Publisher: Cambridge University Press
E-ISSN: 1469-1825|19|1|37-38
ISSN: 0140-525x
Source: Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Vol.19, Iss.1, 1996-03, pp. : 37-38
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Abstract
Base rates are vital in predicting violent criminal recidivism. However, both lay people given simulated prediction tasks and professionals milking real life predictions appear insensitive to variations in the base rate of violent recidivism. Although there are techniques to help decision makers attend to base rates, increased decision accuracy is better sought in improved actuarial models as opposed to improved clinicians.
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