Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Contents

Preface

Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban

Treaty: Background

and Current Developments(

Summary

Most Recent Developments

History

National Positions on Testing and the CTBT

The North Korean Nuclear Tests

The October 2006 Nuclear Test

The May 2009 Nuclear Test

Other North Korean Tests?

The CTBT: Negotiations, Provisions, Entry

into Force, CTBTO Budget

CTBT Negotiations and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty

Key Provisions of the CTBT

International Efforts on Behalf of Entry into Force

Budget of the CTBTO Preparatory Commission

Stockpile Stewardship

CTBT Pros and Cons

The National Academy of Sciences Study and Its Critics

Chronology

For Additional Reading

Appendix. Chronology, 1992-2009

End Notes

Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: Issues and Arguments(

Summary

Introduction

Can the United States Maintain Deterrence

Under the CTBT?

Can the United States Maintain the Nuclear Weapons Enterprise

Without Testing?

Can the United States Maintain Existing Warheads without Testing?

Does Deterrence Require New Warheads That Must Be Tested?

Do U.S. Warheads Require New Surety Features? Is Nuclear Testing Needed to Add Them?

Does the Treaty Provide Adequate Protection

Against Cheating?

What Does the Treaty Ban?

How Capable Is the CTBT Monitoring Regime?

Monitoring Systems and Methods

Seismic Technology

Contending Views

Detection of Radioactive Gases

Detection of Radioactive Particles

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR)

Detecting Collateral Evidence

On-Site Inspections (OSIs): Procedural Aspects

OSIs: Technical Aspects

Additional Evasion Scenarios

Testing Without Attribution

Evading Multiple Sensors

Would Clandestine Testing Confer Military Advantages?

What Risks Does a Nation Run if It Is Caught Cheating?

The CTBT, Nuclear Nonproliferation,

and Nuclear Disarmament

The Treaty’s Technical Contributions to Nonproliferation

“Nuclear Umbrella,” New Weapons, and Nonproliferation

The CTBT and the NPT’s “Grand Bargain”

The CTBT and Nuclear Disarmament

Moratorium and Entry into Force

Conclusion: Alternatives, Packages,

and a Net Assessment

Appendix A. History of Nuclear Testing, Test Bans, and Nonproliferation

Appendix B. Abbreviations

End Notes

Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban

Treaty: Updated “Safeguards”

and Net Assessments(

Summary

Introduction

History of the Safeguards

Deconstructing the Safeguards

Reconstructing the Safeguards

Implementing the Safeguards

Has Past Implementation Been Adequate?

Would Revised Safeguards Be Effectively Implemented?

Issues for Implementation

Nuclear Disarmament, Nuclear Nonproliferation, CTBT Ratification, and Revised Safeguards

Appendix A. Development of the Safeguards58

Conduct of Underground Nuclear Testing or Stockpile Stewardship

Maintenance of Laboratories and “Human Scientific Resources”

Maintenance of Capability to Resume Nuclear Tests Prohibited by Treaties

Conduct of R&D to Improve Treaty Monitoring Capability

Development of Intelligence Programs to Monitor Nuclear Programs of Other Nations

Procedures for Withdrawing from CTBT to Conduct Nuclear Testing

Appendix B. Recommendations by General John Shalikashvili (USA, ret.), 200159

Nuclear Weapons, Non-Proliferation, and the Test Ban Treaty

Monitoring, Verification, and Foreign Nuclear Programs

Stewardship of the U.S. Nuclear Stockpile

Minimizing Uncertainty with a Treaty of Indefinite Duration

Appendix C. Letter and Memorandum from

Senators Kyl, Domenici, and Sessions, 200860

Appendix D.

Recommendations by the Congressional

Commission on the Strategic Posture

of the United States,200961

Recommendations on the Nuclear

Weapons Stockpile:

Recommendations on the Nuclear

Weapons Complex:

Recommendations on the Comprehensive Test

Ban Treaty

End Notes

Index

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