Scenario Planning in Organizations :How to Create, Use, and Assess Scenarios

Publication subTitle :How to Create, Use, and Assess Scenarios

Author: Chermack Thomas J.  

Publisher: Berrett Koehler‎

Publication year: 2011

E-ISBN: 9781605094144

Subject: F272.1 prediction

Keyword: 世界各国经济概况、经济史、经济地理,经济学

Language: ENG

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Description

With scenario planning, leaders, executives, and decision makers can develop strategies for multiple futures, making their organizations resilient, agile, and capable of adapting to new circumstances at the speed of change. Here Thomas Chermack addresses the method's complexities and, unlike other books, deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying those scenarios and assessing their impact.

This is the most comprehensive guide available to the scenario planning process, offering a thorough discussion of the method's theoretical foundations and detailing a five-phase scenario planning system. Chermack uses a real-world case study to illuminate the entire process—from project preparation to scenario exploration, development, implementation, and project assessment. He provides specific techniques and tools for gathering and analyzing relevant data, structuring and managing projects, and avoiding common pitfalls.

Chapter

2 Theoretical Foundations of Scenario Planning

3 The Performance-Based Scenario System

4 Scenario Case Study

PART TWO: PHASES OF THE PERFORMANCE-BASED SCENARIO SYSTEM

5 Phase 1—Project Preparation: Understanding Purpose and Building Support

6 Phase 2—Scenario Exploration: Breathing In

7 Phase 3—Scenario Development: Digging Deeper

8 Phase 4—Scenario Implementation: Putting Scenarios to Use

9 Phase 5—Project Assessment: Documenting Results

PART THREE: LEADING SCENARIO PROJECTS

10 Managing Scenario Projects

11 Human Perceptions in the Scenario System

12 Initiating Your First Scenario Project

References

Index

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