Chapter
Chapter 1: Asking the Right Questions About Terrorism
Conflating Terrorism and Insurgency
Are We as Safe as We Are Because of Security Measures?
Chapter 2: Evaluating Aviation Security
Aviation Security Costs in the United States
Other Federal Government Costs
Total Costs for Aviation Security
Evaluating Aviation Security: Three Analytic Techniques
Chapter 3: Layers of Aviation Security: Examining Their Individual Contribution to Risk Reduction
Laying Out the Layers of Security
Assessing and Evaluating the Layers of Security
Stage 1. Terrorists Are Deterred From Attempting an Attack
Stage 2. Terrorists Attempt an Attack, but Are Prevented From Boarding
Stage 3. Terrorists Succeed in Boarding, but Fail to Bring Down or Hijack the Airliner
Stage 4. Hijackers Succeed in Taking Over the Airliner, but Fail to Crash it into Their Target
Calculation of Overall Risk Reduction
Evaluating the Deterrence and Disruption Estimates: Erring on the Low Side
Substitution Effects: Interactions and Interdependencies Among the Layers
Other Terrorist Threats to Aviation
Adaptive Behavior by Terrorists
Security Measures in Place in the US From 1973 to 2001
Security Measures in Place in the US Before 1973
Chapter 4: Reducing Costs Without Reducing Security: Comparing the Value of Individual Layers
Adding a Security Layer: Installed Physical Secondary Barriers
Comparing the Layers: Three Approaches
The Cost of the Security Measure
The Losses Sustained in a Successful Attack
The Risk Reduction Furnished by the Security Measure
The Probability of an Otherwise-Successful Terrorist Attack Absent All Security Measures
The Benefit-to-Cost Ratio
Evaluating the Comparative Effectiveness of FAMS, FFDO, and IPSB
Comparing Reductions in Risk
Comparing Cost-Effectiveness: Break-Even Analysis and Benefit-to-Cost Ratio
Federal Air Marshal Service
Installed Physical Secondary Barriers
Flight Deck Resistance Including the Federal Flight Deck Officer Program
Policy Mix: Include IPSB, Double the Budget for FFDOs, Reduce FAMS by 75%
Assessing the Risk Reduction and the Cost-Effectiveness of Other Security Measures
Passenger and Cabin Crew Resistance
JTTF (Including FBI and Police)
No-Fly List and Passenger Pre-Screening
Checkpoint/TSOs and Travel Document Checkers
Behavior Detection Officers
Evaluation of Enhanced Aviation Security Measures Put in Place After 2001
Assessing the Layers: A Cost-Effectiveness Summary
Chapter 5: Improving Checkpoint Efficiency: Evaluating PreCheck
The Risk Reduction Effects of Adding PreCheck
PreCheck With Random Exclusion or Managed Inclusion
The Economic Benefits of PreCheck
Airport Checkpoint Screening Costs: Comparisons With the United States
Conclusions and Extensions
Chapter 6: Policing and Protecting Airports
Assessing the Risk, Consequences, and Likelihood of Terrorist Attacks on Airports
The Losses Sustained in a Terrorist Attack
The Likelihood That Terrorists Could Pull Off a Successful Attack
Evaluating Counterterrorism Policing at Airports
The Costs and Co-benefits of Airport Policing
Evaluating Enhanced Security and Protective Measures at Airport Terminals
The Enhanced Security Measures and the Degree to Which They Reduce Risk
Costs of the Enhanced Security Measures
Chapter 7: Responsible Counterterrorism Policymaking
Probability Neglect and Acceptable Risk
Focusing on Worst-Case Scenarios
Adding, Rather Than Multiplying, the Probabilities
Assessing Relative, Rather Than Absolute, Risk
Inflating the Importance of Potential Terrorist Targets
Inflating Terrorist Capacities
Failure to Systematically Evaluate Counterterrorism Programs
Excessive Concern About Politics, Job Security, Budget Preservation: Are Overreaction and Excessive Spending Required?
Responsible Counterterrorism Policymaking
Appendix A: Aviation Security Costs in Australia and Elsewhere
Aviation Security Costs in Australia
Office of Transport Security
Air Security Officers (ASOs)
Australian Federal Police
Other Federal Government Agencies
Airport Screening and Security Costs
Free Airline Seats to ASOs
Total Australian Expenditures
Evaluating Aviation Security in Australia: Cost-Benefit Assessment
Aviation Security Costs in Other Countries
Appendix B: Reliability Analysis of Overall System of Aviation Security
Existing Security Measures
Addition of Installed Physical Secondary Barriers (IPSBs)
Appendix C: Sensitivity Analyses for FAMS, FFDOs, and BDOs
Are We Safe Enough?
：Measuring and Assessing Aviation Security
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