Earthquake Hazard, Risk and Disasters

Author: Shroder   John F.;Wyss   Max  

Publisher: Elsevier Science‎

Publication year: 2014

E-ISBN: 9780123964724

P-ISBN(Paperback): 9780123948489

P-ISBN(Hardback):  9780123948489

Subject: P315 seismology;X4 Disasters and Prevention

Language: ENG

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Description

Earthquake Hazard, Risk, and Disasters presents the latest scientific developments and reviews of research addressing seismic hazard and seismic risk, including causality rates, impacts on society, preparedness, insurance and mitigation. The current controversies in seismic hazard assessment and earthquake prediction are addressed from different points of view. Basic tools for understanding the seismic risk and to reduce it, like paleoseismology, remote sensing, and engineering are discussed.

  • Contains contributions from expert seismologists, geologists, engineers and geophysicists selected by a world-renowned editorial board
  • Presents the latest research on seismic hazard and risk assessment, economic impacts, fatality rates, and earthquake preparedness and mitigation
  • Includes numerous illustrations, maps, diagrams and tables addressing earthquake risk reduction
  • Features new insights and reviews of earthquake prediction, forecasting and early warning, as well as basic tools to deal with earthquake risk

Chapter

1.3 LIMITATIONS, UNCERTAINTIES, AND BEST PRACTICE

1.4 CONCLUSIONS

REFERENCES

Chapter 2 - The Capabilities of Earth Observation to Contribute along the Risk Cycle

2.1 INTRODUCTION

2.2 CAPABILITIES OF REMOTE SENSING FOR ASSESSING AND MAPPING EARTHQUAKE RISK AND DAMAGE

2.3 CONCLUSION AND INFERRING SUGGESTIONS FOR EO ON EARTHQUAKE ANALYSIS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

Chapter 3 - Disaster-Risk Reduction through the Training of Masons and Public Information Campaigns: Experience of SDC's “C ...

3.1 INTRODUCTION

3.2 CONTEXT

3.3 IDENTIFICATION OF THE MOST APPROPRIATE CONSTRUCTION TECHNIQUE

3.4 IDENTIFICATION OF PARTNERS FOR THE TRAINING OF MASONS

3.5 DEVELOPMENT OF TRAINING CONTENT AND TRAINING SETUP

3.6 ADAPTATION OF THE TRAINING TO VARYING SITUATIONS

3.7 A PUBLIC INFORMATION CAMPAIGN TO ACCOMPANY THE TRAINING

3.8 CONCLUSION AND LESSONS TO BE LEARNED

REFERENCES

Chapter 4 - The Most Useful Countermeasure Against Giant Earthquakes and Tsunamis—What We Learned From Interviews of 164 Ts ...

4.1 INTRODUCTION

4.2 LOCATIONS OF THE INTERVIEW CITIES AND CHARACTERISTICS OF THE INTERVIEWEES

4.3 EVACUATION BEHAVIORS

4.4 THE EFFECT OF THE CURRENT TECHNOLOGY FOR DISASTER PREVENTION

4.5 CONSTRUCTION OF SEA EMBANKMENTS OR BREAKWATERS IN THE BAY

4.6 DISCUSSIONS ON THE EFFECT OF THE BREAKWATERS

4.7 ROLE OF ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS IN DISASTER PREVENTION

4.8 CONCLUSION

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

Chapter 5 - Aggravated Earthquake Risk in South Asia: Engineering versus Human Nature

5.1 INTRODUCTION: HAZARD, RISK, AND AGGRAVATED RISK

5.2 STATISTICS OF EARTHQUAKE FATALITIES

5.3 PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH ASSESSMENTS OF SEISMIC HAZARDS

5.4 A SUMMARY OF EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS IN AND SURROUNDING THE INDIAN PLATE

5.5 CONSERVATISM AND DENIAL AS AGGRAVATED RISK

5.6 EARTHQUAKE KNOWLEDGE AND ITS APPLICATION

5.7 DISCUSSION—WHO GAINS, WHO LOSES

5.8 CONCLUSIONS

REFERENCES

Chapter 6 - Ten Years of Real-time Earthquake Loss Alerts

6.1 INTRODUCTION

6.2 BRIEF REVIEW OF THE METHODS

6.3 BRIEF REVIEW OF THE DATA SETS

6.4 BRIEF REVIEW OF THE SERVICES PROVIDED

6.5 ERROR SOURCES

6.6 CITY MODELS

6.7 BASIC CONCEPTS

6.8 THE FUTURE OF REAL-TIME ESTIMATES OF LOSSES DUE TO EARTHQUAKES

6.9 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

Chapter 7 - Forecasting Seismic Risk as an Earthquake Sequence Happens

7.1 INTRODUCTION

7.2 SEISMIC RISK

7.3 FORECASTING SEISMIC RISK DURING THE L'AQUILA SEQUENCE

7.4 FORECASTING SEISMIC RISK FOR THE SEISMO-12 SCENARIO SEQUENCE

7.5 DISCUSSION

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

Chapter 8 - How to Render Schools Safe in Developing Countries?

8.1 INTRODUCTION

8.2 EARTHQUAKE RISK OF NEPAL

8.3 SEISMIC VULNERABILITY OF SCHOOLS IN NEPAL

8.4 REASONS FOR HIGH SEISMIC VULNERABILITY OF SCHOOLS

8.5 MAKING SCHOOLS SAFE AGAINST EARTHQUAKES

8.6 IMPLEMENTATION OF AN SESP

8.7 LESSONS LEARNED

8.8 CONCLUSION

REFERENCES

Chapter 9 - The Socioeconomic Impact of Earthquake Disasters

9.1 INTRODUCTION

9.2 DEVELOPMENT OF A DATABASE TO ASSESS SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF EARTHQUAKES

9.3 SOCIAL LOSSES FROM EARTHQUAKES FROM 1900 TO 2012

9.4 ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM EARTHQUAKES FROM 1900 TO 2012

9.5 CONCLUSION

REFERENCES

Chapter 10 - The Contribution of Paleoseismology to Earthquake Hazard Evaluations

10.1 INTRODUCTION

10.2 MODERN TECHNIQUES FOR PALEOEARTHQUAKE STUDIES

10.3 PALEOSEISMOLOGY AND SEISMIC SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION

10.4 CASE STUDIES WITH LONGEST EARTHQUAKE RECORDS

10.5 PALEOEARTHQUAKE STUDIES AND THEIR INTEGRATION IN SHA

10.6 DISCUSSION—CONCLUSION

REFERENCES

Chapter 11 - The Role of Microzonation in Estimating Earthquake Risk

11.1 INTRODUCTION

11.2 GROUND MOTION ESTIMATE AT THE REGIONAL SCALE

11.3 LOCAL SITE RESPONSE AND MICROZONATION

11.4 LIQUEFACTION

11.5 CASE HISTORIES OF SOME INDIAN MEGACITIES

11.6 INFLUENCE OF MICROZONATION DATA ON RISK ASSESSMENT

11.7 CONCLUSIONS

REFERENCES

Chapter 12 - Why are the Standard Probabilistic Methods of Estimating Seismic Hazard and Risks Too Often Wrong

12.1 INTRODUCTION

12.2 THEORETICAL LIMITS OF PSHA

12.3 PRACTICAL LIMITS OF PSHA

12.4 POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVES TO PSHA: THE NEO-DETERMINISTIC APPROACH (NDSHA)

12.5 PERFORMANCES OF PSHA: THE VALIDATION PROBLEM

12.6 PERFORMANCE OF NDSHA

12.7 ESTIMATES OF SEISMIC RISKS

12.8 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

REFERENCES

Chapter 13 - The Continued Utility of Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Assessment

13.1 INTRODUCTION

13.2 THE LOGIC OF PSHA

13.3 NATURE OF RECENT CRITICISMS OF PSHA

13.4 ADVANCES IN PSH INPUTS

13.5 FUTURE NEEDS

13.6 CONCLUSIONS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

Chapter 14 - Precarious Rocks: Providing Upper Limits on Past Ground Shaking from Earthquakes

14.1 INTRODUCTION

14.2 PBRS ARE PHYSICAL OBJECTS THAT PUT LONG-TERM BOUNDS ON PAST GROUND MOTIONS

14.3 DISTRIBUTION OF PBRS

14.4 APPLICATIONS

14.5 SUMMARY

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

Chapter 15 - Quantifying Improvements in Earthquake-Rupture Forecasts through Testable Models

15.1 INTRODUCTION

15.2 SOME REMARKS ABOUT EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

15.3 FORECAST MODELS

15.4 GRIDDED RATE-BASED FORECASTS

15.5 ALARM-BASED AND REGIONAL FORECASTS

15.6 PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS AND HYBRID MODELS

15.7 SOME COMMON ASSUMPTIONS AND QUESTIONS POSED BY EARTHQUAKE FORECAST MODELS

15.8 THE ROLE OF TESTING EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE MODELS

15.9 DEVELOPING TESTS OF EARTHQUAKE FORECAST MODELS

15.10 TESTING METHODS

15.11 GRIDDED RATE-BASED TESTING

15.12 ALARM-BASED TESTING

15.13 FAULT-BASED TESTING

15.14 STRUCTURED TESTING

15.15 TESTING CENTERS: COLLABORATORY FOR THE STUDY OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTABILITY

15.16 PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS

15.17 OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSIONS

REFERENCES

Chapter 16 - Duties of Earthquake Forecast: Cases and Lessons in China

16.1 INTRODUCTION: (MIS)UNDERSTANDING EARTHQUAKE FORECAST/PREDICTION IN CHINA

16.2 EARTHQUAKE FORECAST/PREDICTION FOR DIFFERENT TIME SCALES: EXAMPLES OF SCIENTIFIC PRODUCTS AND THE MECHANISM OF THEIR GENERA ...

16.3 WITHIN THE LIMIT OF THE CAPABILITY OF EARTHQUAKE FORECAST/PREDICTION: ROLES OF TIME-DEPENDENT SEISMIC-HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN ...

16.4 DECISION-MAKING ISSUES OF EARTHQUAKE FORECAST/PREDICTION

16.5 CONCLUDING REMARKS AND DISCUSSION: EARTHQUAKE FORECAST/PREDICTION AS A BRANCH OF “MODERN” SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

REFERENCES

Chapter 17 - The Experience of Real-Time Earthquake Predictions on Kamchatka

17.1 INTRODUCTION

17.2 SEISMICITY AND SYSTEM OF OBSERVATIONS

17.3 REAL-TIME PREDICTIONS FOR 1998–2012

17.4 DISCUSSION

17.5 PRECURSORS AND PREDICTION OF THE 1997 KRONOTSKY EARTHQUAKE

17.6 CONCLUSION

REFERENCES

Chapter 18 - Times of Increased Probabilities for Occurrence of Catastrophic Earthquakes: 25Years of Hypothesis Testing in ...

18.1 INTRODUCTION

18.2 DEFINITION AND CLASSIFICATION OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONS

18.3 EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION ALGORITHMS M8 AND MSC

18.4 REAL-TIME PREDICTIONS BY THE M8-MSC ALGORITHMS

18.5 GLOBAL TEST OF THE M8-MSC PREDICTIONS

18.6 OTHER M8 ALGORITHM APPLICATIONS

18.7 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

REFERENCES

Chapter 19 - Review of the Nationwide Earthquake Early Warning in Japan during Its First Five Years

19.1 INTRODUCTION

19.2 OPERATION OF JMA EEW

19.3 PERFORMANCE OF JMA EEW

19.4 FEEDBACK ABOUT EEW FROM THE GENERAL PUBLIC

19.5 SUMMARY AND REMARKS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

APPENDIX

Chapter 20 - To What Extent Can Engineering Reduce Seismic Risk?

20.1 INTRODUCTION

20.2 BASIC DEFINITIONS

20.3 WHY CANNOT SEISMIC RISK BE ELIMINATED ENTIRELY?

20.4 ACCEPTABLE SEISMIC RISK

20.5 HOW CAN ENGINEERING REDUCE SEISMIC RISK?

20.6 WHO SHOULD APPLY SEISMIC RISK MITIGATION MEASURES?

20.7 EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

20.8 CONCLUSIONS

REFERENCES

Chapter 21 - Decision Making under Uncertainty: Insuring and Reinsuring Earthquake Risk

21.1 INTRODUCTION: ARE EARTHQUAKES INSURABLE?

21.2 INSURANCE RISK MANAGEMENT

21.3 INSURANCE AND REINSURANCE, TWO SIDES OF THE SAME COIN?

21.4 MANAGING THE UNKNOWN, INSURANCE RISK MODELING

21.5 EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE, HAS IT BEEN SUCCESSFUL?

21.6 GOVERNMENT EARTHQUAKE POOLS

21.7 CONCLUSION

REFERENCES

Index

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