Chapter
1. There Has Been a Series of Serious Strategic Intelligence Failures
2. These Failures Each Have Particular Causes, but the Numerous Individual Problems Are Interrelated
3. The Intelligence Community Still Relies on the Same Collection Paradigm Created for “Denied Areas”
4. Analytic Methods Also Have Not Been Updated from Those Used to Fight the Cold War
5. The Intelligence Community Presently Lacks Many of the Scientific Community's Self-Correcting Features
6. Intelligence Analysis Remains a “Craft Culture,” Operating within a Guild Structure and Relying on an Apprenticeship Model That It Cannot Sustain15
1. The Dysfunctional Practices and Processes That Have Evolved within the Culture of Intelligence Analysis Go Well Beyond the Classic Impediments Highlighted by Richards Heuer in the Psychology of Intelligence Analysis16
2. More Corrosively, the Individual Impediments Form Interrelated, Tightly-Linked, Amplifying Networks That Result in Extremely Dysfunctional Analytic Pathologies and Pervasive Failure
3. The New Problems and Circumstances Call for Fundamentally Different Approaches in Both Collection and Analysis, as Well as in the Processing and Dissemination Practices and Procedures That Support Them
4. Accurate Diagnosis of the Root Causes of Problems “Inside the Boxes” Is Required; Otherwise Remedies Will Be Merely “Band-Aids”
5. The Intelligence Community Must Bring More Perspectives to Bear on Its Work and Create More Effective “Proof” and Validation Methods in Constructing Its Knowledge
6. Whatever the Details of Structures or Authorities, the New Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Leadership Must Assure That the Corrective Measures Are Implemented within Each Agency and Across the Community
Chapter 1 MAKING SENSE OF THE US INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY
A COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM
RELATING STRUCTURE AND PROCESS
The National Security Community
The Intelligence Community
The Individual Analytic Units and Organizations
DIFFERENTIATING INTELLIGENCE ROLES
Support to Military Operations (SMO)
Support to Policy Operations (SPO)
Warning and Estimative Intelligence (WEI)
IMPLICATIONS OF DIFFERENTIATING ROLES
Chapter 2 ASSESSING CRITICAL ANALYTICAL SHORTFALLS
MISUNDERSTANDING ANALYTIC PROCESSES
THE PROBLEM OF THE WRONG PUZZLE
THE MYTH OF “SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGY”
THE FLAWS OF A “TRADECRAFT” CULTURE
Chapter 3 AN INVENTORY OF ANALYTIC PATHOLOGIES
AN INVENTORY OF ANALYTIC PATHOLOGIES
First Is the Inefficiency of the “Account” Structure
The Second Element Is the Intelligence Community’s Strong Cultural Orientation Towards an “Evidence-Based Scientism”
3. The Tyranny of Current Intelligence
4. Overemphasis on Production
5. Over-Reliance on Previous Judgments
6. The Neglect of Research
7. The Neglect of Anticipatory Intelligence
8. The Loss of “Keystone Species” and “Intellectual Middleware”
9. Failure to Develop Analytic Tools and Methods for Validation
10. The Hindrances of the Security Mindset
Chapter 4 A PROGRAM FOR TRANSFORMING ANALYSIS
DEVELOPING A NEW CONCEPT FOR ANALYSIS
PRINCIPLES FOR A NEW PARADIGM
GETTING STARTED: SIX FUNDAMENTALS
A REVAMPED ANALYTIC PROCESS
RECRUITING, TRAINING, EDUCATING, AND DEVELOPING PROFESSIONALS
USER-COMMUNITY INTERACTIONS
“PROOF,” VALIDATION, AND REVIEW
After-Action Reports and Lessons-Learned Processes
APPENDIX: THE ANALYTIC PATHOLOGIES METHODOLOGY
Curing Analytic Pathologies: Pathways to Improved Intelligence Analysis
( Intelligence and Counterintelligence Studies )
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