A Monetary History of Italy ( Studies in Macroeconomic History )

Publication series :Studies in Macroeconomic History

Author: Michele Fratianni; Franco Spinelli; Anna J. Schwartz  

Publisher: Cambridge University Press‎

Publication year: 1997

E-ISBN: 9780511883149

P-ISBN(Paperback): 9780521443159

Subject: F015 宏观经济学

Keyword: 宏观经济学

Language: ENG

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A Monetary History of Italy

Description

This volume deals with the monetary history of Italy from its independence in 1861 to 1992. It provides the first complete analysis of a country which has experienced diverse and often dramatic monetary conditions. The authors interpret Italian monetary history through the looking glass of a model which, while monetarist in flavour, is open to other interpretations. A key theme is that public finance is at the root of the (relatively) high Italian inflation rates. The authors argue that there is a strong relationship between the government budget deficit and monetary policy, and that the monetary authorities are too dependent on government. The book contributes in a novel way not only to the monetary debate, but also to fiscal and institutional questions. It combines economic theory, statistical data and history in an accessible way which should prove useful to both economic historians and monetary economists.

Chapter

International comparisons

The variables of the exchange equation

Public finance

Appendix The construction of the monetary base

Treasury, Cassa DD.PP and Government Corporations

The Bank of Italy and the Italian Exchange Office

The monetary base

2 Money growth and its determinants

Introduction

Decomposition of the money stock

Interaction between the multiplier and the monetary base

The monetary base under fixed exchange rates

Seigniorage and the inflation tax

Fiscal dominance

Conclusions

Data appendix The monetary statistics of Italy: 1861-1991

3 From political unification to 1913: creation of a new currency, multiplicity of banks of issue, banking legislations, monetary systems

Introduction

Banks of issue in the Italian states prior to political unification

Banca Nazionale degli Stati Sardi (or Kingdom of Sardinia)

Banca Nazionale Toscana

Banca Romana (or Banca dello Stato Pontificio)

Banco di Napoli

Banco di Sicilia

Stabilimento Mercantile di Venezia (or Veneto)

Banca degli Stati Parmensi

Banca Toscana di Credito per le Industrie ed i Commerci d'Italia

Many or only one bank of issue in the new state?

The choice of a monetary system for the new state

The relationship with the Latin Monetary Union

The years 1861-1913: a quantitative overview

Monetary base, money, output and prices from 1861 to 1896

Exit from the gold standard

The external constraint and interest rate policy

Fiscal policy and the premium for country risk

Banks in difficulty and proclamation of inconvertibility

Suspension of convertibility and BN

The ratio k

Outflow of metal and illegal currency

The discount rate after the proclamation of inconvertibility

The 1868 law

The 1874 law

Fiscal discipline and the return to convertibility in 1880-1883

The 1880 bill

International borrowing in 1881 and return to convertibility

Gresham's law, monetary disequilibrium and monetary control inconsistencies

Banking crises

More on the inadequacy of interest rate policy

Ethical-political crisis and Banca Romana s failure

The 1893 law, establishment of the Bank of Italy and the new exit from the gold standard 44

Deficiencies in the law and market reaction

More on the nature of the crisis: money in the decade 1884-1894

Monetary base, money, production and prices from 1897 to 1913

Genesis of a monetary policy model

Conclusions

4 The First World War: inflation and stabilisation

Introduction

The First World War in a long-run perspective

The fiscal shock and problems in financing government deficits

The placement of public debt in the domestic market and abroad

The monetary shock: legislation and quantitative and qualitative issues

The k ratio and the accumulation of inflationary potential

Price and exchange-rate controls

The end of the war: unexpected inflation and social conflict

The problem of bread price and the end of the crisis

The Banca d'ltalia's Annual Reports

A decade of nominal and real exchange rates and the Phillips curve

Conclusions

5 The 1920s and 1930s: foreign exchange policy and industrial and financial restructuring

Introduction

The three stages of the Italian economy and a comparison with the USA and UK

Prices and the exchange rate from 1922 to 1928

The resumption of inflation and of exchange-rate depreciation

The stabilisation programme: expectations and actions

The strong lira policy and industrial restructuring

Decisions taken after the Pesaro speech

A continuous revaluation of the lira?

Domestic prices and the cost of stabilisation

The deterioration of the 1930s

International reserves

Collapse of monetary control

Devaluation

The 1936 banking legislation

Conclusions

6 The Second World War and the 1947 stabilisation

Introduction

The Second World War from a longer-term perspective

The collapse of industrial output

Fiscal shock and government deficit financing

The direct capital circuit

The indirect capital circuit

The k ratio and the inflationary potential

Inflation and the lira exchange rate in 1943

1944 and the end of the war: the stabilisation debate

Inflation slowdown and resurgence -fiscal and monetary policies

Partial liberalisations and the two-tier foreign exchange market

The 1947 stabilisation

The issues

Surge in velocity and authorities' responsibilities

Einaudi and inflation

Was the stabilisation really expected?

Was it really a strong squeeze?

Stabilisation costs

Foreign criticism

The reconstitution of real money balances

The lira from 1947 to 1949

Bank of Italy, banks and politics

Conclusions

7 The fifties and sixties

Introduction

The 1950s-1960s versus the 1970s

The sub-period 1950-1969: a quantitative overview

The fifties: trade normalisation and monetary stability

Progress towards freer trade

Monetary stability

The road to convertibility

The money supply process in an open economy

Monetary policy and the balance-of-payments constraint

October 1963-end of 1965

1966-1969

Conclusions

8 The seventies

Introduction

The seventies versus the fifties and the sixties

High inflation as the true Italian peculiarity

Government deficits, their financing and total domestic credit

The TDC model

TDC's endogeneity and Bis subservience to fiscal authorities

Interest rates and monetary aggregates

The 'massimale' and portfolio constraints

Italy's monetary and financial isolation

Business cycles, the external constraint and monetary policy

Determinants of the current account

Pressures on the lira in the exchange market

Monetary and business cycles

Conclusions

9 Italy in the eighties: towards central bank independence

The European Monetary System

A more independent and conservative Banca d'ltalia

Paolo Baffi

The 'divorce'

Freeing banks from quantitative constraints

A more conservative BI

Monetary policy strategy

Summary

A quantitative glance at the period

Monetary adjustment

The trade-off between inflation and output

Fiscal correction

Postscript

Conclusions

10 Conclusions

First theme: What is money?

Second theme: Regulation of money and credit

Third theme: Causes of inflation

Fourth theme: Trade-offs between inflation and output?

Fifth theme: Behaviour of the monetary authorities

Sixth theme: Fiscal dominance

Bibliography

Index of authors

Subject Index

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