Cover

Title

Copyright

Contents

List of Figures

List of Tables

Preface

Chapter 1. Statement of the Problem

1.1 Why Do We Need a Mathematical Theory in History?

1.2 Historical Dynamics as a Research Program

1.2.1 Delimiting the Set of Questions

1.2.2 A Focus on Agrarian Polities

1.2.3 The Hierarchical Modeling Approach

1.2.4 Mathematical Framework

1.3 Summary

Chapter 2. Geopolitics

2.1 A Primer of Dynamics

2.1.1 Boundless Growth

2.1.2 Equilibrial Dynamics

2.1.3 Boom/Bust Dynamics and Sustained Oscillations

2.1.4 Implications for Historical Dynamics

2.2 The Collins Theory of Geopolitics

2.2.1 Modeling Size and Distance Effects

2.2.2 Positional Effects

2.2.3 Conflict-legitimacy Dynamics

2.3 Conclusion: Geopolitics as a First-order Process

2.4 Summary

Chapter 3. Collective Solidarity

3.1 Groups in Sociology

3.1.1 Groups as Analytical Units

3.1.2 Evolution of Solidaristic Behaviors

3.1.3 Ethnic Groups and Ethnicity

3.1.4 The Social Scale

3.1.5 Ethnies

3.2 Collective Solidarity and Historical Dynamics

3.2.1 Ibn Khaldun's Theory

3.2.2 Gumilev's Theory

3.2.3 The Modern Context

3.3 Summary

Chapter 4. The Metaethnic Frontier Theory

4.1 Frontiers as Incubators of Group Solidarity

4.1.1 Factors Causing Solidarity Increase

4.1.2 Imperial Boundaries and Metaethnic Fault Lines

4.1.3 Scaling-up Structures

4.1.4 Placing the Metaethnic Frontier Theory in Context

4.2 Mathematical Theory

4.2.1 A Simple Analytical Model

4.2.2 A Spatially Explicit Simulation

4.3 Summary

Chapter 5. An Empirical Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory

5.1 Setting Up the Test

5.1.1 Quantifying Frontiers

5.1.2 Polity Size

5.2 Results

5.2.1 Europe: 0–1000 C.E.

5.2.2 Europe: 1000–1900 C.E.

5.3 Positional Advantage?

5.4 Conclusion: The Making of Europe

5.5 Summary

Chapter 6. Ethnokinetics

6.1 Allegiance Dynamics of Incorporated Populations

6.2 Theory

6.2.1 Nonspatial Models of Assimilation

6.2.2 Spatially Explicit Models

6.3 Empirical Tests

6.3.1 Conversion to Islam

6.3.2 The Rise of Christianity

6.3.3 The Growth of the Mormon Church

6.4 Conclusion: Data Support the Autocatalytic Model

6.5 Summary

Chapter 7. The Demographic-Structural Theory

7.1 Population Dynamics and State Breakdown

7.2 Mathematical Theory

7.2.1 The Basic Demographic-Fiscal Model

7.2.2 Adding Class Structure

7.2.3 Models for Elite Cycles

7.2.4 Models for the Chinese Dynastic Cycle

7.2.5 Summing up Theoretical Insights

7.3 Empirical Applications

7.3.1 Periodic Breakdowns of Early Modern States

7.3.2 The Great Wave

7.3.3 After the Black Death

7.4 Summary

Chapter 8. Secular Cycles in Population Numbers

8.1 Introduction

8.2 "Scale" and "Order" in Human Population Dynamics

8.3 Long-Term Empirical Patterns

8.3.1 Reconstructions of Historical Populations

8.3.2 Archaeological Data

8.4 Population Dynamics and Political Instability

8.5 Summary

Chapter 9. Case Studies

9.1 France

9.1.1 The Frontier Origins

9.1.2 Secular Waves

9.1.3 Summary

9.2 Russia

9.2.1 The Frontier Origins

9.2.2 Secular Waves

9.2.3 Summary

Chapter 10. Conclusion

10.1 Overview of Main Developments

10.1.1 Asabiya and Metaethnic Frontiers

10.1.2 Ethnic Assimilation

10.1.3 Demographic-Structural Theory

10.1.4 Geopolitics

10.2 Combining Different Mechanisms into an Integrated Whole

10.3 Broadening the Focus of Investigation

10.4 Toward Theoretical Cliodynamics?

Appendix A. Mathematical Appendix

A.1 Translating the Hanneman Model into Differential Equations

A.2 The Spatial Simulation of the Frontier Hypothesis

A.3 Demographic-Structural Models with Class Structure

A.4 Models for Elite Cycles

Appendix B. Data Summaries for the Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory

B.1 Brief Descriptions of "Cultural Regions"

B.2 Quantification of Frontiers

B.3 Quantification of Polity Sizes: The First Millennium C.E.

B.4 Quantification of Polity Sizes: The Second Millennium C.E.

Bibliography

Index