Improving decision accuracy where base rates matter: The prediction of violent recidivism

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

E-ISSN: 1469-1825|19|1|37-38

ISSN: 0140-525x

Source: Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Vol.19, Iss.1, 1996-03, pp. : 37-38

Disclaimer: Any content in publications that violate the sovereignty, the constitution or regulations of the PRC is not accepted or approved by CNPIEC.

Previous Menu Next

Abstract

Base rates are vital in predicting violent criminal recidivism. However, both lay people given simulated prediction tasks and professionals milking real life predictions appear insensitive to variations in the base rate of violent recidivism. Although there are techniques to help decision makers attend to base rates, increased decision accuracy is better sought in improved actuarial models as opposed to improved clinicians.