Cover

Title

Copyright

Contents

List of figures

List of tables

Acknowledgments

1 Introduction

Diffusion and rationality

Is context less important than individual-level factors?

Metaphors and theories

Methodology

Vade mecum

Conclusion

2 Modes of context

Introduction

Context as Cause

Context as barrier

Context as changing meaning

The zero degree of context

Conclusion

3 Context as changing meaning

Introduction

Contextual definitions, data, and indicators

Contextual models and theories

Context and control variables

Conclusion

4 Contextual indicators

Introduction

The indicators

Non-contextual indicators

Military expenditures divided by gross national product (ME/GNP)

Military expenditures divided by government budget (ME/GB)

Military personnel divided by total population (MP/TP)

Contextual indicators

Regression strategy

Stratified epochs

System percentage

Summary

Comparing the indicators

A structural test

Conclusion

Postscript for baseball fans

5 Rational actor and diffusion models

Introduction

Diffusion and rational actor models

Mixed models

Contextual analysis

6 Barrier models of context

Introduction

The barrier model

The nature of the barrier

Pressure on the barrier

The strong barrier period

Critical mass and barrier breakdown

Summary

Learning about barriers

A formal model

Conclusion

7 Oil nationalization, 1918-1980 (with Nathan Adams)

Introduction

The barrier

Pressure from below

The barrier crumbles

New players and changing markets

The shift from a buyer's to a seller's market

Old technology

The nationalization of oil

Jumping on the bandwagon

A model of oil nationalization

Results

Conclusion

8 Eastern Europe, 1945-1989 (with Jon Solem)

Introduction

Building the Iron Curtain

The first test: nationalist deviation

Destalinization: 1953-1956

After 1956

Prelude to 1968

The Prague Spring

Results of 1968: The Prague Resistance

After 1968: normalization

Prelude to 1989: Solidarity

The beginning of the end

Conclusion

9 Historical contexts

Introduction

"Historical theories"

What is the "same" behavior?

Approaches to historical stability or, explaining no change

Conflict addiction

Habit, SOPs, and incrementalism

Preferences and norms

Unchanging environments: equilibrium explanations and structuralism

Conclusion

10 Enduring rivalries, or plus ca change ...

Introduction

The concept of enduring rivalries

Operational definitions

Enduring rivalries as a background context

The empirical importance of the concept of enduring rivalries

Methodological implications

Enduring rivalries and context

11 The context of international norms

Introduction

Four elements for a theory of international norms

A typology of international norms

Summary

Modes of context and norms

Norms as effects

Norms as causes

Norms as barriers

The methodology of decentralized norms

Internal versus external approaches

Norms and self-interest

Measuring a decentralized norm

Conclusion

Postscript: normative realism

12 The norm of decolonization

Introduction

The historical development of the norm

A behavioral measure of the norm

The impact of the decolonization norm

Conclusion

13 Postface: interacting contexts and explaining contexts

References

Index