Financial Signal Processing and Machine Learning ( Wiley - IEEE )

Publication series :Wiley - IEEE

Author: Ali N. Akansu  

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc‎

Publication year: 2016

E-ISBN: 9781118745649

P-ISBN(Paperback): 9781118745670

P-ISBN(Hardback):  9781118745670

Subject: TP181 automatic reasoning, machine learning

Keyword: 无线电电子学、电信技术

Language: ENG

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Description

The modern financial industry has been required to deal with large and diverse portfolios in a variety of asset classes often with limited market data available. Financial Signal Processing and Machine Learningunifies a number of recent advances made in signal processing and machine learning for the design and management of investment portfolios and financial engineering. This book bridges the gap between these disciplines, offering the latest information on key topics including characterizing statistical dependence and correlation in high dimensions, constructing effective and robust risk measures, and their use in portfolio optimization and rebalancing. The book focuses on signal processing approaches to model return, momentum, and mean reversion, addressing theoretical and implementation aspects. It highlights the connections between portfolio theory, sparse learning and compressed sensing, sparse eigen-portfolios, robust optimization, non-Gaussian data-driven risk measures, graphical models, causal analysis through temporal-causal modeling, and large-scale copula-based approaches.

Chapter

2.2 Portfolio Optimization as an Inverse Problem: The Need for Regularization

2.3 Sparse Portfolios

2.4 Empirical Validation

2.5 Variations on the Theme

2.5.1 Portfolio Rebalancing

2.5.2 Portfolio Replication or Index Tracking

2.5.3 Other Penalties and Portfolio Norms

2.6 Optimal Forecast Combination

Acknowlegments

References

Chapter 3 Mean-Reverting Portfolios

3.1 Introduction

3.1.1 Synthetic Mean-Reverting Baskets

3.1.2 Mean-Reverting Baskets with Sufficient Volatility and Sparsity

3.2 Proxies for Mean Reversion

3.2.1 Related Work and Problem Setting

3.2.2 Predictability

3.2.3 Portmanteau Criterion

3.2.4 Crossing Statistics

3.3 Optimal Baskets

3.3.1 Minimizing Predictability

3.3.2 Minimizing the Portmanteau Statistic

3.3.3 Minimizing the Crossing Statistic

3.4 Semidefinite Relaxations and Sparse Components

3.4.1 A Semidefinite Programming Approach to Basket Estimation

3.4.2 Predictability

3.4.3 Portmanteau

3.4.4 Crossing Stats

3.5 Numerical Experiments

3.5.1 Historical Data

3.5.2 Mean-reverting Basket Estimators

3.5.3 Jurek and Yang (2007) Trading Strategy

3.5.4 Transaction Costs

3.5.5 Experimental Setup

3.5.6 Results

3.6 Conclusion

References

Chapter 4 Temporal Causal Modeling

4.1 Introduction

4.2 TCM

4.2.1 Granger Causality and Temporal Causal Modeling

4.2.2 Grouped Temporal Causal Modeling Method

4.2.3 Synthetic Experiments

4.3 Causal Strength Modeling

4.4 Quantile TCM (Q-TCM)

4.4.1 Modifying Group OMP for Quantile Loss

4.4.2 Experiments

4.5 TCM with Regime Change Identification

4.5.1 Model

4.5.2 Algorithm

4.5.3 Synthetic Experiments

4.5.4 Application: Analyzing Stock Returns

4.6 Conclusions

References

Chapter 5 Explicit Kernel and Sparsity of Eigen Subspace for the AR(1) Process

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Mathematical Definitions

5.2.1 Discrete AR(1) Stochastic Signal Model

5.2.2 Orthogonal Subspace

5.3 Derivation of Explicit KLT Kernel for a Discrete AR(1) Process

5.3.1 A Simple Method for Explicit Solution of a Transcendental Equation

5.3.2 Continuous Process with Exponential Autocorrelation

5.3.3 Eigenanalysis of a Discrete AR(1) Process

5.3.4 Fast Derivation of KLT Kernel for an AR(1) Process

5.4 Sparsity of Eigen Subspace

5.4.1 Overview of Sparsity Methods

5.4.2 pdf-Optimized Midtread Quantizer

5.4.3 Quantization of Eigen Subspace

5.4.4 pdf of Eigenvector

5.4.5 Sparse KLT Method

5.4.6 Sparsity Performance

5.5 Conclusions

References

Chapter 6 Approaches to High-Dimensional Covariance and Precision Matrix Estimations

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Covariance Estimation via Factor Analysis

6.2.1 Known Factors

6.2.2 Unknown Factors

6.2.3 Choosing the Threshold

6.2.4 Asymptotic Results

6.2.5 A Numerical Illustration

6.3 Precision Matrix Estimation and Graphical Models

6.3.1 Column-wise Precision Matrix Estimation

6.3.2 The Need for Tuning-insensitive Procedures

6.3.3 TIGER: A Tuning-insensitive Approach for Optimal Precision Matrix Estimation

6.3.4 Computation

6.3.5 Theoretical Properties of TIGER

6.3.6 Applications to Modeling Stock Returns

6.3.7 Applications to Genomic Network

6.4 Financial Applications

6.4.1 Estimating Risks of Large Portfolios

6.4.2 Large Panel Test of Factor Pricing Models

6.5 Statistical Inference in Panel Data Models

6.5.1 Efficient Estimation in Pure Factor Models

6.5.2 Panel Data Model with Interactive Effects

6.5.3 Numerical Illustrations

6.6 Conclusions

References

Chapter 7 Stochastic Volatility

7.1 Introduction

7.1.1 Options and Implied Volatility

7.1.2 Volatility Modeling

7.2 Asymptotic Regimes and Approximations

7.2.1 Contract Asymptotics

7.2.2 Model Asymptotics

7.2.3 Implied Volatility Asymptotics

7.2.4 Tractable Models

7.2.5 Model Coefficient Polynomial Expansions

7.2.6 Small "Vol of Vol" Expansion

7.2.7 Separation of Timescales Approach

7.2.8 Comparison of the Expansion Schemes

7.3 Merton Problem with Stochastic Volatility: Model Coefficient Polynomial Expansions

7.3.1 Models and Dynamic Programming Equation

7.3.2 Asymptotic Approximation

7.3.3 Power Utility

7.4 Conclusions

Acknowledgements

References

Chapter 8 Statistical Measures of Dependence for Financial Data

8.1 Introduction

8.2 Robust Measures of Correlation and Autocorrelation

8.2.1 Transformations and Rank-Based Methods

8.2.2 Inference

8.2.3 Misspecification Testing

8.3 Multivariate Extensions

8.3.1 Multivariate Volatility

8.3.2 Multivariate Misspecification Testing

8.3.3 Granger Causality

8.3.4 Nonlinear Granger Causality

8.4 Copulas

8.4.1 Fitting Copula Models

8.4.2 Parametric Copulas

8.4.3 Extending beyond Two Random Variables

8.4.4 Software

8.5 Types of Dependence

8.5.1 Positive and Negative Dependence

8.5.2 Tail Dependence

References

Chapter 9 Correlated Poisson Processes and Their Applications in Financial Modeling

9.1 Introduction

9.2 Poisson Processes and Financial Scenarios

9.2.1 Integrated Market-Credit Risk Modeling

9.2.2 Market Risk and Derivatives Pricing

9.2.3 Operational Risk Modeling

9.2.4 Correlation of Operational Events

9.3 Common Shock Model and Randomization of Intensities

9.3.1 Common Shock Model

9.3.2 Randomization of Intensities

9.4 Simulation of Poisson Processes

9.4.1 Forward Simulation

9.4.2 Backward Simulation

9.5 Extreme Joint Distribution

9.5.1 Reduction to Optimization Problem

9.5.2 Monotone Distributions

9.5.3 Computation of the Joint Distribution

9.5.4 On the Frechet-Hoeffding Theorem

9.5.5 Approximation of the Extreme Distributions

9.6 Numerical Results

9.6.1 Examples of the Support

9.6.2 Correlation Boundaries

9.7 Backward Simulation of the Poisson-Wiener Process

9.8 Concluding Remarks

Acknowledgments

A.1 Proof of Lemmas 9.2 and 9.3

A.1.1 Proof of Lemma 9.2

A.1.2 Proof of Lemma 9.3

References

Chapter 10 CVaR Minimizations in Support Vector Machines

10.1 What Is CVaR?

10.1.1 Definition and Interpretations

10.1.2 Basic Properties of CVaR

10.1.3 Minimization of CVaR

10.2 Support Vector Machines

10.2.1 Classification

10.2.2 Regression

10.3 v-SVMs as CVaR Minimizations

10.3.1 v-SVMs as CVaR Minimizations with Homogeneous Loss

10.3.2 v-SVMs as CVaR Minimizations with Nonhomogeneous Loss

10.3.3 Refining the v-Property

10.4 Duality

10.4.1 Binary Classification

10.4.2 Geometric Interpretation of v-SVM

10.4.3 Geometric Interpretation of the Range of v for v-SVC

10.4.4 Regression

10.4.5 One-class Classification and SVDD

10.5 Extensions to Robust Optimization Modelings

10.5.1 Distributionally Robust Formulation

10.5.2 Measurement-wise Robust Formulation

10.6 Literature Review

10.6.1 CVaR as a Risk Measure

10.6.2 From CVaR Minimization to SVM

10.6.3 From SVM to CVaR Minimization

10.6.4 Beyond CVaR

References

Chapter 11 Regression Models in Risk Management

11.1 Introduction

11.2 Error and Deviation Measures

11.3 Risk Envelopes and Risk Identifiers

11.3.1 Examples of Deviation Measures D, Corresponding Risk Envelopes Q, and Sets of Risk Identifiers DQ(X)

11.4 Error Decomposition in Regression

11.5 Least-Squares Linear Regression

11.6 Median Regression

11.7 Quantile Regression and Mixed Quantile Regression

11.8 Special Types of Linear Regression

11.9 Robust Regression

References, Further Reading, and Bibliography

Index

EULA

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