impacts of Adaptation Responses on Poverty and Livelihoods
13.3.2.1. Impacts of Adaptation Responses on Livelihoods and Poverty
13.3.2.2. Insurance Mechanisms for Adaptation
13.4. Implications of Climate Change for Poverty Alleviation Efforts
13.4.1. Lessons from Climate-Development Efforts
13.4.2. Toward Climate-Resilient Development Pathways
13.5. Synthesis and Research Gaps
Frequently Asked Questions
13.1: What are multiple stressors and how do they intersect with inequalities to influence livelihood trajectories?
13.2: How important are climate change-driven impacts on poverty compared to other drivers of poverty?
13.3: Are there unintended negative consequences of climate change policies for people who are poor?
14 Adaptation Needs and Options
14.2.1. Biophysical and Environmental Needs
14.2.3. Institutional Needs
14.2.4. Need for Engagement of the Private Sector
14.2.5. Information, Capacity, and Resource Needs
14.3.1. Structural and Physical Options
14.3.1.1. Engineering and Built Environment
14.3.1.2. Technological Options
14.3.1.3. Ecosystem-Based Adaptation
14.3.1.4. Service Options
14.3.3. Institutional Options
14.3.4. Selecting Adaptation Options
14.4. Adaptation Assessments
14.4.1. Purpose of Assessments
14.4.2. Trends in Assessments
14.4.3. Issues and Tensions in the Use of Assessments
14.4.4. National Assessments
14.5. Measuring Adaptation
14.5.1. What Is to Be Measured?
14.5.2. Established Metrics
14.5.2.1. Vulnerability Metrics
14.5.2.2. Metrics for Resource Allocation
14.5.2.3. Metrics for Monitoring and Evaluation
14.5.3. Validation of Metrics
14.5.4. Assessment of Existing and Proposed Metrics for Adaptation
14.6. Addressing Maladaptation
14.6.1. Causes of Maladaptation
14.6.2. Screening for Maladaptation
14.6.3. Experiences with Maladaptation
14.7. Research and Data Gaps
Frequently Asked Question
14.1: Why do the precise definitions about adaptation activities matter?
15 Adaptation Planning and Implementation
15.2. Status of Adaptation Planning and Implementation
15.2.1. Adaptation Planning at Different Levels
15.2.1.1. Common Recognition and International Mechanisms
15.2.1.2. National Initiatives
15.2.1.3. Subnational and Local Activities
15.2.2. Adaptation Implementation
15.2.3. Financing for Adaptation
15.3. Strategies and Approaches
15.3.1. Diverse Strategies and Mixed-Portfolio Approaches
15.3.2. Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management
15.3.3. Adaptation and Development
15.4. Tools Used for Decision Making, Planning, and Implementation
15.4.1. Decision Support Tools
15.4.2. Tools for Planning
15.4.2.1. Monitoring, Modeling, and Spatially Integrated Tools
15.4.2.2. Communication Tools
15.4.2.3. Early Warning and Information Systems
15.4.3. Technology Development, Transfer, and Diffusion
15.4.4. Insurance and Social Protection
15.5. Governance for Adaptation Planning and Implementation
15.5.1. Institutional Dimensions for Planning and Implementing Adaptation
15.5.1.1. Importance of Institutional Dimensions
15.5.1.2. Institutional Barriers
15.5.1.3. Facilitating More Effective Climate Adaptation Planning and Implementation
15.5.2. Increasing Capabilities
15.6. Research Needs for Maximizing Opportunities
Frequently Asked Questions
15.1: What is the present status of climate change adaptation planning and implementation across the globe?
15.2: What types of approaches are being used in adaptation planning and implementation?
16 Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits
16.1. Introduction and Context
16.1.1. Summary of Relevant AR4 Findings
16.1.2. Summary of Relevant SREX Findings
16.2. A Risk-Based Framework for Assessing Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits
16.3. Adaptation Opportunities and Constraints
16.3.1. Adaptation Opportunities
16.3.1.1. Enabling Conditions for Adaptation
16.3.1.2. Ancillary Benefits of Adaptation
16.3.2. Adaptation Constraints
16.3.2.1. Knowledge, Awareness, and Technology Constraints
16.3.2.2. Physical Constraints
16.3.2.3. Biological Constraints
16.3.2.4. Economic Constraints
16.3.2.5. Financial Constraints
16.3.2.6. Human Resource Constraints
16.3.2.7. Social and Cultural Constraints
16.3.2.8. Governance and Institutional Constraints
16.3.2.9. Constraints and Competing Values
16.3.2.10. Consideration of Cross-Scale Dynamics
16.4. Limits to Adaptation
16.4.1. Hard and Soft Limits
16.4.2. Limits and Transformational Adaptation
16.5. Sectoral and Regional Synthesis
16.5.1. Sectoral Synthesis
16.5.2. Regional Synthesis
16.6. Effects of Mitigation on Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits
16.7. Ethical Dimensions of Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits
16.8. Seizing Opportunities, Overcoming Constraints, and Avoiding Limits
Frequently Asked Questions
16.1: What is the difference between an adaptation barrier, constraint, obstacle, and limit?
16.2: What opportunities are available to facilitate adaptation?
16.3: How does greenhouse gas mitigation influence the risk of exceeding adaptation limits?
17 Economics of Adaptation
17.2. Economic Aspects of Adaptation
17.2.1. Public and Private Actors in Adaptation Implementation
17.2.2. Broad Categorization of Adaptation Strategies
17.2.3. Broad Definition of Benefits and Costs
17.2.3.1. Ancillary Economic Effects of Adaptation Measures and Policies
17.2.3.2. Economic Consideration of Ancillary Effects
17.2.4. Adaptation as a Dynamic Issue
17.2.5. Practical Adaptation Strategy Attractiveness and Feasibility
17.2.6. Adaptation Benefits and Costs, Residual Damage, and Projects
17.2.7. A Broader Setting for Adaptation
17.2.7.1. Adaptation and Mitigation as Competitive or Complementary Investments
17.2.7.2. Adaptation and Development
17.3. Decision Making and Economic Context for Adaptation
17.3.1. Economic Barriers to Adaptation Decision Making
17.3.1.1. Transaction Costs, Information, and Adjustment Costs
17.3.1.2. Market Failures and Missing Markets
17.3.1.3. Behavioral Obstacles to Adaptation
17.3.1.4. Ethics and Distributional Issues
17.3.1.5 Coordination, Government Failures, and Political Economy
17.3.2. Economic Decision Making with Uncertainty
17.3.2.1. Cost-Benefit Analysis and Related Methods
17.3.2.2. Multi-Metric Decision Making for Adaptation
17.3.2.3. Non-Probabilistic Methodologies
17.4.1. Methodological Considerations
17.4.1.1. Data Quality and Quantity
17.4.1.2. Costs and Benefits Are Location-Specific
17.4.1.3. Costs and Benefits Depend on Socioeconomics
17.4.1.4. Discount Rates Matter
17.4.2. Review of Existing Global Estimates: Gaps and Limitations
17.4.3. Consistency between Localized and Global Analyses
17.4.4. Selected Studies on Sectors or Regions
17.5. Economic and Related Instruments to Provide Incentives
17.5.1. Risk Sharing and Risk Transfer, Including Insurance
17.5.2. Payments for Environmental Services
17.5.3. Improved Resource Pricing and Water Markets
17.5.4. Charges, Subsidies, and Taxes
17.5.5. Intellectual Property Rights
17.5.6. Innovation and Research & Development Subsidies
17.5.7. The Role of Behavior
Frequently Asked Questions
17.1: Given the significant uncertainty about the effects of adaptation measures, can economics contribute much to decision making in this area?
17.2: Could economic approaches bias adaptation policy and decisions against the interests of the poor, vulnerable populations, or ecosystems?
17.3: In what ways can economic instruments facilitate adaptation to climate change in developed and developing countries?
18 Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts
18.1.1. Scope and Goals of the Chapter
18.1.2. Summary of Findings from the Fourth Assessment Report
18.2. Methodological Concepts for Detection and Attribution of Impacts of Climate Change
18.2.1. Concepts and Approaches
18.2.1.1 Detecting and Attributing Change in the Earth System
18.2.1.2 Concepts of Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Impacts Used in this Chapter
18.2.2. Challenges to Detection and Attribution
18.3. Detection and Attribution of Observed Climate Change Impacts in Natural Systems
18.3.1. Freshwater Resources
18.3.1.2. The Regional Water Balance
18.3.1.3. Erosion, Landslides, and Avalanches
18.3.2. Terrestrial and Inland Water Systems
18.3.2.2. Productivity and Biomass
18.3.2.3. Species Distributions and Biodiversity
18.3.2.4. Impacts on Major Systems
18.3.3. Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas
18.3.3.1. Shoreline Erosion and Other Coastal Processes
18.3.3.2. Coastal Ecosystems
18.3.3.3. Coastal Settlements and Infrastructure
18.3.4.1. Impacts on Ocean System Properties and Marine Organisms and Ecosystems
18.3.4.2. Observed Climate Change Effects across Ocean Regions
18.4. Detection and Attribution of Observed Climate Change Impacts in Human and Managed Systems
18.4.1. Food Production Systems
18.4.1.1. Agricultural Crops
18.4.2. Economic Impacts, Key Economic Sectors, and Services
18.4.2.1. Economic Growth
18.4.3. Impacts of Extreme Weather Events
18.4.3.1. Economic Losses Due to Extreme Weather Events
18.4.3.2. Detection and Attribution of the Impacts of Single Extreme Weather Events to Climate Change
18.4.6. Livelihoods and Poverty
18.5. Detection and Attribution of Observed Climate Change Impacts across Regions
18.6. Synthesis: Emerging Patterns of Observed Impacts of Climate Change
18.6.2. The Global Pattern of Regional Impacts
18.6.3. Cascading Impacts
18.6.4. Reasons for Concern
18.7. Gaps, Research Needs, and Emerging Issues
Frequently Asked Questions
18.1: Why are detection and attribution of climate impacts important?
18.2: Why is it important to assess impacts of all climate change aspects, and not only impacts of anthropogenic climate change?
18.3: What are the main challenges in detecting climate change impacts?
18.4: What are the main challenges in attributing changes in a system to climate change?
18.5: Is it possible to attribute a single event, such as a disease outbreak, or the extinction of a species, to climate change?
19 Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities
19.1. Purpose, Scope, and Structure of this Chapter
19.1.1. Historical Development of this Chapter
19.1.2. The Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
19.1.3. New Developments in this Chapter
19.2. Framework for Identifying Key Vulnerabilities, Key Risks, and Emergent Risks
19.2.1. Risk and Vulnerability
19.2.2. Criteria for Identifying Key Vulnerabilities and Key Risks
19.2.2.1. Criteria for Identifying Key Vulnerabilities
19.2.2.2. Criteria for Identifying Key Risks
19.2.3. Criteria for Identifying Emergent Risks
19.2.4. Identifying Key and Emergent Risks under Alternative Development Pathways
19.2.5. Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and Emergent Risks
19.3. Emergent Risk: Multiple Interacting Systems and Stresses
19.3.1. Limitations of Previous Approaches Imply Key Risks Overlooked
19.3.2. Examples of Emergent Risks
19.3.2.1. Emergent Risks Arising from the Effects of Degradation of Ecosystem Services by Climate Change
19.3.2.2. Emergent Risk Involving Non-Climate Stressors: The Management of Water, Land, and Energy
19.3.2.3. Emergent Risks Involving Health Effects
19.3.2.4. Spatial Convergence of Multiple Impacts: Areas of Compound Risk
19.4. Emergent Risk: Indirect, Trans-boundary, and Long-Distance Impacts
19.4.1. Crop Production, Prices, and Risk of Increased Food Insecurity
19.4.2. Indirect, Trans-boundary, and Long-Distance Impacts of Adaptation
19.4.2.1. Risks Associated with Human Migration and Displacement
19.4.2.2. Risk of Conflict and Insecurity
19.4.2.3. Risks Associated with Species Range Shifts
19.4.3. Indirect, Trans-boundary, and Long-Distance Impacts of Mitigation Measures
19.5. Newly Assessed Risks
19.5.1. Risks from Large Global Temperature Rise >4°C above Preindustrial Levels
19.5.2. Risks from Ocean Acidification
19.5.3. Risks from Carbon Dioxide Health Effects
19.5.4. Risks from Geoengineering (Solar Radiation Management)
19.6. Key Vulnerabilities, Key Risks, and Reasons for Concern
19.6.1. Key Vulnerabilities
19.6.1.1. Dynamics of Exposure and Vulnerability
19.6.1.2. Differential Vulnerability and Exposure
19.6.1.3. Trends in Exposure and Vulnerability
19.6.1.4. Risk Perception
19.6.2.1. Assessing Key Risks
19.6.2.2. The Role of Adaptation and Alternative Development Pathways
19.6.3. Updating Reasons for Concern
19.6.3.1. Variations in Reasons for Concern across Socioeconomic Pathways
19.6.3.2. Unique and Threatened Systems
19.6.3.3. Extreme Weather Events
19.6.3.4. Distribution of Impacts
19.6.3.5. Global Aggregate Impacts
19.6.3.6. Large-Scale Singular Events: Physical, Ecological, and Social System Thresholds and Irreversible Change
19.7. Assessment of Response Strategies to Manage Risks
19.7.1. Relationship between Adaptation Efforts, Mitigation Efforts, and Residual Impacts
19.7.2. Limits to Mitigation
19.7.3. Avoiding Thresholds, Irreversible Change, and Large-Scale Singularities in the Earth System
19.7.4. Avoiding Tipping Points in Social/Ecological Systems
19.7.5. Limits to Adaptation
Frequently Asked Questions
19.1: Does science provide an answer to the question of how much warming is unacceptable?
19.2: How does climate change interact with and amplify preexisting risks?
19.3: How can climate change impacts on one region cause impacts on other distant areas?
20 Climate-Resilient Pathways: Adaptation, Mitigation, and Sustainable Development
20.2. Climate Change as a Threat to Sustainable Development
20.2.1. Links between Sustainable Development and Climate Change
20.2.1.1. Objectives of Sustainable Development
20.2.1.2. Risks and Threats Posed by Climate Change, Interacting with Other Factors and Driving Forces
20.2.2. Climate-Resilient Pathways
20.2.2.1. Framing Climate-Resilient Pathways
20.2.2.2. Elements of Climate-Resilient Pathways
20.3. Contributions to Resilience through Climate Change Responses
20.3.3. Integrating Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation for Sustainable Risk Management
20.4. Contributions to Resilience through Sustainable Development Strategies and Choices
20.4.1. Resolving Trade-offs between Economic and Environmental Goals
20.4.2. Ensuring Effective Institutions in Developing, Implementing, and Sustaining Resilient Strategies
20.4.3. Enhancing the Range of Choices through Innovation
20.5. Determinants of Resilience in the Face of Serious Threats
20.5.1. Relationships between the Magnitude and Rate of Climate Change and Requirements for Transformational Adaptation
20.5.2. Elements of and Potentials for Transformational Change
20.6. Toward Climate-Resilient Pathways
20.6.1. Alternative Climate-Resilient Pathways
20.6.2. Implications for Current Sustainable Development Strategies and Choices
20.7. Priority Research/Knowledge Gaps
Frequently Asked Questions
20.1: What is a climate-resilient pathway for development?
20.2: What do you mean by “transformational changes”?
20.3: Why are climate-resilient pathways needed for sustainable development?
20.4: Are there things that we can be doing now that will put us on the right track toward climate-resilient pathways?
Climate Change 2014 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects: Volume 1, Global and Sectoral Aspects
：Working Group II Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
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