Description
This book explores new horizons for the economic analysis of terrorism with an innovative combination of economics and offender profiling. The book is aimed at contributing to law enforcement efforts to pre-empt and pursue the lone wolf terrorist. By taking the economic analysis of terrorism back to its core concepts of opportunities and choices and by insisting that all results be both computable and relevant to the investigative process, the author examines lone wolf terrorism from a unique perspective that yields new insights into the nature of the lone wolf terrorists opportunities and choices to inflict human tragedy. Not content with the task of delineating opportunities and choices, the author shows how the frameworks he has developed may be inverted and deployed in the pursuit of the lone wolf terrorist if efforts to pre-empt the lone wolf terrorist have failed. This book is groundbreaking for both the type of economics analysis it presents and its conscious break with several long-held traditions of terrorism studies. Both academics and law enforcement practitioners will find the authors analysis stimulating, confronting and, above all, applicable to the investigative processes designed to pre-empt or pursue a single violent offender who aims to etch a graphic biography of violence into the public consciousness.
Chapter
Chapter 2 THE (TRADITIONAL) ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF TERRORISM
THE TRADITIONAL APPROACH TO THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF TERRORISM
EHRLICH’S IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTION
INCENTIVES AND THE ADVANTAGES OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
TERRORISM AND TERRORIST BEHAVIOUR: FOUNDATIONS
TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM AND THE EMERGENCE OF THE ‘ECONOMICS OF TERRORISM’
A NOTE ON THE USE OF MONETARY EQUIVALENTS
Chapter 3 THE RISK-REWARD TRADE-OFF AND THE STATISTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE TERRORISM CONTEXT
MEASURING RISK AND REWARD
INJURIES AND FATALITIES AND TERRORISM
MEAN-VARIANCE EXPECTED UTILITY ANALYSIS
NOTES ON SPECIFYING A FUNCTIONAL FORM FOR THE EXPECTED UTILITY FUNCTION
Chapter 4 THE ATTACK METHODS
CATEGORIES OF ATTACK METHODS
ATTACK METHODS AND HUMAN TRAGEDY
Chapter 5 THE CORRELATION STRUCTURE
THE CASE OF PERFECT CORRELATION
THE CONSEQUENCES OF IMPERFECT CORRELATION
IMPOSSIBLE RISK-REWARD TRADE-OFF RELATIONSHIPS
THE HISTORICAL CORRELATION STRUCTURE OF ATTACK METHODS
CORRELATION STRUCTURE AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
Chapter 6 THE LONE WOLF’S OPPORTUNITY SET AND CHOICES: THEORY
THE COMPLETE OPPORTUNITY SET: SINGLE ATTACK METHODS AND COMBINATIONS
THE EFFICIENT OPPORTUNITY SET
MORE ABOUT THE STATISTICAL STRUCTURE
CHOOSING FROM THE OPPORTUNITY SET
Chapter 7 THE LONE WOLF’S OPPORTUNITIES: PRACTICE
COMPUTING THE LONE WOLF’S EFFICIENT SET: THE ‘SPECIALIST’ LONE WOLF
THE OPPORTUNITIES OF THE NON-SPECIALIST LONE WOLVES
THE OPPORTUNITIES AT DIFFERENT DEGREES OF SPECIALISATION
WHEN COMBINATION IS NOT POSSIBLE
Chapter 8 THE LONE WOLF’S CHOICES: PRACTICE
VERY LOW RISK AVERSION: WITH COMBINATION OF ATTACK METHODS POSSIBLE
MODERATE RISK AVERSION: WITH COMBINATION OF ATTACK METHODS POSSIBLE
HIGH RISK AVERSION: WITH COMBINATION OF ATTACK METHODS POSSIBLE
CHOICE WHEN NO COMBINATION IS POSSIBLE
Chapter 9 SUMMARY: THE LONE WOLF’S OPPORTUNITIES AND CHOICES
PART TWO: THE LONE WOLF PROFILE
Chapter 10 OFFENDER PROFILING
HOW DOES PROFILING ‘WORK’?
Chapter 11 THE ORGANISED/DISORGANISED TYPOLOGY AND OFFENDER RISK
ORGANISED/DISORGANISED TYPOLOGY AND THE PROFILING PROCESS
TOWARDS ECONOMIC PROFILING
Chapter 12 INVESTIGATIVE ECONOMICS AND THE ANALYSIS OF LONE WOLF TERRORISM
THE ECONOMIC THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: A SUMMARY
AN ALTERNATIVE OR COMPLEMENT TO THE ORGANISED/DISORGANISED TYPOLOGY
THE MORE RISK AVERSE LONE WOLF TERRORIST AND THE INFERENCES WE MAY DRAW
THE LESS RISK AVERSE LONE WOLF TERRORIST AND THE INFERENCES WE MAY DRAW
THE SERIAL LONE WOLF TERRORIST’S BEHAVIOUR OVER TIME
Chapter 13 METESKY, KACZYNSKI AND FUCHS
Chapter 14 ‘SPREE’ SHOOTERS: COMPLETING THE TYPOLOGY OF AMERICA’S LONE WOLF TERRORISTS
TIME CONCENTRATION AND ‘PLUNGING’
THE SPREE: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHOICES
ARRANGING THE LONE WOLF TERRORISTS IN OUR TYPOLOGY
Chapter 15 THE CONCLUSION
THE ECONOMIC LOGIC OF MEANS AND ENDS
THE NEW HORIZON FOR THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF TERRORISM