Chapter
SECTION 2. HISTORY AND CONTEXT
2.1. The 1999 U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan
2.2. Implementation of the 1999 Science Plan
2.3. Other Relevant Developments Since the 1999 Science Plan
2.4. Successes and Remaining Challenges
SECTION 3. FUNDAMENTAL SCIENCE QUESTIONS
3.1. Question 1: How Do Natural Processes and Human Actions Affect the Carbon Cycle on Land, in the Atmosphere, and in the Oceans?
3.2. Question 2: How Do Policy and Management Decisions Affect the Levels of the Primary Carbon-Containing Gases, Carbon Dioxide and Methane, in the Atmosphere?
3.3. Question 3: How Are Ecosystems, Species, and Natural Resources Impacted by Increasing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations, ahe Associated Changes in Climate, and by Carbon Management Decisions?
3.4. The Critical Role of Observations
3.5. Dealing with Uncertainty
SECTION 4. SCIENCE PLAN GOALS
4.1. Goal 1: Provide Clear and Timely Explanation of Past and Current Variations Observed in Atmospheric CO2 and CH4 – and the Uncertainties Surrounding Them
4.1.2. Progress over the Last Decade
4.1.3. Major Uncertainties
4.1.4. Scientific Directions
Establish a Continuity Plan and Continue Expansion of Carbon Observing Networks
Conduct Manipulative Experiments and Process Studies to Provide Mechanistic Understanding of Responses and Feedbacks to Changing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and Climate
Develop Models Capable of Constraining Process-Based Understanding of Carbon Flux Variability
4.2. Goal 2: Understand and Quantify the Socioeconomic Drivers of Carbon Emissions, and Develop Transparent Methods to Monitor and Verify Those Emissions
4.2.2. Progress over the Last Decade
4.2.3. Major Uncertainties
4.2.4. Scientific Directions
Quantify the Relative Importance of Different Socioeconomic Processes and Their Interactions in Different Parts of the World and at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales
Better Quantify the Potential Range of Future Emissions from Energy and Land Use
Determine How Carbon Prices and Other Policies Affect Socioeconomic Drivers and Emissions
Develop the Tools, Observations, and Models Needed to Quantify and Evaluate Emissions
4.3. Goal 3: Determine and Evaluate the Vulnerability of Carbon Stocks and Flows to Future Climate Change and Human Activity, Emphasizing Potential Positive Feedbacks to Sources or Sinks That Make Climate Stabilization More Critical or More Difficult
4.3.2. Progress over the Last Decade
4.3.3. Major Uncertainties
4.3.4. Scientific Directions
Identify Vulnerable Pools and Flows and Monitor Their Changes, Especially Those That May Change More Rapidly in the Near Future
Understand the Physical, Chemical, and Biological Processes Important in Determining the Degree of Vulnerability of Carbon Pools and Flows, and Build Such Understanding into Diagnostic and Mechanistic Models
Predict the Likelihood, Timing, and Extent of Potential Changes in Vulnerable Carbon Stocks and Flows with Numerical Models and Empirical Methods
Predict the Consequences of Carbon Management and Sequestration Schemes on Vulnerable Pools; Support Carbon Management Goals by Helping to Prioritize the Most Vulnerable Stocks and Flows That Require Management and the Resources That Are Needed
4.4. Goal 4: Predict How Ecosystems, Biodiversity, and Natural Resources Will Change Under Different CO2 and Climate Change Scenarios
4.4.2. Progress over the Last Decade
4.4.3. Major Uncertainties
4.4.4. Scientific Directions
Improve Understanding of, and Ability to Predict, Responses of Ecosystem Productivity, Biodiversity, and Sustainability to Changing Levels of Carbon Dioxide and Other Greenhouse Gases
Determine the Synergistic Effects of Rising CO2 on Ecosystems in the Presence of Altered Patterns of Climate and Associated Changes in Weather, Hydrology, Sea Level, and Ocean Circulation
Enhance Capabilities for Sustained and Integrated Observations of Ecosystems in Support of Scientific Research as Well as Management and Decision Making
4.5. Goal 5: Determine the Likelihood of ‘Success’ and the Potential for Side Effects of Carbon Management Pathways That Might Be Undertaken to Achieve a Low-Carbon Future
4.5.2. Progress over the Last Decade
4.5.3. Major Uncertainties
4.5.4. Scientific Directions
Develop Mechanisms for Evaluating and Integrating Interconnected and Potentially Competing Management Goals within the Context of Carbon Cycle Science
Determine the Impacts of Carbon Management and Sequestration Strategies on Sustainability of Ecosystems and Ecosystem Services, Including Water Resources And Biodiversity
4.6. Goal 6: Address Decision Maker Needs for Current and Future Carbon Cycle Information and Provide Data and Projections That Are Relevant, Credible, and Legitimate for Their Decisions
4.6.2. Progress over the Last Decade
4.6.3. Major Uncertainties
Characterize the Fundamental Dynamics of Decision Making as They Affect Large-Scale Trends and Patterns in Carbon Stocks and Flows
Systematically Address Decision Maker Needs for Carbon Cycle Science Information as They Begin to Incorporate Carbon-Related Factors into Their Decision Making
SECTION 5. SCIENCE PLAN ELEMENTS
5.1. Sustained Observations
5.1.1. Atmospheric Observations
5.1.2. Ocean, Coastal, and Inland Water Observations
5.1.3. Terrestrial Ecosystem Observations
5.1.4. Monitoring and Assessment of Human Systems, Including Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies and Associated Impacts
5.1.5. Remote-Sensing Observations of the Earth System
5.1.6. Mapping Sustained Observations into the Goals
5.2. Process Studies of System Dynamics and Function across Scales
5.2.1. Intensive Process Studies and Field Campaigns
5.2.2. Manipulative Laboratory and Field Studies
5.2.3. Integrative Field Campaigns
5.2.4. Mapping Studies of System Dynamics and Functions into the Goals
5.3. Modeling, Prediction, and Synthesis
5.3.1. Improve Existing Models
5.3.2. Add Human Dimensions to Earth System Models
5.3.3. Augment Synthesis Activities
5.3.4. Mapping of Modeling, Prediction, and Synthesis into the Goals
5.4. Communication and Dissemination
5.4.1. Improve Dialogue among the Decision-Making Community, General Public, and Scientific Community
5.4.2. Develop Appropriate Tools for Communicating Scientific Knowledge to Decision Makers
5.4.3. Evaluate Impact of Scientific Uncertainty on Decision Makers
5.4.4. Mapping Communication and Dissemination into the Goals
5.5. Resource Requirements
SECTION 6. INTERDISCIPLINARY AND INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION AND COOPERATION
6.1. Interdisciplinary Collaboration and Cooperation
6.2. International Collaboration and Cooperation
6.3. Supporting and Stimulating Collaboration and Cooperation
SECTION 7. IMPLEMENTATION AND FUNDING
7.1. Integration of Program Priorities
7.2. Implementation Opportunities and Barriers to Success
7.3.1. Scenario I: Full Investment in Carbon Cycle Research and Observations (~$500M/Yr)
7.3.2. Scenario II: Partial Investment in Expanded Priorities (~$300M/Yr)
7.3.3. Scenario III: No Increased Funding to Support Expanded Priorities (~$200M/Yr)
APPENDIX A: CHARGE TO THE CO-LEADS OF THE CARBON CYCLE SCIENCE WORKING GROUP, AND OVERVIEW OF THE CARBON CYCLE INTERAGENCY WORKING GROUP
A.1. Charge to the co-leads of the Carbon Cycle Science Working Group
A New U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan (CCIWG Approved 18 May 2008)
A.2. Carbon Cycle Interagency Working Group
APPENDIX B: CARBON CYCLE SCIENCE WORKING GROUP MEMBERSHIP
APPENDIX C: OUTREACH ACTIVITIES
APPENDIX D: LIST OF ACRONYMS
Chapter 2 THE CARBON CYCLE: IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONGRESS
CARBON STORAGE, SOURCES, AND SINKS
CARBON FLUX, OR EXCHANGE, WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
How Much Carbon Is Exchanged
How Fast Carbon Is Exchanged
Land Surface-Atmosphere Flux
Carbon Cycle Science: Research Priorities and Congressional Considerations
( Environmental Research Advances )
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