Cover

Half-title

Title

Copyright

Contents

List of Figures

List of Tables

Foreword

Preface

I Introduction and Reader's Guide

Part I Theory

2 Rationaldecision-making

2.1 the Difficulties of Decision-making

2.2 the Meaning of Rationality

2.3 the Rise of Operational Research

2.4 Requirements for a Satisfactory Rationality for Decisionmaking

3 Decisiontheory

3.1 Conflicting Objectives

3.1.1 Utility and Value

3.1.2 Value Functions

3.1.2.1 Problem Formulation

3.1.2.2 Value Functions: Definition and Alternatives

3.1.2.3 Existence of the Value Function

3.1.2.4 Additive Value Functions

3.1.3 Summary

Exercises for 3.1

3.2 Uncertainty

3.2.1 Descriptions of Uncertainty

3.2.2 Theoretical Background to Subjective Probability

3.2.3 Using Probabilities

3.3 Risk Preference

3.3.1 Utility Theory

3.3.2 Comparing Risky Options

3.3.3 Implications of Utility Theory

3.3.4 Criticisms of Utility Theory

3.3.5 the Value of Information

Exercises for 3.3

3.4 Risk Preference and Conflicting Objectives

3.4.1 Introduction

3.4.2 Keeney's Approach

3.4.3 the Stanford Approach

3.4.4 Comments

Exercises for 3.4

3.5 Other Normative Approaches

3.5.1 Introduction

3.5.2 Cost-benefit Analysis

3.5.3 the Multi-criterion Decision-making Movement

3.5.4 Social Judgment Theory

3.5.5 Outranking

3.5.6 the Analytic Hierarchy Process

3.5.7 Conclusions

4 the Psychology of Decision-making

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Uncertainty

4.2.1 Is Man an Intuitive Statistician?

4.2.2 Heuristics and Biases in Judgments of Probability

4.2.3 Calibration

4.3 Expected Utility

4.4 Judgment

4.5 Implications for Decision Synthesis

Exercise for 4

5 Decision Analysis in Organizations

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Organizational Theory and Decision-making

5.3 Normative Theories for Group Decision-making

5.3.1 Collective Choice

5.3.2 Game Theory

5.4 Using Decision Analysis in Organizations

5.4.1 the Individual in the Organization

5.4.2 Designing Programmed Decisions

5.4.3 Management Decisions in a Participative Setting

5.4.4 Public Policy Analysis

5.4.5 Negotiations

5.4.6 Conclusions

Part Ii

6 Analytic Strategy

6.1 Introduction

6.2 the Modeling Strategy

6.2.1 Background and Definition

6.2.2 Modeling Application to the Mexican Electricalsystem

6.2.3 Modeling Application to Xerox Consumables

6.2.4 Requirements for Success in the Modeling Strategy

6.3 the Introspecting Strategy

6.3.1 Background and Definition

6.3.2 Introspecting Strategy for Electricalenergy Production in Wisconsin

6.3.3 Introspecting Strategy for Transmission Conductorselection

6.3.4 Requirements for Success with the Introspectingstrategy

6.4 the Rating Strategy

6.4.1 Background and Definition

6.4.2 Rating Application to a Research Program

6.4.3 Requirements for Success in the Rating Strategy

6.5 the Conferencing Strategy

6.5.1 Background and Definition

6.5.2 Conferencing Strategy for Tanker Safety

6.5.3 Conferencing Strategy for Factory Location

6.5.4 Requirements for Success with the Conferencingstrategy

6.6 the Developing Strategy

6.6.1 Background and Definition

6.6.2 Developing Strategy for Resource Allocation

6.6.3 Requirements for Success with the Developingstrategy

6.7 Allocate and Negotiate Decision Modes

6.8 Summary

7 Analytic Tactics

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Problem-and Model-structuring

7.2.1 Problem-structuring Aids

7.2.1.1 the Rational Manager - Kepner and Tregoe(1981)

7.2.1.2 Van Gundy's Shopping List

7.2.1.3 Report Card

7.2.2 Model-structuring Aids

7.2.2.1 Influence Diagrams

7.2.2.2 Cognitive Mapping

7.2.3 How to Get Started

7.2.4 Requisite Decision-modeling

7.3 Iterative Analysis

7.3.1 Four Types of Iterative Analysis

7.3.2 How Much Analysis Is Enough?

Exercises for 7.2

7.4 Probability Elicitation

7.4.1 Research Findings

7.4.2 a Recommended Elicitation Process

7.4.3 Discretizing Continuous Distributions

Exercise for 7.4

7.5 Value and Utility Elicitation 190

7.5.1 Research

7.5.2 Definitions

7.5.3 Assessing Additive Value Functions

7.5.4 Assessing Additive Value Weights

7.5.5 Constructing Hierarchical Additive Value Weights

7.5.6 Assessing Utility Functions

Exercises for 7.5

7.6 Sensitivity Analysis

Exercise for 7.6

8 Applications

8.1 General Introduction

8.2 Problem-structuring

8.2.1 Introduction

8.2.2 Hertz and Thomas (1983) — New Product Andfacilities Planning

8.2.3 Dyer and Miles (1976) - Selection of Trajectories

8.3 Model-structuring

8.3.1 Introduction

8.3.2 North and Merkhofer (1976) - Analyzing Emissioncontrol Strategies

8.3.3 Flyback and Keeney (1983)- Constructing an Index of Trauma Severity

8.4 Iterative Analysis

8.4.1 Introduction

8.4.2 Spetzler and Zamora (1983) - Facilities Investmentand Expansion

8.4.3 Buede and Choisser (1984) — System Design

8.5 Probability Assessment

8.5.1 Introduction

8.5.2 Howard, Matheson and North (1972) - Hurricaneseeding

8.5.3 North and Stengel (1982) - Program Choices in Magneticfusion

8.6 Value Assessment

8.6.1 Introduction

8.6.2 Dyer and Lund (1982) — Merchandizing Package

8.6.3 Kuskey, Waslov and Buede (1981) - Marine Corps'spom Development

8.7 Sensitivity Analysis

8.7.1 Introduction

8.7.2 Macartney, Douglas and Spiegelhalter (1984) -cardiac Catheterization

8.7.3 Kirkwood (1982) - Nuclear Power Plant Site Selection

9 Decision Synthesis Appraised

9.1 the Validation of Decision Analysis

9.2 Research Directions

9.2.1 Research on How Decisions Are Made

9.2.2 Research on the Foundations of Decision Theory

9.2.3 Research on Problems of Applying Decision Theory

9.2.4 Research into Methods for Communicating Analyses

9.2.5 Implications for Decision Synthesis

9.3 the Ethics of Decision Analysis

References

Index

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