CURRENT ISSUES IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE: METHODOLOGIES AND DEVELOPMENT IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY

CURRENT ISSUES IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE: METHODOLOGIES AND DEVELOPMENT IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Contents

Acknowledgments

Preface

Select References

List of Contributors (In Alphabetical Order)

Part I: Current Scenarios of Global Trade and the Emerging Issues

Chapter 1: The Global Recession and Developing Economies in Asia: Evidence from China and India

Abstract

Introduction

The Global Crisis : Implications for Developed and Developing Countries

The Crisis and Developed Economies

The Crisis and Developing Countries

Analytical Framework

International Trade Flows and the Current Account Balance

Capital Flows and Their Implications

India and China: Dimensions of Engagement with the World Economy

India and China : Findings from a Growth

Decomposition Exercise

Conclusion

References

Chapter 2: Development of Asia’s Industrial Network and Cross-Pacific Trade

Abstract

Introduction: China in the Sequential Industrialization

of Asia

Development of Regional Production Network

and Trade Pattern

Changes in the U.S. Import Market Structure

Asia’s Adjustment to the US Market

Development of Production Network and Trade in Values

China in the Chain of Asian Countries’ Industrialization Link

China’s Catch-Up and Value Added Embedded in Cross-Pacific Trade

Conclusion

Références

Appendix: Value Added Embodied in Exports

Chapter 3: China-Africa’s Trade Patterns and Potentials for Technology Upgrading in Africa

Abstract

Introduction

China-Africa’s Trade: Descriptive and Data

Factors Intensity Analysis

Recycled Comparative Advantage Analysis

Conclusion

References

Appendix

Index Terms

Chapter 4: Structural Breaks and the Effect of Exchange Rate on India’s Exports

Abstract

Introduction and Overview

Data and Methodology

The Exchange Rate Series

Exchange Rates and Exports: The Casual Link

Methodology

Analysis of Results

Conclusion

Appendix:

Analysis without Structural Breaks

Acknowledgments

References

Chapter 5: Complementarities of India–Russia Economic Relations: Present Status and Future Prospects

Abstract

Introduction

Complementarities of Economic Relationship between India and Russia

Aggregate Trend Analysis

Trade Engagement in HT Products between India and Russia

FDI channel of Trade

State of Logistics Networks

Complementarities in Technology and Skills between India and Russia

Complementarities and Potentials in Merchandise Trade and Economic Benefits

Concluding Remarks

Annex 1. GTAP Model

References

Part II: Analytical Frameworks to Model Selective Issues

Chapter 6: International Trade, Gravity Equations and Tourism: An Application for Intra-Latin American Trade Flows

Abstract

Introduction

The HMR Approach

Consumption

Production

International Trade

Firm Selection into the Export Market

Adding Tourism to the HMR Approach

An Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Appendix

References

Chapter 7: A Factor Endowment Explanation for China’s Emergence As an International Trading Power: Calibrating the Dornbusch-Fischer-Samuelson Model for China’s Trade, 1968-2008

Abstract

Introduction

A Dornbusch-Fisher-Samuelson Model Primer

Establishing an Initial Equilibrium

Examples of Comparative Statics Using the DFS Model

Possible Outcomes and (In)Consistencies within the DFS Framework

Data/Variable Construction and Results

from Calibrating the DFS Model

Variable Construction

Calibration Results, by Cohort

Trade AND U.S. Manufacturing

Employment and Wages

The Econometric Model

Econometric Results

Conclusion

Appendix a: Country Listing, by Income Classification

Appendix B: CIC Industry Classifications

References

Chapter 8: Trade Reform, Environment and Intermediation: Implication for Health Standard

Abstract

1. Introduction

2. The Model

3. Effects of Tariff Reform

Conclusion

Acknowledgment

Refrences

Chapter 9: Constructing Trade Barrier Index for Selected Countries of South Asia

Abstract

Introduction

Data and Methodology

Analysis of Results

Validation of Results

Relationship of Index Values and Changes in Trade Barriers

Key Take-Away

Annex 1. Detailed List of Parameters

Annex 2. Methodology—Principal Components Analysis

Elimination of Scale Bias

Assigning Weights Objectively Using Factor Analytic Model

Method Outlined

References

Part III: Methodologies and Policy Applications

Chapter 10: CGE Modelling As a Framework for Absorbing Specialist Information: Linking an Energy Model and a CGE Model to Analyse U.S. Energy Policies

Abstract

1. Introduction

1.1. What is CGE Modelling?

1.2. The USAGE Model

1.3. The NEMS Model

2. NEMS Results

3. Changes to USAGE to Absorb NEMS Results

3.1. New Variables

3.2. Closure Changes

3.3. Other Changes to the USAGE Model

4. The USAGE Baseline

5. The USAGE Policy Run: Effects of the NEMS Policy

5.1. Macro Effects

5.2. Industry Effects

Conclusion

References

Chapter 11: When Modellers Behave Like Lawyers: Have We Lost the Plot?

Abstract

1. Introduction

2. Why Full Public Disclosure Is Necessary

Scientific Status of Modelling Work

Economies of Scale and Scope in Modelling

Institutional Impediments and Institutional Innovation

3. Lessons from the Impact Project Experience

4. Continuing Need for Well Documented, Publicly Accessible Models

Antecedents of Existing Models and the Knowledge Base for Modelling

Summary and Conclusion

References

Chapter 12: CGE-Based Analysis of Trade Policies: Capturing the “Devil” in the Details

Abstract

Introduction

General Equilibrium at the Tariff-Line Level

Trade Policies

Box 2. An Excerpt from the Model Code (TABLO File)

General Equilibrium For Disaggregated Sectors

Disaggregating Factors in CGE Models

Linking Global CGE with “Sub-Regional” Models

Multi-Country CGE Models with Multiple Households

Conclusion

References

Chapter 13: CGE Methodology and Trade-Technology Nexus Redux: Illustrations and Synthesis for Modelling and Policy Analysis

Abstract

1. Introduction and Overview

2. The Theme and the Context

Trade and Growth Interconnections

Issues Unearthed from the Stylized Facts

3. CGE Model and Its Prototypes: Synthesis of

Two Typical Models

Brief Overview of General Features

Comparative Statics, Closure and Investment:

An Expository Discussion Based on ORANI and GTAP

Nature of the Models

Length of Run and Closure in ORANI

Investment in ORANI

Production of Fixed Capital

Allocation of Investment across industries

Concepts of Saving and Investment in GTAP

Global Saving and Global Investment

Investment Allocation Mechanism

Equilibration of Rate of Return [ror(r)] Mechanism

Fixed Regional Portfolio Mechanism

Implementation of the Alternative Mechanisms

Analyzing Trade-Growth-Development Issues:

Illustrative Results from a Trade-Technology

Nexus CGE Model

Stylized Evidence

A Stylized Model

GTAP Implementation

Explanation of Simulation Results

Summary and Conclusion

References

Index