U.S. Consumption after the 2008 Crisis
( IMF Staff Position Notes )
Publication series ： IMF Staff Position Notes
Author： Mr. Jaewoo Lee Pau Rabanal Damiano Sandri
Publisher： INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication year： 2010
E-ISBN: 9781589069367
P-ISBN(Paperback): 9781455222964
Subject： F0 Economics;F8 Finances
Language： ENG
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Description
U.S. household consumption declined sharply in late 2008, marking a departure from thetrend of a steady increase in U.S. consumption as a share of income since the 1980s.Combining econometric and simulation analysis, we estimate that this departure will besustained beyond the crisis: the U.S. household consumption rate will likely declinesomewhat further from its current level, as the saving rate rises to around 6 percent ofdisposable personal income (from nearly 5 percent in 2009). Compared to the pre-crisisyears (200307), this saving rate implies a decline in U.S. private-sector demand on theorder of 3 percentage points of GDP.